Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting gordydunnot:
Paranoia will destroy ya.



you are JFV
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting Makoto1:


I'll have to read it more closely but it looks like invests are showing up more if that's right.


I misunderstood your post then, that won't indicate quantity. Quantity is really an individual year thing, which from memory is in the 30-50 a year timeframe. Taz always tracks it with his develop/bust list.
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Quoting Tazmanian:


i saw ok then

allright will 96L be born
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm telling.... I'm telling!!!

Taz it's "KNOW" ... not "NO" At least whine with proper grammar. ;)

Please leave Taz ALONE. Some people try very, very hard to be a part of this group & learn. We are here to learn about weather. Not criticize peoples skill levels or abilities. Some people are great spellers, some are not. Leave that young man alone, or you are going to get banned. We have much respect for Taz, he is a great guy, please BACK OFF!
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Paranoia will destroy ya.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh-oh, F5 time...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting AlexEmmett:

check ur email it explanes


i saw ok then
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting ElConando:
That wave looks quite potent.
which one?:)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



the way you : Quote evere post that some one makes that how i can tell

check ur email it explanes
That wave looks quite potent.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

how could i be JFV



the way you : Quote evere post that some one makes that how i can tell
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting JLPR2:


XD n/p But I guess I'm due, 12 years without a hurricane is a long time :P
Jeanny was becoming a hurricane when it made landfall in Puerto Rico in 2004,almost a hurricane but as soon as she touch the Mona Canal the winds increase to 80mph, in Aguadilla we felt the winds as the eyes cross over us.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think you are JFV AlexEmmett

how could i be JFV
Quoting AlexEmmett:

i agree haha it too much



i think you are JFV AlexEmmett
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


From last years Verification Report the NHC indicated that for 2009 the forecasts showed a conservative bias, however for the 3 year combined period 2007-2008, no bias was observed.


I'll have to read it more closely but it looks like invests are showing up more if that's right.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok, well I'm out until the topic returns to meteorology.

i agree haha it too much
Ok, well I'm out until the topic returns to meteorology.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm telling.... I'm telling!!!

Taz it's "KNOW" ... not "NO" At least whine with proper grammar. ;)

ok you win get on topic
Quoting Tazmanian:



you no you can get banned for makeing therts like that you been re ported

ok well now that thats said lets get back to the tropics like now we actually have 3 things to watch these 3 thing dont include the blogs blood pressure
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Classic trough split leaves some energy and develops. The system eventually becomes a tropical storm and makes landfall in northern Florida.
Here it is making landfall at 96 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Makoto1:


What I'm wondering is whether the percentages are more conservative or the invest are tagged more often. I'm guessing the latter but has anyone around longer noticed which?


From last years Verification Report the NHC indicated that for 2009 the forecasts showed a conservative bias, however for the 3 year combined period 2007-2008, no bias was observed.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

No body get any ideas i will hurt u if u post such crap



you no you can get banned for makeing therts like that you been re ported
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
578. xcool
StormW TRUE THAT.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Update to blog rules

Every time someone brings up JFV they have pay the site 40 bucks and get a 36 hr ban
evening all....enjoyed most of the day w/o showers. Now I see Doc has mentioned watching 95L...hope it turns into nothing. We don't need anymore rain and the oil doesn't need any wind!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what the heck is that mode run forcasting off the coast of FL
Classic trough split leaves some energy and develops. The system eventually becomes a tropical storm and makes landfall in northern Florida.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
574. xcool
JLPR2 LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Would you PLEASE, AlexEmmett, QUIT bringing up the troll???
Cuz right now, it looks like YOU are trolling.
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571. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 soorry mybad


XD n/p But I guess I'm due, 12 years without a hurricane is a long time :P
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
#528, that was like opening one of those emails where the sender tells you to turn up the sound and then a scary picture pops out at you! I need to go get a beer now!

PRETTY
Quoting AlexEmmett:
who pissed of mother nature my moneys on BP



JFV DID IT
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z NOGAPS takes the wave currently in the western Caribbean through the Yucatan channel, and then consequently into the GOM. It makes landfall as a considerable system around the Texas/Louisiana border.

NOGAPS 18z 48 hours - Notice the system in the middle of the Yucatan channel.




what the heck is that mode run forcasting off the coast of FL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
#528, that was like opening one of those emails where the sender tells you to turn up the sound and then a scary picture pops out at you! I need to go get a beer now!
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who pissed of mother nature my moneys on BP
oh well, I will be back later

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541. Each ain't good in their own way.
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563. IKE
Monitoring the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean

Jul 3, 2010 4:24 PM

The remnants of Alex continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of Texas and the southern Plains of the United States. There are no organized tropical systems within the Atlantic Basin at this time. However, we are monitoring several areas of concern.

An area of low pressure near 27 north, 89 west or roughly 220 miles south of New Orleans remains disorganized. The system is moving west at about 5-10 mph and should slowly turn more northwesterly tonight and tomorrow. Strong shear flowing from north to south over the northeast and north central Gulf of Mexico will remain too strong for possible development during the next 24 hours. This shear is expected to relax over the northern Gulf of Mexico later tomorrow and Monday. If this system moves into this area of decreasing shear there is some chance for slow development tomorrow night and early Monday before the system moves onshore along the upper Texas or western Louisiana coast later Monday or Monday night.

We are also monitoring a large area of disorganized thunderstorms over the central and northwest Caribbean. This area of disturbed weather is being caused by a weakening upper level storm. A tropical wave along 76 west could help create a low level circulation center within this area of disturbed weather during the next few days that could lead to development. Some computer forecast information suggests some chance for tropical development later this coming week over the Bay of Campeche.

We will also continue to monitor a large area of disturbed weather east of Florida. Some computer forecast information suggests some chance for a weakly organized system evolving northeast of the Bahamas around the middle or latter part of next week.

Finally a strong tropical wave oriented northeast to southwest centered roughly along 50 west is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. This system will bring the Lesser Antilles gusty winds and heavier rainfall Sunday night, Monday into Tuesday of next week. Development of this system is not expected within the next couple of days. However, conditions might become more favorable for development of this system once it reaches the central Caribbean later next week.

By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z NOGAPS takes the wave currently in the western Caribbean through the Yucatan channel, and then consequently into the GOM. It makes landfall as a considerable system around the Texas/Louisiana border.

NOGAPS 18z 48 hours - Notice the system in the middle of the Yucatan channel.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting FLdewey:


th ank yo u for re porting my po st. I didn't mean to get you all hot and bothered, I know you're a bit infatuated with da JFV.

he did it i just said it as a joke well played sir but post more on topic next time
Quoting Hurricanes101:
ok now I got into the atcf site

no new invest lol



not yet any way but i have a feeling we will soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
558. xcool
JLPR2 soorry mybad
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
ok now I got into the atcf site

no new invest lol
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556. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
i take 2004 & 1998


you want me to loose power and trees here? XD LOL
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Quoting ElConando:


What he post?

JFV ON a toliet with the shower curtian of "ra"tardedness

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.