Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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CMC develops 3 systems.

The one making landfall around the Texas/Louisiana border is the wave that just got shaded by the NHC which is located in the western Caribbean.

The one to the east of Florida right now is located right behind the one discussed above and is currently located around the lesser Antilles.

And finally the third system viewed on the CMC is approaching the lesser Antilles. This system is currently just off the coast of Africa.

If the CMC does indeed verify, which seems unlikely, this month of July would definitely be a contender to beat the 2005 record for most named storms in the month of July.

CMC 12z 102 hours


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21108
You can tell when the Doc. goes on vacation good luck Dr. Rob.
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Quoting Patrap:
A surface low seems to be forming Se of the Swirl of 95L ..

GOM ADDS 95L Viz Loop



That would be the mid-level low which has been there all day....the system is not vertically-stacked.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26586
Quoting Tazmanian:
95L is RIP


You trying to make it angry, Taz?
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Quoting kmanislander:


Pretty funny for sure. Wait until the frist Cat 5 shows up LOL
Cayman's version of JFV. (sorry, I had to say it)
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Quoting houstongator:
I guess we picked a bad year to take a cruise in the Carribean.

July 18-25 - Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and Cozumel.

That should be interesting...
Hopefully you will be able to enjoy your cruise. Maybe in between storms. LOL BTW if you do get stuck in Grand Cayman we have very sturdy buildings and hurricane shelters.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

LMAO!! WKC gets over excited, personally I don't want a thing to with a hurricane around here, even though I enjoy tracking and watching them from a a far, I often wonder why something so beautiful can be so deadly, but that's how it is with most beautiful things! :)


Pretty funny for sure. Wait until the frist Cat 5 shows up LOL
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Quoting blsealevel:
Any opinons on 95L Patrap? looks like theirs
to much dry air for it to really do anything for the next day or so.


Dont turn ya back on 95L.

Itsa gonna take nuther 24 to get rid of some bad mojo.

Then we shall see.

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Quoting KimberlyB:


Evening Tampa. Yikes! Do you see any major changes to the current steering pattern of these possible storms within that 14 day approximation? Anybody can respond to this.


I gotta run out for a second, but yes it appear the Bermuda High might pull back to the East some opening the door for the GOM and the Eastern Seaboard.....that is very hard to say that far out yet tho....but it sure appears that may be coming.
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Quoting IKE:


Should I break out the cigars?

LMAO!! WKC gets over excited, personally I don't want a thing to with a hurricane around here, even though I enjoy tracking and watching them from a a far, I often wonder why something so beautiful can be so deadly, but that's how it is with most beautiful things! :)
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7807
743. IKE
Quoting aquak9:


no smoking near the oil spill


No Smoke on the Water?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I guess we picked a bad year to take a cruise in the Carribean.

July 18-25 - Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and Cozumel.

That should be interesting...
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A surface low seems to be forming Se of the Swirl of 95L ..

GOM ADDS 95L Viz Loop

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95L is RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
Quoting TampaSpin:
TOWER THE PATTERN IS FULL....AS THE RUNWAYS ARE COMPLETELY FULL......GEESSSSHHH!

THERE IS YOUR 3 NAMED STORMS I WAS JUST SAYING!

If it is this busy in the first week of July I hate to see what Aug-Oct will bring.
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Grilling time !. Lobster tails and filets smoked over apple wood and washed down with a fine chardonnay.

Have to build up my strength for what looks like a busy few days ahead LOL.

Back later
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Any opinons on 95L Patrap? looks like theirs
to much dry air for it to really do anything for the next day or so.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting TampaSpin:
TOWER THE PATTERN IS FULL....AS THE RUNWAYS ARE COMPLETELY FULL......GEESSSSHHH!

THERE IS YOUR 3 NAMED STORMS I WAS JUST SAYING!



Looks like were going to be busy for at least the next 2 weeks.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Quoting IKE:


Should I break out the cigars?


no smoking near the oil spill
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Quoting kmanislander:


They don't always hit the channel. In fact, it may just as easily go over the Yucatan channel or the Western end of Cuba. Possible but not cast in stone by any means.
Very true.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21108
When is the shear suppossed to let up on 95L?
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Just did a blog on 95L and the Caribbean disturbance.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
Im gonna go buy a more comfortable chair with a Neck massage and a cozy cup holder
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well IKE I like to keep my chest clean so I will just take a beer you know what give me two LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11692
TOWER THE PATTERN IS FULL....AS THE RUNWAYS ARE COMPLETELY FULL......GEESSSSHHH!

THERE IS YOUR 3 NAMED STORMS I WAS JUST SAYING!

