Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AlexEmmett:

explane becuase sheared systems dont just have 2 mb pressure drops
It was a large-scale pressure fall across the entire Gulf of Mexico rather than just the actual system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting xcool:
HMMM

Ghandi of the Blog has spoken lol
952. xcool
HMMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Quoting blsealevel:
Link

Wind shear doing a number on 95L tonight.
Think we should not be suprised at what we see sunday afternoon will we still be talking about a wave in the carb. or will we be talking about an invest may be TD.
on things for sure folks still have time to prepare if not already done so.

explane becuase sheared systems dont just have 2 mb pressure drops

look at the CMC run
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah the big burst died down during DMIN but it also came up during DMIN lol

[Cristaphor walkin voice] thats just wierd
Quoting Patrap:
Los dry wedge amigos..



Pat, this looks like it is having a hard time coming together
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

yah it did for that big burst but 93L was the same way until Explosion


Yeah the big burst died down during DMIN but it also came up during DMIN lol
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Link

Wind shear doing a number on 95L tonight.
Think we should not be suprised at what we see sunday afternoon will we still be talking about a wave in the carb. or will we be talking about an invest may be TD.
on things for sure folks still have time to prepare if not already done so.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah. Often in developing systems these waxes and wanes are more pronounced and are called diurnal maximum and diurnal minimum. Although I'm not sure if DMAX had much of an effect on this, maybe the convection is enhanced or something.

yah it did for that big burst but 93L was the same way until Explosion
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Even in a well defined hurricane, they usually can't maintain a strong convection for more tha a few hours, they usually collapse and build new eyewalls, tropical systems wax and wane, it by no means, means that it is weaker or dying out, just a pattern , like what we call circadian rhythms, tropical systems have them too, this is my best explanation maybe someone could explain it better.


Yeah. Often in developing systems these waxes and wanes are more pronounced and are called diurnal maximum and diurnal minimum. Although I'm not sure if DMAX had much of an effect on this, maybe the convection is enhanced or something.

EDIT: My post made it sound like DMIN and DMAX are the only waxes and wanes.. there are several small waxes and wanes going on inside of them, but in general convection dies down in DMIN and goes up in DMAX
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Los dry wedge amigos..



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500mb vort max is still displaced slightly to the southeast of the 850mb max:

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Quoting Bordonaro:

Some cloud tops have warmed slightly, in the western portion of the tropical wave. However, cloud tops on the eastern side of the tropical wave are slowly cooling.
Exactly what I was trying to point out.
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850mb vort max has moved WNW and intensified more during the past 3 hours and is now near 80W, right under the deepest convection.

0z:

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cooling would signify higher cloud tops, or stronger thunderstorms. Warming would obviously signify the opposite, lower cloud tops or weaker thunderstorms. After looking a satellite loops there has been some slight cooling in the past few frames but nothing major.

Some cloud tops have warmed slightly, in the western portion of the tropical wave. However, cloud tops on the eastern side of the tropical wave are slowly cooling.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, but does that mean intensifying or dying out ? I really don't know so please explain. Thanks.

Even in a well defined hurricane, they usually can't maintain a strong convection for more tha a few hours, they usually collapse and build new eyewalls, tropical systems wax and wane, it by no means, means that it is weaker or dying out, just a pattern , like what we call circadian rhythms, tropical systems have them too, this is my best explanation maybe someone could explain it better.
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934. xcool
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Quoting Levi32:


Colder means more intense. Warmer means less intense. The brighter, more intense colors on enhanced satellite always indicate colder cloud tops. So when someone says cloud tops are warming, they mean weakening. When they say cloud tops are cooling, they mean intensifying.
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Quoting blsealevel:
Link
Area at 54N 14w isnt looking to shaby tonight eather.

Ya a few models are developing it and bringing it towards the Mid-Atlantic region, but it looks like it'll have to fight off shear for a few days
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, but does that mean intensifying or dying out ? I really don't know so please explain. Thanks.


Colder means more intense. Warmer means less intense. The brighter, more intense colors on enhanced satellite always indicate colder cloud tops. So when someone says cloud tops are warming, they mean weakening. When they say cloud tops are cooling, they mean intensifying.
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Quoting Levi32:


I believe he meant warming. Higher (more intense) cloud tops in strong thunderstorms are colder because they are higher up in the atmosphere. As thunderstorms collapse, their cloud tops warm because the clouds are sinking to a lower level and the thunderstorms are less intense. The more intense colors on a satellite enhancement always indicate colder cloud tops.
Yes I understand that, but in the last few frames I've seen some minor cooling in cloud tops, obviously nothing major but something to point out.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Not dying out.. just a weakening phase.
Thanks everyone.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, but does that mean intensifying or dying out ? I really don't know so please explain. Thanks.


