Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Question for ANYONE that can help. I was here earlier today and was scrolling down the page and something weird happened. For a brief bit, I was able, with the scroll wheel on my mouse, soom in and out on the whole page? Unfortunately it stopped doing that when it was completely zoomed out and everything on this page is so small you can barely read it, weirdest thing I ever seen.

I shut down and same thing and only with Wundergruond. Just wondering if anyone has had this problem or if I need to contact Admin.
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1003. beell
NCEP Fronts Valid 07/04 00Z

Photobucket
Link

Happy Birthday, America!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh. It's fixed now.


Tough to compare different graphical layouts
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16272
1000. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Those are both 850 mb. I think he means 925 versus 850

Yes.
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Quoting help4u:
Big decrease in TCHP will this mean alot less proability of storms developing?

Not really. Summer just started the TCHP increases and decreases, depending on the trade winds, cloud cover and the location & strength of the Azores-Bermuda High. Believe me, there is already plenty of heat energy and the TCHP will slowly increase throughout the summer, maxing out in early September.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, but having 925mb decrease and 850mb increase at the same time is a little odd.


The only explanation I can think of is that the lower to mid levels are getting organized while the surface is still struggling.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16272
Quoting kmanislander:


Those are both 850 mb. I think he means 925 versus 850
Oh. It's fixed now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
21:00 UTC


00:00 UTC


Those are both 850 mb. I think he means 925 versus 850
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16272
gambler, it was a nice quiet afternoon, here on Doc's blog. But THEN, StormW had to say he was DISTURBED.

Disturbed, I say. Then all hell breaks loose- ok, it was a minor hell cause most of the trolls got banned last night- and then next thing ya know, we got two- Count'm, TWO- yellow circles out there.

other than that...it's been a fine day.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Perhaps. 925 mb is closer to the surface. Usually we see vort developing in the mid to lower levels first then transitioning down to the surface.

It stands to reason that what we see at the 850 mb level would look better than 925 mb.


Yes, but having 925mb decrease and 850mb increase at the same time is a little odd. Normally a change in one of those levels will reflect at least a similar change in the same way in the other.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
Quoting Bordonaro:

The pattern will most likely change in the next few days. The ITCZ is playing "see-saw", slithering northward & southward across the tropical Atlantic.

Thanks for your rain, it was awesome to do some yard work, then have a huge storm dump 1" of warm rain in 15 mins. Stood out in the torrential downpour, under the water pouring off the roof it was awesome and got soaked through & through, water got in my waterproof boots.

Sounds Good!
But the water in the boots thing loses it's charm after a couple of weeks like we had down here LOL
Enjoying the sunshine these days..
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Quoting help4u:
Big decrease in TCHP will this mean alot less proability of storms developing?

wrong the water temp in that area still supports RI at a minimume not say it will happen but we need to keep open minds and be smart about things not just say it wont form, too much sheer, the truth is anything can happen
Quoting pottery:

Can you post the 2 images for comparison? Thanks

850mb vorticity


925mb vorticity
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370
Quoting Levi32:


Yet 850mb vort increased on CIMSS 0z map....wonder if there is any significant difference in how those two sites estimate vorticity.


Perhaps. 925 mb is closer to the surface. Usually we see vort developing in the mid to lower levels first then transitioning down to the surface.

It stands to reason that what we see at the 850 mb level would look better than 925 mb.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16272
Quoting Levi32:


Yet 850mb vort increased on CIMSS 0z map....wonder if there is any significant difference in how those two sites estimate vorticity.

Can you post the 2 images for comparison? Thanks
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Big decrease in TCHP will this mean alot less proability of storms developing?
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Quoting kmanislander:
The 925 mb vort is weaker in the Caribbean as compared to a few hours ago. Development not imminent.

That's interesting because 850mb vorticity increased. Yes I understand that they are at different levels but odd nonetheless.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370
Quoting pottery:
Interesting remark, Bordo.
heheheh

The pattern will most likely change in the next few days. The ITCZ is playing "see-saw", slithering northward & southward across the tropical Atlantic.

Thanks for your rain, it was awesome to do some yard work, then have a huge storm dump 1" of warm rain in 15 mins. Stood out in the torrential downpour, under the water pouring off the roof it was awesome and got soaked through & through, water got in my waterproof boots.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
NHC just gave the AOI in the central Caribbean a yellow circle!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Not tonight. Maybe in 24 hrs.

