Alex, strongest June hurricane in 44 years, is now a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on July 01, 2010

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Hurricane Alex, the strongest June hurricane in 44 years, is Tropical Storm Alex, thanks to passage over the rugged terrain of Mexico. Alex made landfall at 9pm CDT last night, 110 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Alex was the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966, which had 125 mph winds as it skirted the west coast of Florida. Brownsville long-range radar shows that Alex's heavy rains continue to pound the Texas/Mexico border region, and satellite estimates of rainfall (Figure 1) show that some of Alex's spiral bands dumped rains in excess of five inches today, in addition to the 5+ inches that fell yesterday. The Brownsville airport received 6.46" of rain as of 8am CDT today from Alex. Alex is being blamed for at least thirteen deaths in Central America and Mexico due to flooding, though none of these deaths occurred in the region where the storm made landfall. Alex spawned two tornadoes that hit South Texas, and there were at least four other reports of tornado funnel clouds that did not touch ground. Alex may continue to spawn isolated tornadoes today over South Texas and northern Mexico.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall so far today for Alex.


Figure 2. Snapshot of the Brownsville long-range radar showing Hurricane Alex at landfall at 8pm CDT Wednesday June 30, 2010.


Figure 3. Alex nearing landfall in northeastern Mexico at 12:10 CDT June 30, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Storm Surge
Alex's maximum storm surge occurred along a 50-mile stretch of the Mexican coast centered about 75 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. The National Hurricane Center Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model predicted that the maximum water depth at the coast reached about 5 - 6 feet above ground level (Figure 3.) A storm surge of 1 - 2 feet was predicted by SLOSH for the Brownsville, Texas region. A storm surge of about 2 feet was observed in South Texas at the South Padre Island Coast Guard Station and Port Isabel.


Figure 4. Hurricane Alex's Maximum Water Depth (storm tide minus the elevation of the land it is passing over) computed using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. The maximum surge occurred to the right of where Alex's core made landfall, over a sparsely populated marshy area. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of five feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is ten feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. For more information on storm surge, consult our detailed storm surge pages.

Alex in historical context
Alex is the first June hurricane since Hurricane Allison of 1995. There have been only eleven hurricanes in May or June since 1945; only four of these were major Category 3 or higher storms.

Alex's bizarre behavior
Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest run of the NOGAPS model predicts the formation of a tropical depression the Western Caribbean on Tuesday. None of the other models is showing tropical development worthy of concern over the coming seven days.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Alex is continuing to generate very rough conditions over the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, with 5 - 9 foot waves and 3 - 4 foot swells. The wind and seas will gradually subside today, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents induced by Alex's strong winds will push oil to many protected bays and estuaries that haven't seen oil yet. The latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana show oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Winds will decrease to 5 - 15 knots Friday through Tuesday but remain mostly out of the southeast, keeping the pressure on the regions of coast in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi that are seeing oil hit their shores this week.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning. Dr. Rob Carver plans on summarizing Alex in his blog later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex

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2am TWO from the NHC was uneventful, as expected.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1792. Skyepony (Mod)
Here's one for the late night Gulf scary tales..



PRESS RELEASE
Date Released: Tuesday, July 29, 1997
Source: Pennsylvania State University

Methane Ice Worms
Hesiocaeca methanicola

(larger view)
A team of university scientists using a mini research submarine on a NOAA-funded research cruise has discovered, photographed, and sampled what appears to be a new species of centipede-like worms living on and within mounds of methane ice on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico, about 150 miles south of New Orleans.

Although scientists had hypothesized that bacteria might colonize methane ice mounds, called gas hydrates, this is the first time animals have been found living in the mounds.

The discovery of dense colonies of these one-to-two-inch-long, flat, pinkish worms burrowing into a mushroom-shaped mound of methane seeping up from the sea floor raises speculation that the worms may be a new species with a pervasive and as yet unknown influence on these energy-rich gas deposits.

The worms were observed using their two rows of oar-like appendages to move about the honeycombed, yellow and white surface of the icy mound. The researchers speculate that the worms may be grazing off chemosynthetic bacteria that grow on the methane or are otherwise living symbiotically with them.

