Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:
This is all too familiar....

am i high or is this disavo
Quoting StormTop5000:
Weird in here...




hey look guys its STORMTOP
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WNW into the GOM

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
651. SLU
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Alex II?
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650. xcool
Levi32 i agree & not good
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
this one would be even more bad be come its going right overe the oil pizza and its would going overe the loop eddy
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Quoting kmanislander:


It certainly does but different steering this time. No BOC for this feature. More likely through the Yucatan channel.


Scary....BOC is still possible but the models showing that were also showing low development farther south than where the current vort max is setting up. This has more potential to be something Texas should worry about.,
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Satellite imagery along with MIMIC TPW, and CIMSS vorticity products indicate that a long anticipated tropical disturbance has begun to develop in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea with broad cyclonic turning noted south of Jamaica or at approximately 16N 78.5W. This disturbance, soon to be declared 96L, is embedded in an envelop of deep moisture. In addition, the disturbance is in a very low shear environment thanks to a broad upper-level anti-cyclonic circulation aloft which will ventilate it. Soon to be 96L is also in a widespread area of 28-30C waters. Due to the aforementioned parameters in place along with strong model support from the ECMWF, GFS, GFSP, CMC, NAM, DGEX, SHEF, ECMWF ensembles, and CMC ensembles a tropical depression is likely to develop in the next 2 days with a high chance of an eventual upgrade to tropical storm status. 96L is being steered by sub-tropical high pressure to its north and will be throughout its lifetime. All interests from Houston, Texas to Tampico, Mexico need to keep a close eye on the wear-abouts of this potential system.

-Dylan(SevereHurricane)
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Weird in here...
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Quoting kmanislander:


It certainly does but different steering this time. No BOC for this feature. More likely through the Yucatan channel.
Agree. Look at the 18z NOGAPS, it depicts everything I'm seeing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
This is all too familiar....
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
U guys r good!
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Quoting belizeit:
I see a invest comming by morning can any one tell me if it will develop before reaching the yucaton paninsula i know the gfs was bringing it pretty close to me in 48 hrs but what do other models say
Current steering would suggest WNW/NW motion through the Yucatan channel, guess we'll have to see how things play out.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
639. xcool
i cannot wait Invest 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


Good evening kman! Looks like round 2.


It certainly does but different steering this time. No BOC for this feature. More likely through the Yucatan channel.
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Quoting sarahjola:
where we live it is 6:38:)

oh good point
I see a invest comming by morning can any one tell me if it will develop before reaching the yucaton paninsula i know the gfs was bringing it pretty close to me in 48 hrs but what do other models say
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

what its 7:36 dude try 8
where we live it is 6:38:)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I agree and thanks for stating that.

Taz is a real cool dude, when it comes to certain aspects of meteorology he is very, very bright. People need to focus on learning & sharing tropical weather/ weather facts and knowledge & just respect people. It is called treating people the way you want to be treated.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
There we go....Invest 96L should be out at 0z if their pattern holds of declaring an invest every time there's a yellow circle on the TWO.
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96L soon too follow
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Expect 96L at any time now...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Personally... I think they got the 10 & 20 percentages backwards.
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Quoting Levi32:
Deep convection going off near the center of highest vorticity.



Indeed. The vort is now focusing to the SSW of Jamaica and really firing up the deep convection. Cloud tops over 50,000 feet now

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Bordonaro haven't seen you in awhile how's that big extended family, hope all is well. Any take on the system south of Cuba I think it's going to surprise.
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wow first we have a jfv attack, then two invest in the first few days of july im going to buy a difib for the blog maybe a shock treatment machine to
624. xcool
i mean 8 .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
10% chance as of 7:34pm
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 032334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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.
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Quoting xcool:
Levi32/ i would not be suprised see yellow at 7pm

what its 7:36 dude try 8
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
617. xcool
i was rigth
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
615. xcool
Levi32/ i would not be suprised see yellow at 7pm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:
Deep convection going off near the center of highest vorticity.

Indeed. Is it MCS/MCC time? Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:


It's definitely not spurious!
Looks like "mischief" in the making. LOL
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twc forecasted strong winds here in chickasaw,al

they lied
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Please leave Taz ALONE. Some people try very, very hard to be a part of this group & learn. We are here to learn about weather. Not criticize peoples skill levels or abilities. Some people are great spellers, some are not. Leave that young man alone, or you are going to get banned. We have much respect for Taz, he is a great guy, please BACK OFF!
I agree and thanks for stating that.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

allright will 96L be born



yup 96L will be here soon
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Quoting StormW:


It's definitely not spurious!
LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Deep convection going off near the center of highest vorticity.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
605. JLPR2
Quoting jurakantaino:
Jeanny was becoming a hurricane when it made landfall in Puerto Rico in 2004,almost a hurricane but as soon as she touch the Mona Canal the winds increase to 80mph, in Aguadilla we felt the winds as the eyes cross over us.


but not exactly one while over land :P But it was a close call
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Paranoia will destroy ya.



you are JFV
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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