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Quoting aspectre:
NHC 2:05pmEDT 3JUL2010 Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical wave extends from 17N47W to French Guiana at 3N53W moving at 15-20 knots.
Cyclonic curvature is observed on satellite imagery with the axis embedde within a total precipitable water moisture maximum.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are west of the wave axis from 7N-14N between 50W-60W.

Tropical wave is along 76W south of 15N moving west at 15 knots.
Broad cyclonic rotation is observed along the wave axis.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is north of Colombia from 11N-17N between 73W-77W.

So how is 11Nto17N between 73Wto77W north of Colombia? Does anybody at NHC read these things... or do they also hate being SHOUTed at?




73w-76w IS north of Colombia.
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727. IKE
96L?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
You see what happens when Dr. Masters goes on vacation....

Lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Steering would take it through the Yucatan channel.


They don't always hit the channel. In fact, it may just as easily go over the Yucatan peninsula or the Western end of Cuba. Possible but not cast in stone by any means.
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Caribbean - False Color RGB Loop
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I think if this develops it heads upthe west coast of fl. Panhandle to Tampa event, seems to be a weakness in the gulf, Louisiana everything west bound to the east everything east bound.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The graphic says that it only applies to the next 48 hrs. Whether conditions are favourable after that depends on how conditions evolve. We have seen conditions improve, worsen or stay the same with each update from time to time.


Very true. I may rarely post, but I follow all of you and have seen that myself. My response was to their question about how the discussion says that "development is favorable" and yet it was only given 10% right now. I was just trying to explain how both of those could happen. Like Tampa just said, we have a yellow circle and no Invest! lol Not yet anyway. Sometimes it's confusing for sure.
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Quoting IKE:
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


WNW movement will put it over the Yucatan from where it is.
Steering would take it through the Yucatan channel.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21108
Deleted cuz it was way out-dated.

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
717. IKE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


WNW movement will put it over the Yucatan from where it is.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Should I break out the cigars?


Perhaps a cuddly toy or two !. Getting a little graphic in here, and I am not referring to the NHC one LOL
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Quoting KimberlyB:


Correct me if I'm wrong folks, and I know you will, but doesn't that 10% only apply for the next 48 hours? If it's moving that slow, it could mean that its favorable for development after that time frame.


The graphic says that it only applies to the next 48 hrs. Whether conditions are favourable after that depends on how conditions evolve. We have seen conditions improve, worsen or stay the same with each update from time to time.
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Quoting IKE:


Should I break out the cigars?


Do you have some that read "Congratulations! It's a Storm!"? Or "Invest" as the case may be? lol
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
96L coming very soon. NHC hasn't given an invest status out to every yellow, just the 10% systems so far. The very few 0% systems didn't get invest, but this is a 10% system anyway so lets see if they keep the pattern up.


Didn't really know what the current yellow thing ment when related to an Invest.....Thanks! One would think that anytime a yellow is put up that an Invest would also occur also.....that is what i would do anyways......but i am dummy tho....LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:
We just might have 3 named storms between by this time and the next 14 days! I actually see that happening.


Evening Tampa. Yikes! Do you see any major changes to the current steering pattern of these possible storms within that 14 day approximation? Anybody can respond to this.
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NOAA ADDS GOM Viz Loop
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710. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm 96L is near here come on moma push push that newborn is nearly here she going to tag it 96L but she says if it is a she it would be named Bonnie if that other mother decides to name 95L Bonnie and the baby 96L is male then Colin will be the name LOL anyway enough jokes I think PRE-96L will move slowly to the NNW oh yea they have it on the TWO

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.




Should I break out the cigars?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting AlexEmmett:

ok i was jk but what the heck is with the nhc an contradictions the give it a 10% but say conditions ar favible


Correct me if I'm wrong folks, and I know you will, but doesn't that 10% only apply for the next 48 hours? If it's moving that slow, it could mean that its favorable for development after that time frame.
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GOES-12 Atlantic WV False Color Image
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Be sure to check the FRONTS box

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
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Quoting belizeit:
I belive this new area could probably be a depression by monday already 1 Vortics is very Strong already
2 Very low wind shear
3 Lots of heat building up already 4 No other storms or waves nearby 5 it has enough latitude to take advantage of earths spin

I thought about you as TS Alex creamed your area with several inches of heavy rain last week. At least there are no more 100F days, but your heat index probably pegs 100-105F with your 87F days with 70% humidity.

Hopefully the tropical wave just brings you your normal monsoon rains, and nothing too severe.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
You are forgiven!!!!!!On a serious note:I see we have another area to watch.Boy this year is really getting busy.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.