Alex, strongest June hurricane in 44 years, is now a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on July 01, 2010

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Hurricane Alex, the strongest June hurricane in 44 years, is Tropical Storm Alex, thanks to passage over the rugged terrain of Mexico. Alex made landfall at 9pm CDT last night, 110 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Alex was the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966, which had 125 mph winds as it skirted the west coast of Florida. Brownsville long-range radar shows that Alex's heavy rains continue to pound the Texas/Mexico border region, and satellite estimates of rainfall (Figure 1) show that some of Alex's spiral bands dumped rains in excess of five inches today, in addition to the 5+ inches that fell yesterday. The Brownsville airport received 6.46" of rain as of 8am CDT today from Alex. Alex is being blamed for at least thirteen deaths in Central America and Mexico due to flooding, though none of these deaths occurred in the region where the storm made landfall. Alex spawned two tornadoes that hit South Texas, and there were at least four other reports of tornado funnel clouds that did not touch ground. Alex may continue to spawn isolated tornadoes today over South Texas and northern Mexico.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall so far today for Alex.


Figure 2. Snapshot of the Brownsville long-range radar showing Hurricane Alex at landfall at 8pm CDT Wednesday June 30, 2010.


Figure 3. Alex nearing landfall in northeastern Mexico at 12:10 CDT June 30, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Storm Surge
Alex's maximum storm surge occurred along a 50-mile stretch of the Mexican coast centered about 75 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. The National Hurricane Center Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model predicted that the maximum water depth at the coast reached about 5 - 6 feet above ground level (Figure 3.) A storm surge of 1 - 2 feet was predicted by SLOSH for the Brownsville, Texas region. A storm surge of about 2 feet was observed in South Texas at the South Padre Island Coast Guard Station and Port Isabel.


Figure 4. Hurricane Alex's Maximum Water Depth (storm tide minus the elevation of the land it is passing over) computed using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. The maximum surge occurred to the right of where Alex's core made landfall, over a sparsely populated marshy area. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of five feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is ten feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. For more information on storm surge, consult our detailed storm surge pages.

Alex in historical context
Alex is the first June hurricane since Hurricane Allison of 1995. There have been only eleven hurricanes in May or June since 1945; only four of these were major Category 3 or higher storms.

Alex's bizarre behavior
Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest run of the NOGAPS model predicts the formation of a tropical depression the Western Caribbean on Tuesday. None of the other models is showing tropical development worthy of concern over the coming seven days.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Alex is continuing to generate very rough conditions over the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, with 5 - 9 foot waves and 3 - 4 foot swells. The wind and seas will gradually subside today, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents induced by Alex's strong winds will push oil to many protected bays and estuaries that haven't seen oil yet. The latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana show oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Winds will decrease to 5 - 15 knots Friday through Tuesday but remain mostly out of the southeast, keeping the pressure on the regions of coast in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi that are seeing oil hit their shores this week.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning. Dr. Rob Carver plans on summarizing Alex in his blog later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex

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Link..GEM model shows three lows... One small low N.E. Gulf... One large low moving into Nicaragua... One large low S.E. of Bermuda....There is a fourth low off the East coast of FL.
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Quoting BermudaHigh:
Teddy, is the Nam, reliable?


NAM is good for track and ect, but not for genesis.. atleast not by itself. However we have strong model support that something is going to pop up.. so that adds to credibility.
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Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
tkeith, did you enjoy the video?
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Quoting BermudaHigh:
Teddy, is the Nam, reliable?
The NAM is reliable on tracking moisture and pretty decent at track. But when it comes to the genesis of a tropical cyclone the NAM is very "ehhhh".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You can try the CIMSS Archive, they might have what you are looking for.
Thanks!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Alex #2 coming????

Like was said, June 24.

But, dang, that was a pretty good forecast!
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Ohh Man I don't like the O-DOOM things!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It would be a slow developing system, just like Alex. I'm not sure this blog can handle another one like that so soon.
Lol, this blog probably couldn't.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
906. Patrap 9:15 PM GMT on July 01, 2010
The Rainbow GOM Image Looks Kinda Like a Curtain

..hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


hahahahahaha!
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Looks like an active July is ahead
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Quoting ElConando:


What type of curtain Mr. bud sir patrap sir????