"The old view that the deep sea bottom is a monotonous habitat needs to be discarded. These worms are the major players in a new and unique marine ecosystem," said expedition Chief Scientist Charles Fisher, an associate professor of biology at Penn State, who discovered the methane ice worms in waters 1,800 feet deep in the submersible Johnson Sea Link with sub pilot Phil Santos of the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution.

The scientists have also managed to keep a number of the exotic worms alive in shoreside laboratories for further study.

"These are not just another common worm in the mud. We now know that these higher-order organisms can live right on methane hydrates. If these animals turn out to be ubiquitous on shallow seafloor gas deposits, possibly worldwide, they could have a significant impact on how these deposits are formed and dissolve in seawater and on how we go about mining or otherwise harvesting this natural gas as a source of energy," Fisher said.
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1791. xcool
ECMWF SOON.
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You are correct Levi.It is an older post from the Tallahassee NWS.It was posted at 4:00 this afternoon.I didnt see the date at first.
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1789. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:
And WT jumpin jelly beans is That??? Shows it comin off the gulf by tomorrow night.





Yuppp it will be over water tomorrow, but development, if any, should still be 2-3 days away.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1788. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:


OH BROTHER :(

Tropics quieting down, becoming active in about a week...
Posted: Jul 01, 2010 8:49 PM CDT Updated: Jul 02, 2010 12:05 AM CDT

With Alex continuing to weaken over the mountains of Mexico, the Tropics are finally quieting down.

In about a week, the Tropics are forecasted to become very active once again.

Model data suggests two systems may develop in or move into the Gulf of Mexico. This far out, much can change - this is not set in stone. This is an outlook that attempts to give Southeast Texans the earliest possible heads up in this active hurricane season so it is advised that you be prepared.

The first system, which hasn't even developed, is forecasted to form over the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) around the 8th. The European, which nailed the track of Hurricane Alex, is forecasting a possible tropical depression. The system is forecasted to move into Northeastern Mexico thanks to upper-level high pressure over our area which will protect us.

The second system, a tropical wave, is currently located near 34 degrees Latitude. The wave is forecasted to move through the Caribbean and then into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 11th. The models show upper-level high pressure to be centered over the SW U.S. This should block the disturbance and keep it into the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the European suggests that it may become a tropical storm


Unfortunately, the 0z GFS is joining the party, showing a tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico at the same time as this morning's ECMWF did.

240 hours:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
And WT jumpin jelly beans is That??? Shows it comin off the gulf by tomorrow night.



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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX


With Alex continuing to weaken over the mountains of Mexico, the Tropics are finally quieting down.

In about a week, the Tropics are forecasted to become very active once again.

Model data suggests two systems may develop in or move into the Gulf of Mexico. This far out, much can change - this is not set in stone. This is an outlook that attempts to give Southeast Texans the earliest possible heads up in this active hurricane season so it is advised that you be prepared.

The first system, which hasn't even developed, is forecasted to form over the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) around the 8th. The European, which nailed the track of Hurricane Alex, is forecasting a possible tropical depression. The system is forecasted to move into Northeastern Mexico thanks to upper-level high pressure over our area which will protect us.

The second system, a tropical wave, is currently located near 34 degrees Latitude. The wave is forecasted to move through the Caribbean and then into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 11th. The models show upper-level high pressure to be centered over the SW U.S. This should block the disturbance and keep it into the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the European suggests that it may become a tropical storm.

Why is this season expected to be so active? There are four reasons. The main cause is that La Nina has developed. La Nina is the cooling of Pacific waters off of Central America. This phenomena causes the trade winds to weaken. Less wind means less shear. The second reason for a busy season is the low shear environment. Tropical waves will have an environment where their thunderstorms will not be sheared apart meaning they can easily develop. Also, with less shear, there will be less dry air intrusion from Africa. A more moist atmosphere over the Tropical Atlantic will be more conducive for thunderstorms to develop which is the third reason for an active 2010 Hurricane Season. Finally, near-record water temperatures will assist storm development. Sea surface temperatures are running between two and four degrees above-normal in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. Many of the top hurricane researchers are calling for a much-above active season and 2010 could be one the top ten busiest years.

