Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ElConando:


What he post?

JFV ON a toliet with the shower curtian of "ra"tardedness
Quoting ElConando:


What he post?


The scariest pic of JFV... ah screw it the scariest pic of ANYTHING you'll ever see in your LIFE. err well it would've been if you had seen it
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552. JLPR2
Quoting StormW:


Well, my thinking right now is, if we don't see a change...anything that develops 15N or below becomes game for those areas you mentioned...At 20N, FL and the Eastern Seaboard. Not saying this is a definite, but plausible. Take yer pick.







I dont like the alternatives LOL!
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Re: 526 Maybe if you quit shouting and say pretty please to everyone, yrsb.

Don't worry about me, I'm just lurking now.
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550. xcool
i take 2004 & 1998
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting FLdewey:
Oops wrong map...

OOPS REPORTED
Quoting aquak9:
Fldewey- now I am REALLY disturbed.


What he post?
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Quoting RobertM320:


I'd question that. Plywoodstatenative has been around for awhile. If the handle is "ThePlywoodState", that would be different altogether.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A surface low is trying to form there.



Agreed.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Oops wrong map...




too late you been re ported
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In all honesty thank you for taking that pic off.. I am now at your mercy lol
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Quoting FLdewey:
Oops wrong map...
I digress.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
542. xcool
<<< lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting xcool:
FLdewey lmao lmao

plywoodstate is not jfv because JFV wouldnt have the balls to call me the N-WORD
As a definite amateur observer but a long time sailor,,that area in the W. Carribean is looking nasty......Probably an investigate soon?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Oops wrong map...


LOL!!!!
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OMG
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While that pic is hilarious

I think I would die of shock if FLdewey ever posted anything about weather lol
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Fldewey- now I am REALLY disturbed.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


tcweb folder


Thanks.
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532. xcool
FLdewey lmao lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
well hows the weather
Quoting FLdewey:


OH MY GOD
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dirtleg- hey...easy on the shower curtain humor, we have a HelloKitty one upstairs.

PlywoodStateNative is a sweet heart. Folks get confused when screen names seem familiar.

hey keeper- I'm more of a LinkinPark person, anyways...
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah, plus it's more consolidated.

6 hours ago:


3 hours ago:


Current:
A surface low is trying to form there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting guygee:
Everyone knows plywoodstate is definitely not JFV. Not sure about you though.

ENOUGH LETS GET BACK TO THE TROPICS AND STOP TALKING ABOUT A STUPID GUY KNOW ONE ON THIS BLOG LIKES

Good god thank u
Quoting Levi32:
In fact the 21z CIMSS maps are the first time that this feature has had a circular vort max instead of the strung-out vorticity field of the monsoon trough. It's trying to form a surface low.


Dangit! you beat me Levi lol
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524. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting Levi32:


Which folder of ATCF do you go into to get the latest position/intensity updates? Like "AL900612 BEST 24.0N 90.0W 35kt"......something like that. I don't use that site often enough to know where everything is.


tcweb folder
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Quoting JDSmith:


Plywood state has been here a while. Not JFV.


I'd question that. Plywoodstatenative has been around for awhile. If the handle is "ThePlywoodState", that would be different altogether.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


then it should be an invest and have some sort of circle on it

I cannot get on the atcf site though to check


I can't get on the atcf site either.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

this is the real PLY WOODSTATES handle;
plywoodstatenative



hmmmmmm...............ok
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Impressive vorticity.



Persistent convective activity.



Good UL Divergence



Improving LL Convergence
-----
Looks good to me. We should see the NHC respond to this AOI relatively soon if they haven't already.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


then it should be an invest and have some sort of circle on it

I cannot get on the atcf site


Which folder of ATCF do you go into to get the latest position/intensity updates? Like "AL900612 BEST 24.0N 90.0W 35kt"......something like that. I don't use that site often enough to know where everything is.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


then it should be an invest and have some sort of circle on it

I cannot get on the atcf site
Just wait, the system is much more organized than it was a 2PM, I think we'll see an invest tonight.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Levi32:
850mb vorticity has been increasing all day SSW of Jamaica, under the heaviest thunderstorms.



Yeah, plus it's more consolidated.

6 hours ago:


3 hours ago:


Current:
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Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
Plywood state is JFV...again
Everyone knows plywoodstate is definitely not JFV. Not sure about you though.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am looking forword too the new TWO

Should be Verry interesting
Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmmmmmmm

this is the real PLY WOODSTATES handle;
plywoodstatenative
am looking forword too the new TWO
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I'm thinking that a surface low pressure may try to develop inside the pink square below sometime tonight.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I might be JFV's dad. I always say it takes one to know one Tazz.
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Quoting Levi32:
700mb and 500mb vorticity show that this disturbance is already closer to vertically-stacked than pre-Alex was at this point, and thus this system we have now will not have nearly as much struggle trying to get together if it tries to develop. Typhoon-like developments are all gradual, but this one could be faster than Alex was.

700mb vorticity:



500mb vorticity:



then it should be an invest and have some sort of circle on it

I cannot get on the atcf site though to check
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In fact the 21z CIMSS maps are the first time that this feature has had a circular vort max instead of the strung-out vorticity field of the monsoon trough. It's trying to form a surface low.
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Quoting Levi32:
700mb and 500mb vorticity show that this disturbance is already closer to vertically-stacked than pre-Alex was at this point, and thus this system we have now will not have nearly as much struggle trying to get together if it tries to develop. Typhoon-like developments are all gradual, but this one could be faster than Alex was.

700mb vorticity:



500mb vorticity:




yup
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You guys have fun watching the "disturbances" and have a great one. Back later I'll try to find some hip waders in a nice color that I like. (Pink or purple or something).
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Quoting Makoto1:


You have a point... I do think they're handing the invest tag out more, however. Overall, that's good, because there's more model runs on systems that may develop.


Yeah, I sure don't have a problem with extra model runs! haha
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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