Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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456, record rainfall in 2010 at San Juan, 40.44 inches so far this year.

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1103. xcool
epac dead.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Weather456:
Have anyone notice how quiet the WPac is?

Have anyone notice we haven't had much dust outbreaks?


Starting to think that the WPAC might see one of its, if not the most inactive season(s) on record.
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Link

15 km resolution Canadian GEM. 95L lives, but barely. Vort max develops off the NE FLA coast. Domain too small for the Carrib.
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Good night all. Tomorrow might be busy for me so better rest while I can.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1099. pottery
Quoting Weather456:
Have anyone notice how quiet the WPac is?

Have anyone notice we haven't had much dust outbreaks.

Had not noticed the quiet NPac, but now that you mention it... very quiet.
I have been keeping an eye on the SAL though. Not much of that around either for a while.
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1098. xcool
NO MJO Pac
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Weather456:
Have anyone notice how quiet the WPac is?

Have anyone notice we haven't had much dust outbreaks.
Yes to both. E Pac started out good but since Alex as Pat would say. Nuttin'
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1096. xcool
?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Have anyone notice how quiet the WPac is?

Have anyone notice we haven't had much dust outbreaks?
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Quoting Weather456:


lol, I've been busy preparing my july outlook and other stuff. I realize my time in the main blog has dropped so feel free to drop me an email.
Thanks and I sure will. Lots of questions.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Well I'm out for the evening. Have a good night everyone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1092. xcool
Skyepony MAIL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I'm turning in for tonight. The Caribbean does not look as if development is imminent. Still a lot of organization to go. Will check in tomorrow morning. Have a great evening everyone.
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1090. xcool
Skyepony 100% YES NHC & NWS ALL USED
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Should say 94L, pre Alex.
You mean 93L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1088. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
I HAVE PRO -MET software cannot used it :( I NEED Linux,


Is it that great of software? I think I might have it but never looked at it. Linux is free..
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I guess the main difference I notice with the Caribbean AOI compared to Alex is that the 850 is much better established.


Should say 94L, pre Alex.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes , I read it but just wondered if you would pop in throughout the day/night.


lol, I've been busy preparing my july outlook and other stuff. I realize my time in the main blog has dropped so feel free to drop me an email.
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I guess the main difference I notice with the Caribbean AOI compared to Alex is that the 850 is much better established.
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1083. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Here is what I think is going on . The 850 mb vort has the strongest signature just to the SSW of Jamaica. That is at the 5000 foot level.

On the other hand, the lowest sea level pressure and the lowest 925 mb pressure is situated to the SSW of the 850 mb vort. That suggests a vertical structure that is tilted from SSW to NNE.

Sea level pressure



925 mb vort ( 2500 feet )



850 mb vort ( 5000 feet )


Nice!
Thanks!
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Today's update

A few areas to watch now Alex is gone
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Quoting Weather456:
I have been posting on my blog ever since I recovered from illness (TD 1 formation) and all three areas were discussed in this morning's update.
Yes , I read it but just wondered if you would pop in throughout the day/night.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1080. xcool
I HAVE PRO -MET software cannot used it :( I NEED Linux,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
I'M SAD



You never did elaborate on what your met friend said. that I seen . Why are you sad. and can you tell what he said if it has anything to do with the tropics.
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1078. Skyepony (Mod)
If that blob in the Caribbean persists til morning I think we may see out next invest. There is a high amount moisture in the air in the area. The 850vort is consolidating under an area of 5-10kts shear. Anticyclone forming near by.
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Quoting pottery:

Understood.
But also noted that the pressure difference between the 850 and the surface would not have a clear cut-off level, right?
A gradual reduction from 850 to the surface is assumed? although in this case the 1010 and the 1012 are far apart, the vorticity is then elongated? From the SW carib. toward the NE?


Here is what I think is going on . The 850 mb vort has the strongest signature just to the SSW of Jamaica. That is at the 5000 foot level.

On the other hand, the lowest sea level pressure and the lowest 925 mb pressure is situated to the SSW of the 850 mb vort. That suggests a vertical structure that is tilted from SSW to NNE.

Sea level pressure



925 mb vort ( 2500 feet )



850 mb vort ( 5000 feet )

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1076. pottery
Quoting Weather456:


You mean the wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Very strong wave and we cannot discount anything now. In my July outlook we can expect an above normal July as what appears to be some real activity this week.