Again, we are in good shape right now, but model data forecasts increasing activity in about a week.


OOPS! Late again.
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1785. xcool
WOW 108 CMC
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Quoting Levi32:
0z CMC shows development west of Florida but takes it across the state to the other side, which doesn't make much sense given that the trough there will be lifting out, but the main point to take away from the run is that it shows development.

144 hours Day 6: (our low is off of St. Augustine here)



OH BROTHER :(

Tropics quieting down, becoming active in about a week...
Posted: Jul 01, 2010 8:49 PM CDT Updated: Jul 02, 2010 12:05 AM CDT

With Alex continuing to weaken over the mountains of Mexico, the Tropics are finally quieting down.

In about a week, the Tropics are forecasted to become very active once again.

Model data suggests two systems may develop in or move into the Gulf of Mexico. This far out, much can change - this is not set in stone. This is an outlook that attempts to give Southeast Texans the earliest possible heads up in this active hurricane season so it is advised that you be prepared.

The first system, which hasn't even developed, is forecasted to form over the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) around the 8th. The European, which nailed the track of Hurricane Alex, is forecasting a possible tropical depression. The system is forecasted to move into Northeastern Mexico thanks to upper-level high pressure over our area which will protect us.

The second system, a tropical wave, is currently located near 34 degrees Latitude. The wave is forecasted to move through the Caribbean and then into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 11th. The models show upper-level high pressure to be centered over the SW U.S. This should block the disturbance and keep it into the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the European suggests that it may become a tropical storm
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1783. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Im actually sort of wondering if the development wont be on the east coast/ an over florida attempt. On the satellite it looks like all the convection and energy is getting pushed over Florida/ just east of Florida. Looking at the steering currents things should move west anyway but I wouldnt be surprised to see a low off the east coast of Florida.


Both sides of Florida have to be watched but anything east of Florida is more likely to be sheared. In any case, the low that will be moving out over the NE gulf tomorrow is unlikely to cross over Florida to the other side.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1782. Levi32
Quoting mrsalagranny:



THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY A COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. 18Z OBS INDICATE
A 1018MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER APALACHEE BAY.


THE EVOLUTION OF THIS VORT MAX AND SFC REFLECTION PROVIDE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS GRADUALLY ALLOW A SFC LOW TO ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THE GFS LOW TRACKS
SLOWLY WEST AND MEANDERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST. THE CANADIAN TRACKS THE LOW TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH
LESS BULLISH...PREFERRING TO KEEP THE DISTURBANCE AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH (NAM) OR A VERY WEAK SFC LOW (ECMWF) AND TRACKING IT SLOWLY
WEST. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS IN THE GFS SHOWS VERY
HIGH QPF OVER THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM STABLE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FROM THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION. THIS IS OFTEN A SIGN OF GRID-SCALE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WHICH WE BELIEVE IS HELPING THE GFS TO SPURIOUSLY SPIN-UP
THE SFC LOW. A SIMILAR FEEDBACK MAY BE SPINNING THE LOW UP IN THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION. IN CONTRAST...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS...WITH UPDATED CONVECTIVE SCHEMES...DOES NOT SHOW ANY SPIN-UP
OF A SFC LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.




So whatever NWS office that came from, they agree with me on the surface low southeast of Tallahassee.

On the 2nd point, the new 0z GFS parallel does show "spurious" development, so it is doubtful that it is a convective feedback problem.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX


With Alex continuing to weaken over the mountains of Mexico, the Tropics are finally quieting down.

In about a week, the Tropics are forecasted to become very active once again.

Model data suggests two systems may develop in or move into the Gulf of Mexico. This far out, much can change - this is not set in stone. This is an outlook that attempts to give Southeast Texans the earliest possible heads up in this active hurricane season so it is advised that you be prepared.

The first system, which hasn't even developed, is forecasted to form over the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) around the 8th. The European, which nailed the track of Hurricane Alex, is forecasting a possible tropical depression. The system is forecasted to move into Northeastern Mexico thanks to upper-level high pressure over our area which will protect us.

