Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Satellite loops also reveal no appreciable shear impending on the system from what I can tell. Clouds are expanding outwards nearly evenly in every direction.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
I predict Hurricane Janiel Francisco Vargas to be at full strength in less than 24 hours.

My synopsis


ROFL
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
Quoting Drakoen:
The area of concentrated convection is also west of the the wave axis. That is consistent with the cimss shear product revealing anywhere from 10-30 knots of shear over the disturbance east of an upper level high.


Shear from the west would push the convection east of the trough axis, not west.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting IKE:
Western Caribbean blob.....my thoughts....

(1)Designated 96L by 8 am CDST Sunday...WU bloggers break out Jewel Sweet cigars with the birth of a new invest.
(2)BAMS suite shows a WNW track into northern Mexico or southern Texas.
(3)SHIPS model shows it as a 100 kt. system on it's initial run.
(4)Florida casters think it will get pulled north and then NNE by a passing trough.
(5)Numerous fights/bans on Dr. Masters blog.
(6)Numerous bloggers post every models track with frame by frame discussions, even at 3 in the morning.

Yes, that sounds about right :-)
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we may have 96L at any time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!


Night Storm!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
The area of concentrated convection is also east of the the wave axis. That is consistent with the cimss shear product revealing anywhere from 10-30 knots of shear over the disturbance east of an upper level high.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Exactly my point. GFS seems to want to bring this anticyclone into the Gulf, as well.
Indeed. At 42 hours the anticyclone is over the northern tip of the Yucatan.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
833....BRAVO!!!
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!

Good Night StormW, I suspect you'll be a busy man over the next few days, if not weeks or even months :) Sleep well!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8121
Aquak9 just had to inject this before leaving isn't there a Hebert box somewhere around there. Pleasant dreams everyone.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
The Caribbean system is developing rather quickly over 29C+ SSTs.
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Quoting StormW:


I know that! Ya never tell a lady's real age! Supposed to compliment them!!


:D
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
95L does not have a 2nd surface low forming. The mid-level low is east of the surface low and it has been that way all day. Look at satellite imagery carefully and you will see that it is not the low-level clouds that are turning east of 95L's current center. It is the mid-level clouds.

To prove it....look at CIMSS vorticity. 850mb vort max is west of the 500mb one.

850:



500:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Good night dear.Get u some good sleep because the looks of the forecasts u r gonna need it.Have a blessed night Storm.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
till the morning SW
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Quoting StormW:


I know that! Ya never tell a lady's real age! Supposed to compliment them!!
LOL, ya got me there Storm!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good Night All,

I was looking at the CMC model run (120 hr)and the system near Trinidad and Tobago caught my eye. I also noticed some skepticism from bloggers on the CMC simulation. Is CMC reliable? Thanks for the edification.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It seems to be moving along with an anticyclone aloft.



Exactly my point. GFS seems to want to bring this anticyclone into the Gulf, as well.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
833. IKE
Western Caribbean blob.....my thoughts....

(1)Designated 96L by 8 am CDST Sunday...WU bloggers break out Jewel Sweet cigars with the birth of a new invest.
(2)BAMS suite shows a WNW track into northern Mexico or southern Texas.
(3)SHIPS model shows it as a 100 kt. system on it's initial run.
(4)Florida casters think it will get pulled north and then NNE by a passing trough.
(5)Numerous fights/bans on Dr. Masters blog.
(6)Numerous bloggers post every models track with frame by frame discussions, even at 3 in the morning.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting StormW:


The Yucatan Channel
and the infamous island of youth
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Thanks Pat, that's what I thought I saw.
And good evening StormW....Quit sucking up to granny, by the way....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!
Night Storm!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I wish Storm.I will be the BIG 44 COme August 5th.I am proud of my age.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Pat, Ike, storm, MH09, and all others. Been a hot humid day over here in Mobile.
I sure "Agree" with that msgambler it was very "Hot" today....

Taco :o)
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825. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


Well, that makes you only what...35?
44 Storm, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Txwxchaser:
781. Storm..apologies for my ignorance. Through the uprights...meaning?


also known as threading the needle
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That's ok, your only as old as you feel. I have my walker and cane right next to me, just in case.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
The ITCZ axis is analyzed from the west Africa coast of Guinea
near
11n15w...westward along 10n20w
7n30w 5n40w 7n50w 8n60w.
Aside areas of convection related to tropical waves...scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection is within 120 nm on either
side of the axis E of 35w.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, the upper-level wind pattern appears very favorable for development. That's why I'm saying that.
It seems to be moving along with an anticyclone aloft.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
RGB shows it well ms..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
i guess by monday a hault will be put on the oil collection in the gulf.... not good!!!
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The 1013mb ship report looks like an anomaly within the surrounding pressure field and could be a faulty barometer....very common with ship obs, and thus they are not always trustworthy. Pressures near the western Caribbean disturbance look to be around 1011mb.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Oh my,I guess I did didnt I?LOL!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting mrsalagranny:
The last time Mobile got a direct hit from a cane I beleive it was Fredrick,1979.I was 13 at the time and it was one heck of a storm.
You giving away your age granny....LOL Good Evening.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting beell:
They really should go ahead and pull the trigger on Invest status for the western Caribbean wave. I don't think its going away anytime soon.

NHC says WNW @ 15mph. Puts it near the GOM in 48 hrs. CMC track looks pretty good this evening.
I doubt it actually is moving at that speed after looking at satellite imagery. I'm also in agreement with the NOGAPS in terms of track, the CMC too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Now when you say that I get nervous.


Well, the upper-level wind pattern appears very favorable for development. That's why I'm saying that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
The last time Mobile got a direct hit from a cane I beleive it was Fredrick,1979.I was 13 at the time and it was one heck of a storm.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting aspectre:
Yep, stormwatcherCI, noticed my mistake immediately after I posted. Then noticed how out-dated the discussion was.
Gettin' really good at noticing things after I post, today.
LOL. Happens to the best of us. I try to read back before I post just to make sure I don't twist letters around and sound like "someone" else. Teh Caribbean blob is looking good.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
809. beell
They really should go ahead and pull the trigger on Invest status for the western Caribbean wave. I don't think its going away anytime soon.

NHC says WNW @ 15mph. Puts it near the GOM in 48 hrs. CMC track looks pretty good this evening.
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Oh my, not good at all.I hope a high will form over us all and protect us.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, stop being superstitious.

Anyway, I'm very concerned about the Caribbean system.
Now when you say that I get nervous.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting homelesswanderer:


SmileyCentral.com
:(
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
805. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Pressure around it also dropped 2mb, so in a relative way not much change.

AL 95 2010070318 BEST 0 276N 876W 25 1013 LO 0 0 0 0 0 1015
AL 95 2010070400 BEST 0 276N 884W 25 1011 LO 34 NEQ 0 0 0 0 1013


Thanks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Area of concentrated convection in the central Caribbean is interesting, but a SHIP report revealed nothing impressive surface pressure-wise at the moment with pressures around 1013mb. A NOAA buoy 42057 in the central Caribbean is reporting a pressure of near 1011mb.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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