A shower curtain? A stage curtain? A window curtain?? The Iron curtain??? The steel curtain???? or a shower curtain?????



Fla. curtain-O-DOOM
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I hope not.I don't belive in that stuff.I've got a mission to accomplish.


Me neither, but you said it could be like a Yucatan year.
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 803
Serious Rain Makers moving slowly through CFL.

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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
okay the experts on here said that due to dry air out in the atlantic in 2005 waves didn't develop until they got to the carribean.I said I see favorable conditions out in the atlantic but dry air is a problom.Hurricanes101 qouted me and said that the waves would not develope until they got to more favorable conditions in the carribean.
Oh ok I see. Yes they're right, 2005 had lots of SAL in the MDR and if you note most of the systems in 2005 didn't intensify much in the Atlantic but rather in the Caribbean or GOM (Katrina, Wilma, Rita, etc...). But 2010 will likely be different due to multiple things 2005 didn't have in place.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting Patrap:
The Rainbow GOM Image Looks Kinda Like a Curtain

..hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


What type of curtain Mr. bud sir patrap sir????

A shower curtain? A stage curtain? A window curtain?? The Iron curtain??? The steel curtain???? or a shower curtain?????
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I don't belive in that stuff.I've got a mission to accomplish.


,So did the HAL 9000
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I hear ya Pat. And your welcome tkeith.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looking at the NAM more closely it looks like the wave by 60W is the one it is developing. With so much buildup of heat in the Caribbean, plus the monsoonal trough, we could potentially see another large system.


Uhmm i see the clouds at 60w at picture meteosat airmass and looks very impresive. There is a wave associated to the clouds?
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Quoting msgambler:
I don't see and little duckies or my little ponies there Pat.


Just look out that it dosent morph in to the Dreaded Number 9, number 9, number 9..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looking at the NAM more closely it looks like the wave by 60W is the one it is developing. With so much buildup of heat in the Caribbean, plus the monsoonal trough, we could potentially see another large system.


It would be a slow developing system, just like Alex. I'm not sure this blog can handle another one like that so soon.
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Quoting TankHead93:
Is anyone here in possession of pictures of invests and disturbances that became tropical depressions or more from the 2005 Hurricane Season?


You can try the CIMSS Archive, they might have what you are looking for.
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If you put this in front of me and said draw in isobars based solely on wind direction and velocity using only the marine observations, I'd put a "L ?" south of Pensacola...
(a weak, questionable low, but a low, nonetheless)

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Thanks msgambler !!
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I really miss this site......it was great for Satelitte loops....http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like we'll see the system in the Gulf or Caribbean by the 7th. I'd say we'll have something to track by next Tuesday or so.
It could be a strong system too. Really warm water for it to feed on.
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Quoting Patrap:
The Rainbow GOM Image Looks Kinda Like a Curtain
I don't see and little duckies or my little ponies there Pat.
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Quoting Patrap:
Reminds me of a caterpillar.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
The area in the SW Caribbean that the NAM shows developing actually looks like another system coming out of the monsoonal trof, similar to Alex.
Looking at the NAM more closely it looks like the wave by 60W is the one it is developing. With so much buildup of heat in the Caribbean, plus the monsoonal trough, we could potentially see another large system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I think this could be like a yucatan year.


Actually, that would be 2012 (the Mayas).
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 803
The Rainbow GOM Image Looks Kinda Like a Curtain

..hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ALEX INLAND MEXICO OVER MEXICO
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION INTO FRI MORNING. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI AND
LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.




Even weak Low is not good up there!
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The area in the SW Caribbean that the NAM shows developing actually looks like another system coming out of the monsoonal trof, similar to Alex.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
You mean like 05. Right now we are in a drought in baltimore.Could use some rain from a tropical system actually.
Like 2005? Please explain.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Hey. Just came back from an all-you-can-eat crow buffet... for saying that Alex's track toward Mexico / Texas was climatologically improbable.
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 803
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Lets try this again........LOL



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Hello,

What happend at Trinidad & Tobago?

There is some associated wave to the clouds?

In the meteosat airmass picture look impressive.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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