The second system, a tropical wave, is currently located near 34 degrees Latitude. The wave is forecasted to move through the Caribbean and then into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 11th. The models show upper-level high pressure to be centered over the SW U.S. This should block the disturbance and keep it into the Central or Eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the European suggests that it may become a tropical storm.

Why is this season expected to be so active? There are four reasons. The main cause is that La Nina has developed. La Nina is the cooling of Pacific waters off of Central America. This phenomena causes the trade winds to weaken. Less wind means less shear. The second reason for a busy season is the low shear environment. Tropical waves will have an environment where their thunderstorms will not be sheared apart meaning they can easily develop. Also, with less shear, there will be less dry air intrusion from Africa. A more moist atmosphere over the Tropical Atlantic will be more conducive for thunderstorms to develop which is the third reason for an active 2010 Hurricane Season. Finally, near-record water temperatures will assist storm development. Sea surface temperatures are running between two and four degrees above-normal in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. Many of the top hurricane researchers are calling for a much-above active season and 2010 could be one the top ten busiest years.

Again, we are in good shape right now, but model data forecasts increasing activity in about a week.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Levi32:
0z CMC shows development west of Florida but takes it across the state to the other side, which doesn't make much sense given that the trough there will be lifting out, but the main point to take away from the run is that it shows development.

144 hours Day 6: (our low is off of St. Augustine here)



Im actually sort of wondering if the development wont be on the east coast/ an over florida attempt. On the satellite it looks like all the convection and energy is getting pushed over Florida/ just east of Florida. Looking at the steering currents things should move west anyway but I wouldnt be surprised to see a low off the east coast of Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY A COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. 18Z OBS INDICATE
A 1018MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER APALACHEE BAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS VORT MAX AND SFC REFLECTION PROVIDE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS GRADUALLY ALLOW A SFC LOW TO ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THE GFS LOW TRACKS
SLOWLY WEST AND MEANDERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST. THE CANADIAN TRACKS THE LOW TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH
LESS BULLISH...PREFERRING TO KEEP THE DISTURBANCE AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH (NAM) OR A VERY WEAK SFC LOW (ECMWF) AND TRACKING IT SLOWLY
WEST. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS IN THE GFS SHOWS VERY
HIGH QPF OVER THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM STABLE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FROM THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION. THIS IS OFTEN A SIGN OF GRID-SCALE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WHICH WE BELIEVE IS HELPING THE GFS TO SPURIOUSLY SPIN-UP
THE SFC LOW. A SIMILAR FEEDBACK MAY BE SPINNING THE LOW UP IN THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION. IN CONTRAST...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS...WITH UPDATED CONVECTIVE SCHEMES...DOES NOT SHOW ANY SPIN-UP
OF A SFC LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

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1778. xcool
:0
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Haven't been around much...missing all the fun. What happened to that guy last night that was right in the thick of things still on his computer. Said the house next to him was gone or something.
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1776. Levi32
0z CMC shows development west of Florida but takes it across the state to the other side, which doesn't make much sense given that the trough there will be lifting out, but the main point to take away from the run is that it shows development.

144 hours Day 6: (our low is off of St. Augustine here)

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Please explain.
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1774. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes 20


Well...
I should consider going to live to Alaska with Levi then. xD
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Quoting xcool:
NEW CMC SHOW HOPE


huh?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting aspectre:
1753 Patrap "Oil Sightings Report July 1, 2010..."

I dunno whether to sigh and let the tears start to flow, or grit my teeth in rage. Despite the skeeters, some of the most magically "I can't believe it's this beautiful, this alive" places in the world.


And I've heard in reports that that's not all of it - that the worst of it is offshore - where there are packs of dead and dying dolphins and struggling sperm whales. I suspect there is a certain amount of a media blackout going on - to prevent people from "having to look at all the suffering". :-(

I've heard the oil is very very bad about 12 miles offshore. And all of that - with the dead fish, dolphins, whales, etc. is mixing in with the oil and the dispersants and God knows what else...