Yeah.

Hi, 09!
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Quoting kmanislander:
The 925 mb vort is weaker in the Caribbean as compared to a few hours ago. Development not imminent.



Yet 850mb vort increased on CIMSS 0z map....wonder if there is any significant difference in how those two sites estimate vorticity.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
Quoting pottery:

But possible?


Not tonight. Maybe in 24 hrs.
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Quoting kmanislander:
The 925 mb vort is weaker in the Caribbean as compared to a few hours ago. Development not imminent.


But possible?
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Quoting aquak9:
oh hi gambler!! sorry didn't see your post.
No problem, I'm overlooked all the time. Just ask my wife...How are you tonight Aqua?
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Evening Pottery.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370
The 925 mb vort is weaker in the Caribbean as compared to a few hours ago. Development not imminent.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16272
To note, the Caribbean AOI Has more 850 mb vort than pre-Alex did most of its span across the Caribbean. This doesn't have multiple vorticies competing either like Alex did.. and with TCHP and SST's so warm in the Caribbean plus with this being a smaller system and strong model support from the most reliable model I think this has a good shot for Bonnie or Colin, depending on whether 95L gets it together.
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You too, Aqua!
You got some rain?
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Quoting AllStar17:
The Caribbean AOI may be able to develop much quicker than Alex because it does not need to congeal a ton of energy, it is relatively compact already.
Pretty much yeah. 93L or pre-Alex had to deal with multiple tropical waves converging into himself, thus causing multiple vorticies that then stole energy from his main COC. Development of this system will likely take half the time that Alex took.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370
oh hi gambler!! sorry didn't see your post.
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Interesting remark, Bordo.
heheheh
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pottery music!! good to see ya!!
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How you do, Gambler?
Turned out to be a real nice day here, with a Golden Sunset. An "out-on-the -deck" evening LOL
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The Caribbean AOI may be able to develop much quicker than Alex because it does not need to congeal a ton of energy, it is relatively compact already.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Evening..
Did not get the weather we were expecting here today (11n 61w, Trinidad) due to upper level winds in a blocking pattern, pushing the convection north and east.
I am wondering whether this pattern will hold, and provide a sunny weekend right through.

I see names here I dont recognise.
"Hi" to them too.....

I am not sure how long that pattern will hold to be honest. Just say this Texan borrowed your 4"/102CM of rain this week. Finally, we have had rain every day this week, beautiful, outrageous humidity levels but loads of tropical air mass showers and storms :o)!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting stormpetrol:
My opinion only , the AOI in the Caribbean has about a 30-40% chance to become Bonnie.
I would go with an even higher chance, imo.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370
Must be raining from here to Eleuthera....

I'm going to be very interested to see how this month plays out. Normally this part of July is a relatively dry part / time for this area. It seems like we are either getting August pattern a bit early or just picking up early/mid June pattern rain-wise. Either way, adding that relatively vigourous Twave that's in the mid-ATl right now to this mix should be.... interesting, to say the least....
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966. xcool
pottery hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15707
evening pottery
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Quoting xcool:
my friend just email me he pro -met


Oh really? About what?
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963. xcool
MiamiHurri mail
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15707
My opinion only , the AOI in the Caribbean has about a 30-40% chance to become Bonnie.
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Good Evening..
Did not get the weather we were expecting here today (11n 61w, Trinidad) due to upper level winds in a blocking pattern, pushing the convection north and east.
I am wondering whether this pattern will hold, and provide a sunny weekend right through.

I see names here I dont recognise.
"Hi" to them too.....
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Quoting xcool:
my friend just email me he pro -met

Please tell us what he had to say, please, please, please :o)!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting BahaHurican:
Rain just starting here. It's really hard to take anap with thunder booming over head like this..... lol

I know the feeling we had it here the last few nights :)
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Quoting xcool:
my friend just email me he pro -met
Please elaborate on what he said. Well it depends on whether or not it's about the Caribbean AOI.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370
957. xcool
my friend just email me he pro -met
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15707
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was a large-scale pressure fall across the entire Gulf of Mexico rather than just the actual system.

good point
Rain just starting here. It's really hard to take anap with thunder booming over head like this..... lol
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

explane becuase sheared systems dont just have 2 mb pressure drops
It was a large-scale pressure fall across the entire Gulf of Mexico rather than just the actual system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21370

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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