Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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doesn't hafta be big...spiders disturb me but they're pretty small.

(waits on stormw's response)
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any one want too pull my Finger



heh heh heh
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


The teasers by StormW are pretty good lol
LOL! I see some weaknesses all over the place, but when he says that something "disturbs" him it has to be big.
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Quoting StormW:


One thing disturbs me about that graphic.


Uh oh, you said something similar to Levi during Alex about that pressure area moving further south into Mexico than previously foreseen... o_O
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i smell JFV

DONT[shakes Finger]
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Quoting StormW:


One thing disturbs me about that graphic.


would that be that far west tongue of low pressure that trails offa the baja peninsula?
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398. xcool
lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What is it?


The teasers by StormW are pretty good lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah that wave is in the same general vicinity where Felix became a tropical depression. But it's almost guaranteed that this tropical wave will not amount to anything near what Felix accomplished. At this point in time we have no idea whether or not this wave will develop, at this point is honestly is all speculation. What we have to do is continue to watch the wave and soon enough we'll know what it will amount to.



ok
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394. xcool
AlexEmmett WELCOME :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


One thing disturbs me about that graphic.
What is it?
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Quoting xcool:
AlexEmmett W CAB

ok thanks
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391. hamla
my bonnie lies over the ocean
my bonnie lies over the sea
does anyone know the rest??/
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390. xcool
AlexEmmett W CAB
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Hey StormW! Ready for the 4th? Gonna take it easy here in Brandon, looks like nothing's going to happen in the next few days that we need to watch locally.
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
Good evening Storm.
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Quoting Levi32:
Disturbance south of Jamaica lookin' mighty fine tonight as sunset approaches. If convection remains consistent and this consolidated overnight, we could see a surface low make a run at forming under this area during the night.

I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow and see a big "L" in that area on surface analysis. Like you said, let's see if convection persists before making any calls.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's the W Caribbean wave

Thanks
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The low-level steering has me concerned a little bit in the short-term....as it could get our little friend south of Jamaica up in latitude before reaching the Yucatan. Again, if it hits 20N before the Yucatan, then Texas has to worry.

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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Hey Storm.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



09 do you think that wave is in the same spot where Felix pop up???
Yeah that wave is in the same general vicinity where Felix became a tropical depression. But it's almost guaranteed that this tropical wave will not amount to anything near what Felix accomplished. At this point in time we have no idea whether or not this wave will develop, at this point is honestly is all speculation. What we have to do is continue to watch the wave and soon enough we'll know what it will amount to.
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wow..south florida is getting pounded by some heavy precip right now. And the popcorn storms and really beginning to pop
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

which wave is this


That's the W Caribbean wave
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Our 100 degree days look to be over for a while!


Record Report

Statement as of 04:32 PM EDT on July 03, 2010

... Record low temperature set at Macon...

a record low temperature of 63 degrees was set at Macon today.
This breaks the old record of 64 set in 2008.

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Quoting xcool:

which wave is this
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Levi, please pursue a career in meteorology, you understanding of atmospheric dynamics will make you an EXCELLENT forecaster :o).


Well thanks. I plan on it, somehow.
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Quoting hydrus:
Only 144 hrs? You need this instead...Link:)


LOL, that is probably less accurate than Artificial Intelligence.
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372. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Disturbance south of Jamaica lookin' mighty fine tonight as sunset approaches. If convection remains consistent and this consolidated overnight, we could see a surface low make a run at forming under this area during the night.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



but wish wave will they do it with

MAYBE A THREE OF A KIND
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think we'll see an invest out of the wave in the western Caribbean first, but the area that possesses the higher chance of becoming a named storm is the one by the lesser Antilles.



