Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


are we expecting development in this area

big difference is that 93L had a medium chance of development at the time of the pic you posted; this area now isn't even an invest


Yeah this is farther behind Alex in development, another reason it may stay as far south as Alex. Then again it may not be so far behind if it moves northwest into the NW Caribbean instead of west which would give it more time over the Caribbean than Alex had after this point.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think they should shade this area yellow at 8PM.


And you know how the NHC has been this year, if it makes it to 10% it'll be declared an invest, they've done it with every 10% or higher this year so far.
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dirtleg I'll second that
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Oh, ok. So we're just going through all the different possibilities this thing has. And about your image comparison, 93L was tagged at the time of that image, why isn't 96L tagged yet lol. Not enough model support? Less favorable conditions?


Well 93L had a closed low at the time. This doesn't. They will want to see more than just ESE winds running under those thunderstorms. It may make a run at forming a surface low tonight.
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Quoting aquak9:
MH09, I've been here since they first opened the blogs, and I'm still like "huh?"


I'll second that one, aquak! lol
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


are we expecting development in this area

big difference is that 93L had a medium chance of development at the time of the pic you posted; this area now isn't even an invest


I've been wondering that as well.
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Quoting aquak9:
so what is all so disturbing about this?

is it because it has so many similar characteristics, developmental-wise, that it could be a copycat of Alex?

or are we simply disturbed for the sake of being disturbed?

Nature Never copys itself completly
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think they should shade this area yellow at 8PM.



and the wave be hide that and the wave be hid that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting Levi32:


I did mention this morning that it is likely to stay as far south as Alex, but I'm bringing up the possibility that it doesn't, because there is more room in the steering currents now for more of a NW move than there was for Alex. In theory, it would seem that this would take the Alex path, but there is room for it to take a route farther north.


Oh, ok. So we're just going through all the different possibilities this thing has. And about your image comparison, 93L was tagged at the time of that image, why isn't 96L tagged yet lol. Not enough model support? Less favorable conditions?
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Quoting StormW:


I hear ya...I don't even think it was at the northern end of the wave axis. Although this is the 12Z Surface Analysis

Here's the 18z Storm:

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so what is all so disturbing about this?

is it because it has so many similar characteristics, developmental-wise, that it could be a copycat of Alex?

or are we simply disturbed for the sake of being disturbed?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


are we expecting development in this area

big difference is that 93L had a medium chance of development at the time of the pic you posted; this area now isn't even an invest
I think they should shade this area yellow at 8PM.
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Quoting Levi32:


Driving me nuts how it's doing that all over again.....this disturbance wasn't even created by a pre-existing feature. The tropical wave coming into it now isn't the source and is only adding to it. It's just like typhoon development again.


are we expecting development in this area

big difference is that 93L had a medium chance of development at the time of the pic you posted; this area now isn't even an invest
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I've been lurking a lot and I read earlier that this would most likely go farther south than Alex, with part of the reason being the same set up, and the other part being that it would most likely be weaker because of the upwelled waters in the wake of Alex.. don't tell me that isn't the case anymore lol. Not that it really matters to me in terms of effects, MX people are equal to TX people, are equal to LA people, and I'm several miles inland in GA so yeah XD. But it does matter to me in terms of learning :)


I did mention this morning that it is likely to stay as far south as Alex, but I'm bringing up the possibility that it doesn't, because there is more room in the steering currents now for more of a NW move than there was for Alex. In theory, it would seem that this would take the Alex path, but there is room for it to take a route farther north.
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Quoting aquak9:
MH09, I've been here since they first opened the blogs, and I'm still like "huh?"
Lol, luckily I've learned some stuff, but sometimes they start talking about the weirdest things.
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Quoting Levi32:
Pre-Alex 21z June 24th:



Current disturbance 21z July 3rd:


Ok now that's disturbing. Thank God this wave doesn't have the conditions Alex had ahead of itself (colder SSTs, etc...)
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Quoting StormW:


Same monsoonal flow...heat and moisture from the SE.


Driving me nuts how it's doing that all over again.....this disturbance wasn't even created by a pre-existing feature. The tropical wave coming into it now isn't the source and is only adding to it. It's just like typhoon development again.
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Quoting Levi32:
Pre-Alex 21z June 24th:



Current disturbance 21z July 3rd:




That's incredibly similar, same environment mostly I'm guessing? Almost feels like mother nature copy/pasted her clouds, lol.
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MH09, I've been here since they first opened the blogs, and I'm still like "huh?"
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Quoting Levi32:
Pre-Alex 21z June 24th:



Current disturbance 21z July 3rd:



that is disturibing
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah...even if it's just for the next 2 days to get this up to 20N before hitting the Yucatan. The ridge doesn't extend as far west into the central US as it was during Alex, and thus there is more room for a NW curve.


I've been lurking a lot and I read earlier that this would most likely go farther south than Alex, with part of the reason being the same set up, and the other part being that it would most likely be weaker because of the upwelled waters in the wake of Alex.. don't tell me that isn't the case anymore lol. Not that it really matters to me in terms of effects, MX people are equal to TX people, are equal to LA people, and I'm several miles inland in GA so yeah XD. But it does matter to me in terms of learning :)
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that disturbance is looking better and better evere new loop if this keeps going we may have 96L by AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting Levi32:
Pre-Alex 21z June 24th:



Current disturbance 21z July 3rd:




are those 2 different pics? lol
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Quoting aquak9:
could I possibly be any more lost
That's nothing. When I first came here that Drak and Levi had there discussions I just used to be like, "What????". Lol.
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Pre-Alex 21z June 24th:



Current disturbance 21z July 3rd:


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could I possibly be any more lost
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
No, we aint pulling ya finger taz ole boy, we don't want to gas our mets out.



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting StormW:


Well, the pattern hasn't changed in almost 2 1/2 months...what makes you think they'll change drastically in the next 2?
Uh-oh. I get what you mean.
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that wave down there is looking better and better evere new loop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting Hurricanes101:


In other words these current steering would take the system more towards Texas than Mexico if it held?
Pretty much yeah.
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No, we aint pulling ya finger taz ole boy, we don't want to gas our mets out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24253
Quoting Hurricanes101:


In other words these current steering would take the system more towards Texas than Mexico if it held?


Yeah...even if it's just for the next 2 days to get this up to 20N before hitting the Yucatan. The ridge doesn't extend as far west into the central US as it was during Alex, and thus there is more room for a NW curve.
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406- a "thread the needle" situation, Levi?

Like I know ANYTHING about steering maps...
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Quoting StormW:


The steering pattern hasn't really changed since May.
Mmmm...hmmm...Ok...I'm still not catching on.
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Quoting Levi32:
This really bugs me....compare the shallow steering currents during pre-Alex south of Jamaica with our current disturbance. See the difference in the trade wind flow in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico?

Pre-Alex:



Current:



In other words these current steering would take the system more towards Texas than Mexico if it held?
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This really bugs me....compare the shallow steering currents during pre-Alex south of Jamaica with our current disturbance. See the difference in the trade wind flow in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico?

Pre-Alex:



Current:

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405. xcool
kaboom
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
doesn't hafta be big...spiders disturb me but they're pretty small.

(waits on stormw's response)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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