Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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1154. 7544
yeap isee too 96l soon
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1153. will45
Quoting MississippiWx:


Sorry, but sometimes things need to be quoted so people know what's up.


Just be carefull they can ban for quoting a statement like his was
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Sorry, but sometimes things need to be quoted so people know what's up.
Lots of pple are minusing the quoter as well as the quote. In fact such trollers are counting on u quoting them because so many pple already have them on ignore or filtered out.

So pls don't quote them....
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Speculation on the TWO at 2 am? I believe 95L will be down to a 10%, Caribbean AOI 20%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24477
1150. angiest
Quoting soclueless:
@1126 & @1127 thank you both for your answers, was just wondering because to me alex looked out of place, he should have been pacific, and never saw a tropical storm kill a cat 2 or 3 {can't remember what Darby was at the time} hurricane like that before, to me that makes for some strange weather


I think Alex was significantly larger than Darby, which possibly contributed to the latter's demise. Also, was Darby still that strong at the time or was he already weakening?
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1149. xcool
KWRF MODELS SHOWS 1007MB IN Gulf AKA 95L
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1148. Patrap
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Quoting futuremet:


Please do not quote him.


Sorry, but sometimes things need to be quoted so people know what's up.
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Does anyone think that the disturbance in the southwest Caribbean is going to develop into something to be concerned about?
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@1126 & @1127 thank you both for your answers, was just wondering because to me alex looked out of place, he should have been pacific, and never saw a tropical storm kill a cat 2 or 3 {can't remember what Darby was at the time} hurricane like that before, to me that makes for some strange weather
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1144. guygee
Quoting soclueless:
Out of lurking for a moment to ask a ? weather related does anyone think that the shift of the earth's axis by the Haiti earthquake could have anything to do with the strange weather pattern's? and good evening to everyone.
The parameters of the Earth's orbit around the sun that directly relate to climate are eccentricity, obliquity and precession, known as the Milankovitch cycles. Here is a very basic and easy to read tutorial on the Milankovitch cycles with nice graphics.

These orbital elements are chaotic with respect to small perturbations, but can be predicted with good accuracy out to 20-30 million years, so we are not affected until at least that long by small changes like those due to earthquakes, volcanoes or the building/erosion of mountain ranges.
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Quoting xcool:



oh yeah anticyclone move soon to be 96L
Yep moving towards it.
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1142. angiest
Th 12Z CMC is "interesting."

Link
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1141. xcool



oh yeah anticyclone move soon to be 96L
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Quoting soclueless:
Was just wondering if there might could be a possible connection, Haiti earthquake also shifted the earth's axis.


I guess if you think of it this way: the circumference of the earth is about 131 million feet. 3 inches is about therefore about 1/600 millionth of the circumference. The change in solar radiation any single point on earth would therefore change by a maximum of one 600 millionth, or 1 sixty-billionth of one percent. This is not a significant amount and would be very very unlikely to affect weather patterns.
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Hey guys i see we have something to watch actually a few areas to watch for development the next few days but 95L is not looking so good right now but the caribbean blob could become 96L by morning and bonnie later on but im getting ahead of myself lets see if it can organize.
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Quoting xcool:
Hmmm.... is that a closed isobar east of the Bahamas?

I was about to say re. a potential system off S. Carolina that if it is supposed to form from this stagnant frontal system, there sure is enough energy / instability there....
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hasn't it already been proven that this is JFV trying to pose as Drakoen? See if I ever respond to one of your posts again.



Please do not quote him.
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1136. angiest
Link

The shift of mass and the massive release of energy very slightly altered the Earth's rotation. The exact amount is not yet known, but theoretical models suggest the earthquake shortened the length of a day by 2.68 microseconds, due to a decrease in the oblateness of the Earth.[28] It also caused the Earth to minutely "wobble" on its axis by up to 2.5 cm (1 in) in the direction of 145° east longitude,[29] or perhaps by up to 5 or 6 cm (2.0 to 2.4 in).[30] However, because of tidal effects of the Moon, the length of a day increases at an average of 15 µs per year, so any rotational change due to the earthquake will be lost quickly. Similarly, the natural Chandler wobble of the Earth, which in some cases can be up to 15 m (50 ft), will eventually offset the minor wobble produced by the earthquake.
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Quoting DrakoenG:
I hate white people.


