Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Hi Everybody,


Something ate the goldfish buried in the avacado pot last night. The new guy is acclimating to the tank and getting along with Maxine very well.

Off to make a mandarin orange cake for my mother's birthday (the fourth of july!!!)...Glad to see nothing horrible in the GOM yet. Something's brewing in the Caribbean, but still keeping an eye on the wave east of the Windwards.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
that pressure is not at 1011 mb that is at 1010.8mb

I was just rounding up :o)!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting KoritheMan:


Mid-level shear from CIMSS also depicts westerly shear:



Doesn't seem accurate with the model initializations showing SSE winds at the mid-levels. Even if it is accurate, a cloud shot with 81W (the location of wave axis according to NHC) highlighted shows that the west and east cloud shield extents of the system don't differ that much....loops show clouds expanding outward nearly evenly in every direction. Most of the "shear" on CIMSS maps is probably outflow. Their representations of the center of upper anticyclones isn't always perfect either.

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OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS LOOK FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E
WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS.

Looks like a soggy weekend for me... am hearing some thunder as I type.


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that pressure is not at 1011 mb that is at 1010.8mb
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
16.8N/80.7W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
855 AstroHurricane001 "I wonder, do all storms that track past the Isle of Youth that have a name get retired? Gustav sure did in 2008."

And so did Ike and Paloma.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Yes Mam I would too.maybe it will just dissapate and u want have to worry.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Boy as if they dont have enough to worry about.Im sorry I dont know anything about the weather and the graphs you put up.I am really very interested in weather.Maybe if i would shut up and listen I might would learn something.LOL!!!!!!!!!


I'm with you, but i'm having a hard time keeping all of them straight today. I think I'm going to leave a bag packed by the back door like I did when I was expecting a baby!
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Quoting IKE:
Caribbean blob is further north and east then where Alex started. Seems to indicate a path further north and east. Not sure that high pressure isn't suppose to build in over the SE USA this coming week. Maybe a western GOM problem again.


Yeah, it well could be, though this time, I think the chances are roughly equal for the western and northern Gulf Coast.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting Levi32:


Huh...surface map 18z has it as a trough, which is what that discussion is based off of. Either way, the tropical wave(s) did not spawn this disturbance. They are only adding to the situation, and the low-level vort max is what we should be focusing on as it would be the focal-point for surface low development, and that max has been becoming more defined all day.


Call it whatever you please, but this disturbance is associated with a tropical wave near 81W at 18z that is clearly being sheared. NHC has noted it as a tropical wave.
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893. IKE
Caribbean blob is further north and east then where Alex started. Seems to indicate a path further north and east. Not sure that high pressure isn't suppose to build in over the SE USA this coming week. Maybe a western GOM problem again.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
892. beell
Quoting Levi32:


I'm not pointing anywhere yet lol....I pointed at Mexico this morning but I'm mentioning the possibility of a track farther north if the low doesn't develop as far south as the models had it this morning.


No worries, Levi. Early in the game. I think we agree on potential.
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Cloud tops warming a bit.

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Quoting Levi32:


Obviously it would, but look at those 2 images....I don't see displacement east....I see displacement west, if there is any at all. Also using the tropical wave axis as a reference point is illogical since the tropical wave did not spawn this disturbance. The tropical wave is just now entering the situation.

18z surface map would also show convection displaced west of the tropical wave if anything.



Mid-level shear from CIMSS also depicts westerly shear:

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
I'd like wish all US citizens a Happy 4th Of July, coincendently we have a holiday here on Monday July 5 also ( Constitution Day,Cayman Islands) Keep safe all!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting Drakoen:


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



Huh...surface map 18z has it as a trough, which is what that discussion is based off of. Either way, the tropical wave(s) did not spawn this disturbance. They are only adding to the situation, and the low-level vort max is what we should be focusing on as it would be the focal-point for surface low development, and that max has been becoming more defined all day.
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New Tropical Update w/ Video
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that cant be good

No it is not a good thing, a 1011 MB pressure in an area of boiling convection, over 85F SST, with very low shear is never ever a good thing.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Link

T=24 h
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting KoritheMan:


Westerly shear would tend to displace any convection to the east of the wave axis. I think that's Drak's entire point.


Obviously it would, but look at those 2 images....I don't see displacement east....I see displacement west, if there is any at all. Also using the tropical wave axis as a reference point is illogical since the tropical wave did not spawn this disturbance. The tropical wave is just now entering the situation.

18z surface map would also show convection displaced west of the tropical wave if anything, even extrapolated to 0z.

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Quoting Levi32:


Not sure where you're getting thunderstorms east of the axis....if anything they're west of. Compare the location of the 850mb vort max to the cloud shot with the same lat/lon grid:





TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Boy as if they dont have enough to worry about.Im sorry I dont know anything about the weather and the graphs you put up.I am really very interested in weather.Maybe if i would shut up and listen I might would learn something.LOL!!!!!!!!!