09 do you think that wave is in the same spot where Felix pop up???
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but wish wave will they do it with
I think we'll see an invest out of the wave in the western Caribbean first, but the area that possesses the higher chance of becoming a named storm is the one by the lesser Antilles.
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TAZ do we really want to see OZ all wet and sweaty agian that was more scaring than trying to watch rosie odonald eat a donut
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

lol lucky but in florida the rain gets u


I know, I'm just south of Tampa.
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Quoting xcool:
HERE COME 96L



but wish wave will they do it with
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Quoting oakland:


I had a 70% chance today in the 34222 zip code and haven't had any rain at all.

lol lucky but in florida the rain gets u
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tures me that same wave is starting out where Felix is
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Quoting Levi32:


Well it was an area of building heat and thunderstorms due to just flat-out low pressure over hot water, which got enhanced by a TUTT low, but that TUTT low backed away to the southwest and started ventilating the area as the tropical wave started approaching. That TUTT low is now gone, but the area is left well-ventilated, and poses a big problem.

Here's another thought....in theory this disturbance should stay as far south as Alex in the Bay of Campeche, but if the disturbance forms a low soon and far enough to the north, if it makes it up to latitude 20N before reaching the Yucatan, then Texas will have to look out.

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Levi, please pursue a career in meteorology, you understanding of atmospheric dynamics will make you an EXCELLENT forecaster :o).
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Quoting AlexEmmett:
OH yah my 4th is ruined its a 70% chance of rain in the 33480 zip code


Maybe not- I had a 70% chance today in the 34222 zip code and haven't had any rain at all.
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360. xcool
HERE COME 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
359. xcool
washingaway YEP
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Quoting Tazmanian:
that 2nd wave is starting out where Felix is

allright people take it easy it doesnt start until the weird geeky guy at the nhc says it is
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DECREASE AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE 4 PM ISSUANCE AS MOST BAYOUS AND RIVERS ARE ON THE
WAY DOWN AND RAINFALL TODAY HAS BEEN MODERATE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN DECREASES. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY NEAR 2.00 INCHES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FEEL DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY WILL HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN. SUBTLE CAPPING ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK WEST ON MON LEAVING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALSO MIGRATE WEST WITH THE SFC LOW/WEAKNESS OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY. RAISED POPS ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WED-FRI WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND APPROACH THE MEXICAN COAST BY
SATURDAY. AGAIN...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LOWER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
RISE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING BY NEXT WEEKEND. 43

Doesn't seem like this forecaster is to concerned about 2 of the features that are being discussed today.

A snipet of the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion from 3:27PM CDT today. Here we go AGAIN:

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO POSSIBLE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN GULF. CURRENTLY THERE IS A NON-TROPICAL
LOW 150 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH A COLD-CORE UPPER
LOW AND IS NESTED WITHIN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT IS MOVING
WEST. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE IT
MAY TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL LOW. MODELS GENERALLY
TAKE THIS SYSTEM UP INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY TUE-WED...
PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST TO IMPACT RAIN CHANCES HERE. THE SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. SEVERAL
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
WEEK...WITH THE CANADIAN INDICATING LANDFALL NEAR HOU ON WED AND
THE ECMWF SOUTH OF BRO ON FRI
. THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW
RATHER WEAK BUT HAS IT NEAR CRP BY FRI. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
ANYTHING SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE...THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER SLUG OF 2.5
INCH PWS INTO TEXAS BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR THE
FORECAST WILL TREND TEMPS HIGHER TO NEAR CLIMO AND KEEP SOME
CONSERVATIVE 20 POPS GOING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

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95L may form a new circulation to SE.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Is that a Tutt Low being fed a tropical wave??


Well it was an area of building heat and thunderstorms due to just flat-out low pressure over hot water, which got enhanced by a TUTT low, but that TUTT low backed away to the southwest and started ventilating the area as the tropical wave started approaching. That TUTT low is now gone, but the area is left well-ventilated, and poses a big problem.

Here's another thought....in theory this disturbance should stay as far south as Alex in the Bay of Campeche, but if the disturbance forms a low soon and far enough to the north, if it makes it up to latitude 20N before reaching the Yucatan, then Texas will have to look out.
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that 2nd wave is starting out where Felix is
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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