Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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804. Drakoen
12:40 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Area of concentrated convection in the central Caribbean is interesting, but a SHIP report revealed nothing impressive surface pressure-wise at the moment with pressures around 1013mb. A NOAA buoy 42057 in the central Caribbean is reporting a pressure of near 1011mb.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
803. Levi32
12:40 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Updated steering layers forecast maps from PSU e-WALL indicate the Caribbean disturbance should go through the uprights.


Sure hope not...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
802. homelesswanderer
12:39 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Scary....BOC is still possible but the models showing that were also showing low development farther south than where the current vort max is setting up. This has more potential to be something Texas should worry about.,


SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
801. Levi32
12:39 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it drop 2 mb's. Hope for 95L?


That's mainly due to large-scale pressure falls in the Gulf of Mexico, and if the buildup of heat continues this way to its south, then I'm going to say no.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey hell no I am not excited about this at all and I AM NOT THE CAYMAN VERSION OF JFV AND DON'T YOU DARE SAY IT I SHOULD FLAG YOU BUT I WOULD JUST LOOK LIKE AN IDOT AND DON'T YOU DARE SAT I AM AS WELL IF YOU DO IT WILL

Hey WKC. I surely met no ill will , we all here are weather enthusiatist or we wouldn't be here , would we? I met you're just getting excited at how active the season could really be, I know you don't want no hurricanes here and I'm sure stormwatcherCI meant no harm even though I know the mention of JFV whoever he is or being compared to him be offensive, personally I never quite understood why he rubbed so many the wrong way.Just sit back , relax and enjoy the ride bro.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7833
I am not getting say you say get so excited
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Quoting StormW:
Updated steering layers forecast maps from PSU e-WALL indicate the Caribbean disturbance should go through the uprights.
oh man, that is never good when your refering to cuba and the yucatan pennisula
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Quoting IKE:


Not good.

"The kick is good."



not good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
781. Storm..apologies for my ignorance. Through the uprights...meaning?
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it drop 2 mb's. Hope for 95L?


Pressure around it also dropped 2mb, so in a relative way not much change.

AL 95 2010070318 BEST 0 276N 876W 25 1013 LO 0 0 0 0 0 1015
AL 95 2010070400 BEST 0 276N 884W 25 1011 LO 34 NEQ 0 0 0 0 1013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Updated steering layers forecast maps from PSU e-WALL indicate the Caribbean disturbance should go through the uprights.
It would actually take it more towards the western tip of Cuba in the short-term.

48 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting StormW:
Updated steering layers forecast maps from PSU e-WALL indicate the Caribbean disturbance should go through the uprights.
Storm what is the uprights?Sorry im not familiar with the terms and their meanings. Trying to learn.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
I hope we don't end up with a waltz in GOM.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
790. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Updated steering layers forecast maps from PSU e-WALL indicate the Caribbean disturbance should go through the uprights.


Not good.

"The kick is good."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Patrap:
Looking at that New Surface Low forming ..itsa in perfect SST's

95L ADDS Viz Loop
Pat, is what your talking about almost due South of Mobile in that blow-up of convection?
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)







Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, stop being superstitious.

Anyway, I'm very concerned about the Caribbean system.



me too


here comes $8.00 gas and the pizza Oil
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Yep, stormwatcherCI, noticed my mistake immediately after I posted. Then noticed how out-dated the discussion was.
Gettin' really good at noticing things after I post, today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this is going to be a bad bad year. I can just feel it in my bones. One after another yikes..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting HurricaneObserver:

Why would you want to make it angry?


Oh, stop being superstitious.

Anyway, I'm very concerned about the Caribbean system.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20402
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think i no that


then why would you ask??
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780. xcool
not yet on 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting kmanislander:
Grilling time !. Lobster tails and filets smoked over apple wood and washed down with a fine chardonnay.

Have to build up my strength for what looks like a busy few days ahead LOL.

Back later


very nice
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Looking at that New Surface Low forming ..itsa in perfect SST's

95L ADDS Viz Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Pat, Ike, storm, MH09, and all others. Been a hot humid day over here in Mobile.
Evening.