Not dying out.. just a weakening phase.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
44You say cooling and Levi says warming. Which one and what does it signify ?
Cooling would signify higher cloud tops, or stronger thunderstorms. Warming would obviously signify the opposite, lower cloud tops or weaker thunderstorms. After looking a satellite loops there has been some slight cooling in the past few frames but nothing major.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cloud tops associated with this AOI are slowly cooling. Click the image for the animation.



You say cooling and Levi says warming. Which one and what does it signify ?

agreed but its d-min
Quoting Levi32:


I believe he meant warming. Higher (more intense) cloud tops in strong thunderstorms are colder because they are higher up in the atmosphere. As thunderstorms collapse, their cloud tops warm because the clouds are sinking to a lower level and the thunderstorms are less intense. The more intense colors on a satellite enhancement always indicate colder cloud tops.
Ok, but does that mean intensifying or dying out ? I really don't know so please explain. Thanks.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
44You say cooling and Levi says warming. Which one and what does it signify ?


I believe he meant warming. Higher (more intense) cloud tops in strong thunderstorms are colder because they are higher up in the atmosphere. As thunderstorms collapse, their cloud tops warm because the clouds are sinking to a lower level and the thunderstorms are less intense. The more intense colors on a satellite enhancement always indicate colder cloud tops.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
923. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If it gets implemented (see no reasons not so far) will be interesting to see the affect on the BAMs, SHIPS, etc.


Good point!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cloud tops associated with this AOI are slowly cooling. Click the image for the animation.


You say cooling and Levi says warming. Which one and what does it signify ?
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Link
Area at 54N 14w isnt looking to shaby tonight eather.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We should be receiving a complete look as per ASCAT at the current vort max of the Caribbean disturbance. I'm eager to see if we do have an area of low pressure or not.

Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)


I don't think we do, but there may be a definable surface trough in the area with perhaps a modest wind shift.
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Quoting beell:


lol, nrt! I figure as long as it traces back to a convection producing set-up...it's usable. Will be interesting to see if the parallel is worthy of some trust.



If it gets implemented (see no reasons not so far) will be interesting to see the affect on the BAMs, SHIPS, etc.
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We should be receiving a complete look as per ASCAT at the current vort max of the Caribbean disturbance. I'm eager to see if we do have an area of low pressure or not.

Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Have a good evening everyone.Off to play with my Grand*daughter who is staying with me tonight.Please say a prayer for me.She is a handfull..LOL!!!!!!


Have a Good Evening will chat tomorrow...
Taking my grandson to watch Fireworks at
Baybear's tonight....



Taco :o)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cloud tops associated with this AOI are slowly cooling. Click the image for the animation.



WOW!! MH09 Looks like we're in for some squally weather
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This disturbance was an area of building heat over the last couple days aided by cold air aloft associated with a TUTT cell. This upper low dove southwest and dissipated yesterday, leaving the area well-ventilated. The low surface pressures over hot water is the simple reason why thunderstorms have been going off. Also the monsoon trough is tending to lift north into that area instead of staying down over Panama. The "tropical wave" at 81W analyzed by the NHC is a surface trough on their own map and has been a surface trough forever, and has only moved half a degree longitude westward in 24 hours, not typical behavior of a tropical wave. The only tropical wave here is along 78W, which is just now entering the scene and was not the cause of the convective blowup the last couple days in the western Caribbean. All it is doing is adding its own heat to the fire now.

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INV/95/L
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913. xcool
huh shear ????????? soon 96L
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Cloud tops associated with this AOI are slowly cooling. Click the image for the animation.


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Yes, 757...you, me and the NHC. ;)

They've included it in every Discussion since before it left the coast of Africa.
8 PM:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 9N38W ALONG 5N41W TO 2N42W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.

So you know they're watching it.
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Here's a different way to look at the shear. Looking at what Levi is posting this may be the more accurate graphic: EDIT: At least in this situation

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Have a good evening everyone.Off to play with my Grand*daughter who is staying with me tonight.Please say a prayer for me.She is a handfull..LOL!!!!!!
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Anybody seeing a potential for development from that area east of the islands

Some models want to take it towards the Mid-Atlantic coast
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Quoting Levi32:


Doesn't seem accurate with the model initializations showing SSE winds at the mid-levels. Even if it is accurate, a cloud shot with 81W (the location of wave axis according to NHC) highlighted shows that the west and east cloud shield extents of the system don't differ that much....loops show clouds expanding outward nearly evenly in every direction. Most of the "shear" on CIMSS maps is probably outflow. Their representations of the center of upper anticyclones isn't always perfect either.



Well, no graph is ever perfect, so you could be right.
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Also, the deepest convection will naturally fire just east of the wave axis due to convergence on that side, with or without shear.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
Hi Everybody,


Something ate the goldfish buried in the avacado pot last night. The new guy is acclimating to the tank and getting along with Maxine very well.

Off to make a mandarin orange cake for my mother's birthday (the fourth of july!!!)...Glad to see nothing horrible in the GOM yet. Something's brewing in the Caribbean, but still keeping an eye on the wave east of the Windwards.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.