No not really.... If you ask questions you will learn

Taco :o)
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881. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I thought you didn't know how to use that one since it doesn't have grid-scale feedback :)


lol, nrt! I figure as long as it traces back to a convection producing set-up...it's usable. Will be interesting to see if the parallel is worthy of some trust.

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Quoting beell:


Well, we don't have to believe it. Quit trying to point it at TX, lol!


I'm not pointing anywhere yet lol....I pointed at Mexico this morning but I'm mentioning the possibility of a track farther north if the low doesn't develop as far south as the models had it this morning.
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Quoting blsealevel:
Link

Not looking very good for us
The same link showed major hurricane going to central tx,yesterday.Wait and see what tomorrow brings?
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Link

T=24 h
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting Levi32:


Not sure where you're getting thunderstorms east of the axis....if anything they're west of. Compare the location of the 850mb vort max to the cloud shot with the same lat/lon grid:





Westerly shear would tend to displace any convection to the east of the wave axis. I think that's Drak's entire point.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Mid-level flow is SSE to SE:

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
16.834 N 81.501 W

Conditions at 42057 as of
(7:50 pm EDT)
2350 GMT on 07/03/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.4 °F






that cant be good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Drakoen:
System is being sheared as the convection is east of and not co-located with the wave axis. While the 200mb flow is convincing of an upper level ridge flow aloft, the mid level flow is coming out of the west, an unfavorable direction and speed.


Not sure where you're getting thunderstorms east of the axis....if anything they're west of. Compare the location of the 850mb vort max to the cloud shot with the same lat/lon grid:



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Boy as if they dont have enough to worry about.Im sorry I dont know anything about the weather and the graphs you put up.I am really very interested in weather.Maybe if i would shut up and listen I might would learn something.LOL!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
16.834 N 81.501 W

Conditions at 42057 as of
(7:50 pm EDT)
2350 GMT on 07/03/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.4 °F



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
871. beell
Quoting Levi32:


The same model sticks it in the BOC though.

120 hours GFS 18z paralell:



Well, we don't have to believe it. Quit trying to point it at TX, lol!
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System is being sheared as the convection is east of and not co-located with the wave axis. While the 200mb flow is convincing of an upper level ridge flow aloft, the mid level flow is coming out of the west, an unfavorable direction and speed.
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869. xcool
DirtlegPartDeux lol
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
hey Levi if this does get in the GOM and is developed.What would the possible track be?Oris it really too early to tell?


Bit early since we don't have a developed system, but most likely targets would be Texas and northern Mexico. Texas will have to worry more if the surface low really does develop this far north, and if it makes it to 20N before reaching the Yucatan, they will have to look out.
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Link

Not looking very good for us
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting StormW:


Well, that makes you only what...35?



you missed it by 10
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Quoting KoritheMan:


ROFL


LOL
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
wow 96L is get it act togeter fast
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
863. JRRP
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Quoting beell:
Embedded in 20 knots of flow from the SE until it makes the Gulf (if it develops) Check the 700mb ridge periphery. Mostly N.

700mb GFS 18Z Parallel @ 48 hrs.


Link


The same model sticks it in the BOC though.

120 hours GFS 18z parallel:

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hey Levi if this does get in the GOM and is developed.What would the possible track be?Oris it really too early to tell?
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
Quoting beell:
Embedded in 20 knots of flow from the SE until it makes the Gulf (if it develops) Check the 700mb ridge periphery. Mostly N.

700mb GFS 18Z Parallel @ 48 hrs.


Link


I thought you didn't know how to use that one since it doesn't have grid-scale feedback :)
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Quoting IKE:
Western Caribbean blob.....my thoughts....

(1)Designated 96L by 8 am CDST Sunday...WU bloggers break out Jewel Sweet cigars with the birth of a new invest.
(2)BAMS suite shows a WNW track into northern Mexico or southern Texas.
(3)SHIPS model shows it as a 100 kt. system on it's initial run.
(4)Florida casters think it will get pulled north and then NNE by a passing trough.
(5)Numerous fights/bans on Dr. Masters blog.
(6)Numerous bloggers post every models track with frame by frame discussions, even at 3 in the morning.

LMBO
Ike that is 100% true....

Taco :o)
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Quoting ReservoirSimGuy:
Good Night All,

I was looking at the CMC model run (120 hr)and the system near Trinidad and Tobago caught my eye. I also noticed some skepticism from bloggers on the CMC simulation. Is CMC reliable? Thanks for the edification.


CMC is fairly reliable for long-term storm tracks. Not so much for storm intensity.
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Quoting Levi32:


Shear from the west would push the convection east of the trough axis, not west.



Mistake in my post.
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856. beell
Embedded in 20 knots of flow from the SE until it makes the Gulf (if it develops) Check the 700mb ridge periphery. Mostly N.

700mb GFS 18Z Parallel @ 48 hrs.


Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and the infamous island of youth


I wonder, do all storms that track past the Isle of Youth that have a name get retired? Gustav sure did in 2008.
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Satellite loops also reveal no appreciable shear impending on the system from what I can tell. Clouds are expanding outwards nearly evenly in every direction.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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