All I can say is God help us all, and PLEASE keep reminding people of what has happened and is continuing to happen every day in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm so afraid that complacency is going to set in. Especially given that we are all so helpless... :-(
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1771. xcool
NEW CMC SHOW HOPE
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1770. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's why we lov ya Levi. You can look at that and know what it shows. Lol. Thanks for the translation. :)


Lol, no problem :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1769. Levi32
Quoting mrsalagranny:
very true.its like to them it is not important unless it is a major cane.JMO


I hate how they play their dumb programming during tornado events and such...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Levi32:
Trough-split number 1 south of Alabama at 60 hours is already potent on the GFS.



That's why we lov ya Levi. You can look at that and know what it shows. Lol. Thanks for the translation. :)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ever hear anyone there now say anything about models. They are now puppets and only report what is reported to them...they don't forecast!


Bingo!
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very true.its like to them it is not important unless it is a major cane.JMO
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1765. Levi32
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I wonder why the TWC isnt sayng anything about a possible area off the Coast of Florida?


Because it isn't over water yet and for now is not an immediate concern. It will only be a concern if it gets out there and starts trying to develop, and only at that point will they mention it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I wonder why the TWC isnt sayng anything about a possible area off the Coast of Florida?


Ever hear anyone there now say anything about models. They are now puppets and only report what is reported to them...they don't forecast!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Evening All.

I don't think I am the only one to say, Alex wore me out, lol.

Anyway

The doors to the deep tropics are opening up this weekend, first tropical wave into SFL. I hope all have REALLY prepared this year. Alex, as tiring as it was, may be a common sight this year. A lot of hype has built up over the years and rightly so. But, there is an enormous amount of heat build up across the entire Atlantic this year and when it comes, it's coming full gorilla.


Yep Alex was a doozie. Especially since he went against climatology and into Mexico. Local met said the next storm the Euro shows will probably go the same place. I hope not. Saw a man boarding up his "hut" as the caption described it. This season's already been dangerous. I hope everyone's prepared too. They're nothing to play with. If you have a way out be grateful that you do and take care of you and yours.
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I wonder why the TWC isnt sayng anything about a possible area off the Coast of Florida?
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1761. xcool
MY .july Forecast 3 storms & start from july 01 to july 17.
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I would say in July because of the strong MJO coming we will have 3 named storms tracking at once.
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1753 Patrap "Oil Sightings Report July 1, 2010..."

I dunno whether to sigh and let the tears start to flow, or grit my teeth in rage. Despite the skeeters, some of the most magically "I can't believe it's this beautiful, this alive" places in the world.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
I will say that I think that we might have 95L 96L 97L within the next 2-4 weeks This is all I have to say and good night I have a party That I need to prep for tomrrow and I need to sleep so I'm out
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Quoting JLPR2:


7 storms? You're nuts Taz! XD
So how many in September? 20? :S



yes 20
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1756. xcool
LMAO
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1755. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think will be up too the H storm by the end of july


7 storms? You're nuts Taz! XD
So how many in September? 20? :S
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1754. xcool
HMM
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1753. Patrap
Oil Sightings Report July 1, 2010

Iberia Parish:
Sighting: Oil sheen in Bayou Teche on the Charenton Level
Date: 1 Jul 10

***

Jefferson Parish:
Sighting: Heavy oil located on west and east Fourchon beach.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Large gray sheen in Caminada Pass.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Gray oil sheen with large tar balls located .75 miles S of Beauregard Island.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil with tar balls located in Barataria Pass.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil sheen with tar balls located in Pass Abel.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil located in Barataria Pass near Grand Terre.
Date: 1 Jul 10

***

Lafourche Parish:
Sighting: Oil located in the bay of the Fornation Islands
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Heavy streamers of oil located 2 miles SE of Timbalier Bay Camp Seaplane Base.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Heavy oil streamers on unnamed island located 2.25 miles W of Belle Pass in Timbalier Bay.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Emulsified oil in the mouth of Belle Pass
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Heavy oil streamers on the NW shoreline of Bay Champagne.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Heavy oil streamers in the marsh located NE of Bay Champagne.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil sighted 1.5 SE of Bay Champagne.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Oil and sheen in marsh 2.25 miles SW of Elmer's Island.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Heavy oil located southeast of Timbalier Island
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Gray oil sheen line about 100 ft wide with tar balls located 1 mile E of Raccoon Lake.
Date: 1 Jul 10

