Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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96L coming very soon. NHC hasn't given an invest status out to every yellow, just the 10% systems so far. The very few 0% systems didn't get invest, but this is a 10% system anyway so lets see if they keep the pattern up.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting skepticall2:


I like Taz he is straight to the point kinda guy.



why thank you my love
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REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
**********************************************************
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
GOES-12 Atlantic IR loop and more
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
697. srada
Local NWS in Wilmington, NC--still mentioning the possiblility off the SC as Dr. Masters did in his blog

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPS TO ABOVE
CLIMO LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. WEST ATLANTIC HIGH
NORMALLY BRINGS MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT ITS WEST-EAST
ELONGATION WILL MAKE THIS A SLOW PROCESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILD
CARD OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL
LOOKING LOW THAT GUIDANCE DEVELOPS IN THE BAHAMAS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS AND IF SO WHERE IT ENDS UP
GOING. JUST IN CASE THE FORECAST WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
ON THURSDAY AND SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DUBIOUS FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED
STATE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



we saw


What can I say, like Pat said last night, it's kinda creepy...
Wonder how long before we have 3 circles (1 off the east coast)?
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AOI/XX/XL
MARK
16.8N/79.7W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Levi32:


Doubt it...look where the ridge is sitting in 4 days. Nothing will curve north into that.

Yeah after doing some research it didn't seem likely to me either. Just wonderin'.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting belizeit:
I belive this new area could probably be a depression by monday already 1 Vortics is very Strong already
2 Very low wind shear
3 Lots of heat building up already 4 No other storms or waves nearby 5 it has enough latitude to take advantage of earths spin
Once this develops a circulation at the surface it will have no problems taking off in the Caribbean. Basically, very low shear + very warm TCHP = Boom.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Is it possible that it could border the periphery of the upper level ridge to it's N/NE and head into the general vicinity of Florida?


Doubt it...look where the ridge is sitting in 4 days. Nothing will curve north into that.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
I said at 7am this morning that i thought that area should be an Invest today......i also said the one behind would be a Invest following and also just SE of Jacksonville....May be wrong.
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Satellite loops would suggest that our AOI is moving between WNW and NW.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
I belive this new area could probably be a depression by monday already 1 Vortics is very Strong already
2 Very low wind shear
3 Lots of heat building up already 4 No other storms or waves nearby 5 it has enough latitude to take advantage of earths spin
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Quoting mikatnight:



we saw
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687. xcool
TampaSpin STOP TAKE MY Forecast LOLOL J/K
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm 96L is near here come on moma push push that newborn is nearly here she going to tag it 96L but she says if it is a she it would be named Bonnie if that other mother decides to name 95L Bonnie and the baby 96L is male then Colin will be the name LOL anyway enough jokes I think PRE-96L will move slowly to the NNW oh yea they have it on the TWO

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.






we no
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Quoting cg2916:


Not yet.


Since when do they post a yellow circle and not put up an Invest..i thought they alwasy do when they posted a Yellow circle.....at least i thought they did..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some broad cyclonic rotation is evident on MIMIC-TPW. Looks like an area of low pressure is trying to develop.


ok this is too wierd like i mean wierd well everyone knows the drill
hmm 96L is near here come on moma push push that newborn is nearly here she going to tag it 96L but she says if it is a she it would be named Bonnie if that other mother decides to name 95L Bonnie and the baby 96L is male then Colin will be the name LOL anyway enough jokes I think PRE-96L will move slowly to the NNW oh yea they have it on the TWO

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


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Good afternoon all.Storm what happened to your magic.I was hoping you found a way to pull the rabbit out of the hat.LOL..I go to work and face grumpy people and come home and have to face grumpy tropical invests.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting TampaSpin:
We just might have 3 named storms between by this time and the next 14 days! I actually see that happening.
I wouldn't be surprised to be up to Colin by July 15th.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
I'm surprised the Caribbean disturbance only gets a 10% chance. Of course, 95L only had a 10% chance yesterday, and today it's chances doubled.
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We don't have 96L yet, we will tomorrow probably.
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925 mb vort showing up well in that area. A surface low could spin up here with not too much difficulty as the deep convection is starting to come together. A few hours ago it was all over the place.

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Some broad cyclonic rotation is evident on MIMIC-TPW. Looks like an area of low pressure is trying to develop.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
We just might have 3 named storms between by this time and the next 14 days! I actually see that happening.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I see we just got Invest 96L


Not yet.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
I have updated my blog on soon to be 96L for anyone that is interested.
I just read your comment and it was very interesting.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8267
Quoting mcluvincane:
If this pre invest were to make it in the Gulf what would the conditions be for further strengthening?

Possible ALEX the II
The NAM has been our new invest, 96L, for a couple of days now. It was also developing Alex earlier on. I know the reputation that NAM has, but it's impressing me so far this year, at least with developement.
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I see we just got Invest 96L
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If this pre invest were to make it in the Gulf what would the conditions be for further strengthening?
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I have updated my blog on soon to be 96L for anyone that is interested.
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Looks like I was dead on yesterday when I said we might get a yellow in the Caribbean at the 8 pm TWO.
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Quoting Levi32:
Mid-level steering is even more northerly.

Is it possible that it could border the periphery of the upper level ridge to it's N/NE and head into the general vicinity of Florida?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting AlexEmmett:

DOnt anwser that lol

ok i was jk but what the heck is with the nhc an contradictions the give it a 10% but say conditions ar favible
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Current steering would suggest WNW/NW motion through the Yucatan channel, guess we'll have to see how things play out.
To navigate the yucaton channel it has to move nw but lats see what the model run suggest i know earlier the gfs took it across the Belize Mexico border
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So are we thinking better Nward bound possibility for 96L or just slightly N of Alex's track?
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661. xcool
AlexEmmett:HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Mid-level steering is even more northerly.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting AlexEmmett:

am i high or is this disavo

DOnt anwser that lol
This area will likely develop much more rapidly than 93L because of several factors, two of those are:

1) Less wind shear.

2) No intrusion from other tropical waves or multiple vorticies stealing energy from the main COC.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Bordonaro:

Taz is a real cool dude, when it comes to certain aspects of meteorology he is very, very bright. People need to focus on learning & sharing tropical weather/ weather facts and knowledge & just respect people. It is called treating people the way you want to be treated.
Exactly. I tell you the truth if it wasn't for the people with knowledge on here my visits would be few and far between. Some people don't know when to give up. H09 is a 13 year old and maybe a few more on here but he is way more mature than many. Now, back to the weather.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8267
656. xcool
cmc
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting StormW:


Levi, De Javu...Almost where Alex was...wave behind near the Antilles.


Indeed....only difference I really see is this time the wave behind won't get entrained in. It will remain far enough behind to remain separate.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:
This is all too familiar....

am i high or is this disavo

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.