I was expecting rains here today, but the convection has been forming up more to the north today in that wave. Looks like DMIN has done a job on it, and DMAX will be fun to watch.
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1075. xcool
I'M SAD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
NAM 84 hrs. out

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Quoting Weather456:


You mean the wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Very strong wave and we cannot discount anything now. In my July outlook we can expect an above normal July as what appears to be some real activity this week.
Yeah the wave east of the Antilles. Your outlook should be an interesting read to say the least.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1072. xcool
i have pro software cannot used it :(

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Weather456:
Bonnie and Collin?

The area offshore the SW Atlantic is a July hotspot and comes along the tail end of the same frontal boundary 95L is attached to. I suspect these two areas have higher chances than 95L



Agreed.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
How about the strong wave over the lesser Antilles. Although it has poor model support, it will have favorable conditions ahead.


You mean the wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Very strong wave and we cannot discount anything now. In my July outlook we can expect an above normal July as what appears to be some real activity this week.
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Quoting Weather456:
Bonnie and Collin?

The area offshore the SW Atlantic is a July hotspot and comes along the tail end of the same frontal boundary 95L is attached to. I suspect these two areas have higher chances than 95L

How about the strong wave over the lesser Antilles. Although it has poor model support, it will have favorable conditions ahead.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

MNC089-040330-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-100704T0330Z/
MARSHALL MN-
946 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 941 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ARGYLE...OR 30 MILES EAST OF GRAFTON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15
MPH.

THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OLD MILL STATE PARK AND FLORIAN AROUND 1005 PM CDT.
ENGLUND AROUND 1010 PM CDT.
STRANDQUIST AND MIDDLE RIVER AROUND 1030 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES
FOR A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4828 9675 4845 9686 4854 9656 4853 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 251DEG 13KT 4841 9672

$$

TG
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Bonnie and Collin?

The area offshore the SW Atlantic is a July hotspot and comes along the tail end of the same frontal boundary 95L is attached to. I suspect these two areas have higher chances than 95L

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Quoting Weather456:
Alex part 2.


That's the kind of storm the NOGAPS had been predicting out of the collision between the ICTZ and Alex's outflow since Alex first formed.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
PSU e-WALL forecast steering suggests NW motion for at least another 48 hours.


Makes sense as this weakness is supposed to be all cleared out by Monday.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


WNW for now. Depending on how long the weakness over FLA stays around, could head N to NW for a while. There is a rather deep layered high established on the east coast though.



I think future 96L could take a track northwestward across the Caribbean, then northeast, clipping Cuba, entering the Yucatan channel northward into the eastern GOM, then westward toward northeastern Mexico, then a turn to the west-northwest into South Texas. Plenty of warm water along that track.
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Quoting Weather456:
Alex part 2.


Large coverage that's for sure. We should all be in tip top shape after Alex though.
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I have been posting on my blog ever since I recovered from illness (TD 1 formation) and all three areas were discussed in this morning's update.
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1060. bassis
Quoting beell:
NCEP Fronts Valid 07/04 00Z

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Happy Birthday, America!


What exactly does this mean when they put a front simble over that wave? I did not see the front simble earlier
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
PSU e-WALL forecast steering suggests NW motion for at least another 48 hours.


I was wondering if CIMMS steering took into account both highs and the weakness doing the driving, apparently not.
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Quoting Weather456:
I see the NHC mentioned the area. I think we will see 96L out of this disturbance.
Aaah. The voice of reason. I was wondering where you were.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1057. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
Here is the sea level pressure graphic that compares to the 925 mb one that I posted. You can see that the 1010 mb isobar is in the far SW Caribbean while the 1012 mb isobar passes through that area where the 850 mb vort is best seen. This reinforces that what is happening above the surface is not reflecting all the way down.


Understood.
But also noted that the pressure difference between the 850 and the surface would not have a clear cut-off level, right?
A gradual reduction from 850 to the surface is assumed? although in this case the 1010 and the 1012 are far apart, the vorticity is then elongated? From the SW carib. toward the NE?
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1056. srada
Quoting Weather456:
I see the NHC mentioned the area. I think we will see 96L out of this disturbance.


Hi Weather456,

what are your thoughts on the area that Dr. Masters mentioned around the SC area possibly developing?
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My July outlook is finished, should be posted tomorrow.
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95L is subtropical heading for high shear and dry air and will hit land before conditions get better the Carib blob has good conditions warm waters and plenty off time why does the NHC give 95L a higher chance of developing?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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