***

Plaquemines Parish:
Sighting: Oil located on the beach N of Grand Terre.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Tar on marsh grass located 1 mile SE of Bay Batiste.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Heavy oil sheen located miles N of Cat Bay.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil sheen located miles SW of Burrwood Production Heliport.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil sheen located in South West Pass of the Mississippi river.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil located miles N of Cognevich Pass.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Heavy oil located 1 mile South of Straight Bayou.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Sheen with tar balls located miles SW of Bay Jimmy.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Sheen with tar balls located 1.5 miles SW of Bay Jimmy.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil located 1/3 mile NE of Johnson Pass.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil located miles N of English Bayou.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil located on the Beach of Isle Grand Terre.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil sheen entering Dennis Pass at the Mississippi River Delta area.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil sheen located in Bayou Alphonse.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

Sighting: Oil located 9 miles SW of Garden Island Bay.
Date: 1 Jul 10.

***

St. Bernard Parish:
Sighting: Tar balls located 1 mile N of Octavia Pass.
Date: 1 Jul 10

***

Terrebonne Parish:
Sighting: Red oil located at the pass between Bay Long and Bay Chaland
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil located S of an unnamed island between Bay Welsh and Bay Chaland
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil mats and sheen in the marsh off an island W of Tambour Cutoff.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil located in Bay Welsh N of Cooke Point.
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil located on beach 1 mile NE of Tambour Bay
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil impacting the NE shore of Lake Pelto
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil into marsh island SE of Tambour Bay
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil located into marsh on SE side of the mouth of the Petit Bayou Cailou
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil located into marsh N of Tambour Cutoff
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Gray sheen with tar balls located in the NE side of Pelican Lake
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Oil sheen located at the mouth of the Houma Navigation Canal
Date: 1 Jul 10

Sighting: Large sheen streamers with oil patties located at the entrance of Timbalier Bay
Date: 1 Jul 10
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Lightning through a sunset rainbow in KualaLumpur
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1751. Patrap
Hard to say about the BOP..seems the seas have it ,,the containment device hopping around.

But BP and the CG dont say squat.

They too Busy with stalling request,,stopping reporters and other stuff that could fill a Blog for a decade seems.

In 3-4 States.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
1750. Levi32
0z GFS parallel is significantly showing the low near the north gulf coast for the first time.

60 hours:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1749. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
levi:based on surface obs,I think they have it in the right general area...


Having a low up in NW Georgia and none east of Tallahassee is just weird.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
I will take the TS please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1747. Levi32
Quoting mrsalagranny:
levi if this low does develop,what is the probable intensity it would be?


Likely a weak system due to proximity to land and moderate wind shear, especially during the beginning of its lifetime if it forms. A TD or weak TS would be all to expect if it gets pulled inland after 48 hours over water. There is the chance it stays over water though and heads west towards favorable upper-level conditions where the TUTT to the east would ventilate it, in which case it could get stronger than that, but that's just speculation until we get a system, if we get one.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Patrap:


.."Dem BP Folks best get a Move on with dem Holes they drilling.

Ma nature has her Plan..





IS the BOP tilting more as it appears or is just the picture we are looking at....afraid the up and down pressure from above has done something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrsalagranny:
levi if this low does develop,what is the probable intensity it would be?


Waters are very warm, shear will be marginally favorable as the trough moves out of the area, diffluent pattern aloft, moisture is plentiful...the issue would be the proximity to land (time available to organize). But I think a tropical storm could easily be supported if there is indeed a cutoff low...and if it hangs around long enough to be influenced by the forecast trough split in 72-96 hours...it will have even better conditions to work with.
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1744. Patrap
Yup..the GOM and the Basin is Dealing Sept Aces when we usually see Low Cards..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
1743. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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