Hasn't it already been proven that this is JFV trying to pose as Drakoen? See if I ever respond to one of your posts again.

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Hey all hope ya'll had a nice blog. See that the main threater (yes I know who uses that word). Is future 96L.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3777
1132. xcool
watchingnva ?
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Was just wondering if there might could be a possible connection, Haiti earthquake also shifted the earth's axis.
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DrakoenG, please refrain from using such language here in this blog. I suggest you remove this derogatory comment before getting banned.
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yep, the good docs blog needs to go paid...bottom line...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Starting to think that the WPAC might see one of its, if not the most inactive season(s) on record.
IMO another sign of a [hyper]active ATL season....
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Quoting soclueless:
@1113, wasn't 2004 active?


yes it was, but there is no evidence to suggest that the precession of the earth (the tilt of its orbital axis) is affected by earthquakes. They are not an external force, and only a force external to the planet could alter its tilt. Now, the tilt itself wobbles on a long time frame (70K years, I think) but its not a consequence of earthquakes.
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1126. angiest
Quoting soclueless:
Out of lurking for a moment to ask a ? weather related does anyone think that the shift of the earth's axis by the Haiti earthquake could have anything to do with the strange weather pattern's? and good evening to everyone.


Large earthquakes (and I believe they have to be at least an order of magnitude larger than the Haitian earthquake) can cause changes to the earth in a number of ways, but they are very small changes that are not noticeable to humans directly, and any effect they have is fairly short-lived as other long-term processes that act on and in the earth eventually erase those small changes.

The tilt of the earth's axis changes naturally at speeds on the order of tens of thousands of years, and the earth's axis also rotates as the earth rotates (precession), again at a rate of several tens of thousands of years to complete one complete rotation.
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@1122 chile earthquake shifted earth's axis in 2004 by 3 inches
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1124. xcool
DrakoenG poof
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1122. xcool
yes 2004 active
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@1113, wasn't 2004 active?
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1120. xcool



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1119. leo305
what was ALEX is flaring up around TEXAS/MEXICO border
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1118. guygee
Quoting xcool:
I HAVE PRO -MET software cannot used it :( I NEED Linux,
It is a lot easier than you might think. Reccommended Linux distributions: Debian or Ubuntu.
Google "linux windows dual boot how to" for setting up on a single machine. If I can do it so can you.
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1117. xcool
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
looks like 95L is wasting away...


...And as it does, our attention turns to likely pre-96L.
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1115. xcool
poor 95l
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looks like 95L is wasting away...
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Quoting soclueless:
Out of lurking for a moment to ask a ? weather related does anyone think that the shift of the earth's axis by the Haiti earthquake could have anything to do with the strange weather pattern's? and good evening to everyone.


Nope. Its not a strange weather pattern either. Why would you think there would be a connection?
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something else of potential interest is a subtropical storm developing near 65W 40N during the next few days. Model QPF and vertical motion is high and the feed is high PWAT. The circulation gets embedded in a region of 570 dm thickness which normally indicates air of Tropical origin. Of fish-interest only, though :)

Link

This is a good link, btw, especially for ensembles.
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1111. xcool
7544 hey
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Quoting Weather456:


expect alot more this rainy season...i think i told you guys above average rains earlier this year.


Is interesting that some of the analogs for 2010 are among the most rainy years.
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Well, my power went out just after that last post I made. I was standing at my door watching the "lightning show" when a bolt knocked out a transformer in my area and plunged the neighbourhood into darkness. All is quiet now...

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
456, record rainfall in 2010 at San Juan, 40.44 inches so far this year.

Link


expect alot more this rainy season...i think i told you guys above average rains earlier this year.
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Out of lurking for a moment to ask a ? weather related does anyone think that the shift of the earth's axis by the Haiti earthquake could have anything to do with the strange weather pattern's? and good evening to everyone.
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1106. 7544
hi xcool happy 4th
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You mean 93L.


Yeah your right, it was 93L. The everlasting invest. Thank You for the clarification.
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456, record rainfall in 2010 at San Juan, 40.44 inches so far this year.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.