Quoting IKE:


Looks like it drop 2 mb's. Hope for 95L?
Not really.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


there is no 96L, yet



i think i no that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it drop 2 mb's. Hope for 95L?



may be thats why am RIPING it



95L is RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Link

Well they said it was going to be a VERY active
year guess that's why their the Pro's.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting Tazmanian:




any thing for 96L???


there is no 96L, yet
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey hell no I am not excited about this at all and I AM NOT THE CAYMAN VERSION OF JFV AND DON'T YOU DARE SAY IT I SHOULD FLAG YOU BUT I WOULD JUST LOOK LIKE AN IDOT AND DON'T YOU DARE SAT I AM AS WELL IF YOU DO IT WILL
Relax. It was just a joke. Take off your caps lock and don't get so excited.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8327
Looks like the kid ate his Wheaties!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting xcool:
AL, 95, 2010070400, , BEST, 0, 276N, 884W, 25, 1011, LO




any thing for 96L???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
769. IKE
Quoting xcool:
AL, 95, 2010070400, , BEST, 0, 276N, 884W, 25, 1011, LO


Looks like it drop 2 mb's. Hope for 95L?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey hell no I am not excited about this at all and I AM NOT THE CAYMAN VERSION OF JFV AND DON'T YOU DARE SAY IT I SHOULD FLAG YOU BUT I WOULD JUST LOOK LIKE AN IDOT AND DON'T YOU DARE SAT I AM AS WELL IF YOU DO IT WILL


yeah that caps arent helping your cause... trying to look big on the blog niceeeeee
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Quoting HurricaneObserver:

Why would you want to make it angry?



so it can be come a name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Good evening Pat, Ike, storm, MH09, and all others. Been a hot humid day over here in Mobile.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes

Why would you want to make it angry?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
CMC develops 3 systems.

The one making landfall around the Texas/Louisiana border is the wave that just got shaded by the NHC which is located in the western Caribbean.

The one to the east of Florida right now is located right behind the one discussed above and is currently located around the lesser Antilles.

And finally the third system viewed on the CMC is approaching the lesser Antilles. This system is currently just off the coast of Africa.

If the CMC does indeed verify, which seems unlikely, this month of July would definitely be a contender to beat the 2005 record for most named storms in the month of July.

CMC 12z 102 hours




Yeah, and looking at the later frames the East coast one and the one near South America become pretty intense. South America would definitely get TS force winds if that verified.. But then again this is the CMC...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey hell no I am not excited about this at all and I AM NOT THE CAYMAN VERSION OF JFV AND DON'T YOU DARE SAY IT I SHOULD FLAG YOU BUT I WOULD JUST LOOK LIKE AN IDOT AND DON'T YOU DARE SAT I AM AS WELL IF YOU DO IT WILL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
are little 96L is looking better and better amd going too RIP it some and get it going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
761. xcool
AL, 95, 2010070400, , BEST, 0, 276N, 884W, 25, 1011, LO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
760. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CoffinWood:


You trying to make it angry, Taz?



yes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting kmanislander:
Grilling time !. Lobster tails and filets smoked over apple wood and washed down with a fine chardonnay.

Have to build up my strength for what looks like a busy few days ahead LOL.

Back later

WOW! Sure know how to make a mouth water as they would say, My wife and I were just across the street from you watching some guys kite surf in the strong south winds, I was having a few Coors light and enjoying seabreeze, Enjoy Kman.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7833
95L almost looks like an ULL with an L just a few degrees SE of it or is that the Center I'm
looking at?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting kmanislander:
Grilling time !. Lobster tails and filets smoked over apple wood and washed down with a fine chardonnay.

Have to build up my strength for what looks like a busy few days ahead LOL.

Back later
Oh man I'm heading over there for about the 3rd time in the past month, lol. Enjoy your meal Kman.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122

.."Lets go Honey,..before the New Blog Entry get's posted"...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
CMC develops 3 systems.

The one making landfall around the Texas/Louisiana border is the wave that just got shaded by the NHC which is located in the western Caribbean.

The one to the east of Florida right now is located right behind the one discussed above and is currently located around the lesser Antilles.

And finally the third system viewed on the CMC is approaching the lesser Antilles. This system is currently just off the coast of Africa.

If the CMC does indeed verify, which seems unlikely, this month of July would definitely be a contender to beat the 2005 record for most named storms in the month of July.

CMC 12z 102 hours


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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