Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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95L is subtropical heading for high shear and dry air and will hit land before conditions get better the Carib blob has good conditions warm waters and plenty off time why does the NHC give 95L a higher chance of developing?
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Quoting beell:


Probably not. Semi permanent feature over central Mexico. Thermal surface trough.




The remnants of Alex appear to extend from Colorado to Iowa to the Caribbean disturbance to the Northeast Pacific.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Colder cloud tops are developing directly south of Jamaica. Something else I noted it that the system is elongated to the east and west. I'm using NASA Rapid-Fire satellite imagery, it you would like to access it too, just click the image and you'll be directed to the site.




guess we in south florida are in for a rainny 4th
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How about Bonnie?


Not sure as yet....but conditions are there.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Here is the sea level pressure graphic that compares to the 925 mb one that I posted. You can see that the 1010 mb isobar is in the far SW Caribbean while the 1012 mb isobar passes through that area where the 850 mb vort is best seen. This reinforces that what is happening above the surface is not reflecting all the way down.



This seems to be substantiated by the data provided by this map. I still think this is due to mesoscale variations in downdrafts and the convective patterns. The satellite imagery shows convection waning over the past hours due to diurnal minimum.

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Alex part 2.
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Quoting Weather456:
I see the NHC mentioned the area. I think we will see 96L out of this disturbance.
How about Bonnie?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I see the NHC mentioned the area. I think we will see 96L out of this disturbance.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


WNW for now. Depending on how long the weakness over FLA stays around, could head N to NW for a while. There is a rather deep layered high established on the east coast though.

PSU e-WALL forecast steering suggests NW motion for at least another 48 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting washingaway:
I think the 00 NAM has (96L) tracking to far south. What do yall think?


WNW for now. Depending on how long the weakness over FLA stays around, could head N to NW for a while. There is a rather deep layered high established on the east coast though.

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1043. beell
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That "wave" over Mexico is actually one part of the remnants of Tropical Depression Alex.


Probably not. Semi permanent feature over central Mexico. Thermal surface trough.
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Colder cloud tops are developing directly south of Jamaica. Something else I noted it that the system is elongated to the east and west. I'm using NASA Rapid-Fire satellite imagery, it you would like to access it too, just click the image and you'll be directed to the site.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Doe anyone have the link for the ingore list my ignore bottons not working and need need to blook this guy ThePlywoodState
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
3 hours ago LOL


Here are my guesses/predictions for the maximum intensity (likely upper limit) for current tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, and the chances they will develop:

95L: Subtropical storm (30%)
Bahamas trough-split: Subtropical storm (20%)
Caribbean disturbance: cat. 4 (60%)
East Lesser Antillies wave: cat. 2 (70%)
Southwest Cape Verde wave: cat. 5 (50%)
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Here is the sea level pressure graphic that compares to the 925 mb one that I posted. You can see that the 1010 mb isobar is in the far SW Caribbean while the 1012 mb isobar passes through that area where the 850 mb vort is best seen. This reinforces that what is happening above the surface is not reflecting all the way down.

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes and most of the time it has been you that has brought him up. He has been banned so please leave him there.

all right i will ok can we all get bakc to the tropics
Haven't looked at the heading of this UAC but, shear is rather low in the Western Caribbean. 850 Vort is good, convection looking suspect. Surely 96L is on the horizon.

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I think the 00 NAM has (96L) tracking to far south. What do yall think?
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Quoting beell:
NCEP Fronts Valid 07/04 00Z

Photobucket
Link

Happy Birthday, America!


That "wave" over Mexico is actually one part of the remnants of Tropical Depression Alex.
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1034. 7544
hmm another yellow cicrcle by the nhc can we see two more for the 4th of july
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you that Acemmet90 guy?

um no that guy is truelly annoying unkie me
Quoting AlexEmmett:

then someone brought up JFV and even more hell broke lose for not on people dont piss each other off, back to the tropics we go
Yes and most of the time it has been you that has brought him up. He has been banned so please leave him there.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


This?


yes! Thank you very much!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Do you have one that is identical?


Not yet. Hunting around
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Good evening everyone. Hope all of you are doing well. looks like we are getting some action out there!
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

NO he doesnt even desirve his name on a storm let alone my dogs crap


Are you that Acemmet90 guy?
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Quoting KoritheMan:br
Thank you!
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1026. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Singer7:
Man - I found that by accicent a couple months ago


Many thanks for sure.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
anyone got a link to the favorable development page on Noaa? (the yellow circle page)

Thanks and good evening!!
Mark


This?
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Quoting HouGalv08:
NHC just gave the AOI in the central Caribbean a yellow circle!
3 hours ago LOL
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Quoting texascoastres:
Can someone please post a link to the track models for the system in the caribbean? Thank you At work and dont have those link on this computer!


There aren't any yet. Soon though, if convection persists till morning.
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Quoting texascoastres:
Can someone please post a link to the track models for the system in the caribbean? Thank you At work and dont have those link on this computer!


No models, because there's no invest. Yet.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Perhaps. 925 mb is closer to the surface. Usually we see vort developing in the mid to lower levels first then transitioning down to the surface.

It stands to reason that what we see at the 850 mb level would look better than 925 mb.


It may also be because the 925mb levels are more influenced by mesoscale variations.
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1019. Singer7
Man - I found that by accicent a couple months ago
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Quoting Singer7:
cyclonic-hold the control button while scrolling the mouse wheel


This.

It's not a glitch or anything. It's a natural function of your computer. No need to contact an admin.
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anyone got a link to the favorable development page on Noaa? (the yellow circle page)

Thanks and good evening!!
Mark
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Can someone please post a link to the track models for the system in the caribbean? Thank you At work and dont have those link on this computer!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
in tell this they call this 96L i think we sould name this wave JFV

NO he doesnt even desirve his name on a storm let alone my dogs crap
Quoting Singer7:
cyclonic-hold the control button while scrolling the mouse wheel


You are the Man/Woman. I had my daughter in my lap at the time, she must have been holding down the control key. Thank you!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Tough to compare different graphical layouts
Do you have one that is identical?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1012. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Tough to compare different graphical layouts

True. Beats me...
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Quoting msgambler:
evening Tim


HEY! NO TROLL HERE......LOL
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in tell this they call this 96L i think we sould name this wave JFV
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
evening Tim
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1008. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh. It's fixed now.

Thanks.
But I was wondering too, how the vort was reduced at one level and increased at the other. I see that Kman addressed that..
Interesting though.
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1007. Singer7
cyclonic-hold the control button while scrolling the mouse wheel
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There are a few bloggers that have been on for a while that post and repeat others stuff i call a Troll........LOL
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BTW, the area in the Caribbean looks rather suspicious.
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Question for ANYONE that can help. I was here earlier today and was scrolling down the page and something weird happened. For a brief bit, I was able, with the scroll wheel on my mouse, soom in and out on the whole page? Unfortunately it stopped doing that when it was completely zoomed out and everything on this page is so small you can barely read it, weirdest thing I ever seen.

I shut down and same thing and only with Wundergruond. Just wondering if anyone has had this problem or if I need to contact Admin.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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