Caribbean disturbance strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005

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The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean sea, southwest of Jamaica, is now strengthening. The amount of deep convection has increased considerably since this morning, and this system now appears well on its way to becoming Tropical Depression 19 by tomorrow. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area Thursday morning at 8 am EDT.

Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days. Upper level outflow channels have opened to the northeast and southwest, and a small upper-level anticyclone is over the system, helping ventilate the air pushed to the upper atmosphere by the strong updrafts in the storm's deep convection.

The disturbance is moving at about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. None of the computer forecast models develop the system, so their tracks of the disturbance are dubious. The GFS model takes the disturbance across western Cuba on Saturday. The BAMM model takes the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems more reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Early run of the BAMM model takes the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL model disippates the system immediately.

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Some of the global computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop along this area later this week. There are currently no suspect areas to focus on, though.

Hawaii and Baja
Hawaii is watching Tropical Storm Kenneth, which is expected to pass though the Islands Friday and Saturday. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, but may bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands. Tropical depressions that have passed though the islands in previous years have caused serious flooding problems.

The Baja Peninsula is watching newly-formed Tropical Depression 15E, which may threaten the Baja Peninsula as a tropical storm by Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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327. EllistonVA
2:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I grew up in the Adirondacks and those beautiful mountains are one of the few things I miss about NY.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
326. oriondarkwood
2:31 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
EllistonVA,

I make it to the Adirondacks one day, keep meaning too just never have the time, money or both.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
325. weatherspirit
2:31 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
new blog entry...
324. cgableshurrycanegal
2:30 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
cloudy here from throwback with that wave but not much else happening... nice to see thigns quiet for a few hours ::G::
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
323. Pensacola21
2:29 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Hey Palbeach...

Masters has new blog..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
322. cgableshurrycanegal
2:29 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
hi folks... summer cold got me. or is it a fall cold now? :(
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
321. palmbeacher
2:27 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
HI Pensacola!!!! Good morning
320. EllistonVA
2:17 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
orion - we were up in the Adirondacks last weekend visiting family...I could see my breath when we were sitting around the campfire at night...already too cold for me up there!
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
319. Pensacola21
2:14 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Hello all.... =)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
318. EllistonVA
2:11 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Of course from our radar image I'm figuring this isn't too much to get excited about...

Radar
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
317. EllistonVA
2:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Oh my goodness, it's raining in Virginia...It's not much, my rain gauge hasn't even clicked yet, but I'll even take a drizzle at this point!
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
316. MysteryMeat
1:57 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
<>

Ooooh. Ice burn on me.

Why is a self-proclaimed college student typing like a drunk monkey? Beats me.
Member Since: September 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 260
315. oriondarkwood
1:54 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
icebear7

To answer your number 4 question. No its unladened.

Also fall make its presence know with a big ole steel boot today. Winds up to 50mph, temp has dropped 10 degrees since daylight.. cold rain..
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
314. icebear7
1:50 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
1. cold, hopefully VERY snowy
2. its seasonal, so at least till January unless they really like me and someone else decides to leave
3. cinnamon raisin
4. is he gripping the coconut by the husk?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
313. oriondarkwood
1:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Mandy,

No problem
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
312. MandyTX
1:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Thanks Orion!
311. palmbeacher
1:36 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Thats good news. I am wishing you luck!
310. oriondarkwood
1:35 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Mandy,

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/statement.asp?product=NOUS42

Hurricane Recon Flight Plans
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
309. oriondarkwood
1:34 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
palmbeacher,

No problem, its going fairly well had a interview (2nd of 3, ie they cull people at every phase:

1st interview was over the phone
2nd interview was with thier IT people and Account Managers
3th interview (which I have yet to have, but was told in the 2nd interview I was a very strong candiate for) will be with the owners )

I got a interview today with another company, and I should be hearing back from a few other companies in a few days.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
308. palmbeacher
1:32 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Sorry Mandy, I have no idea.
307. MandyTX
1:30 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
What time does the recon fly out today?
306. palmbeacher
1:27 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I know, I am sorry, check your email. Have you had any luck with your search?
305. oriondarkwood
1:23 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
palmbeacher,

Err I think my answer to question 2 would explain that
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
304. palmbeacher
1:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
how have you been Orion?
303. oriondarkwood
1:14 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I guess I should answer my own questions

1. Cold and Harsh, even for a upstate NY winter. More so with natural gas prices sky high (up here we usually have a few people die every winter due to trying to save money or heat with kerosonse heaters indoors)

2. Yea my job ends Oct 31st (hopefully I will get another one before then)

3. What every is within reach and already open

4. What do you mean? An African or European swallow?
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
302. palmbeacher
1:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
1. Warm
2. no
3. whole wheat
4. What?
301. palmbeacher
1:04 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Good morning Orion
300. oriondarkwood
12:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Well since the tropics are tame more off topic questions

1. How do you think the winter in your hood is going to be?

2. Are you afriad that your job will not last the winter?

3. What kind of bread do you eat?

4. What is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow?
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
299. GainesvilleGator
11:55 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Is there a Stan in the house? By the way things look this morning, the NHC will cancel another recon flight. That area of disturbed weather has not looked too good over the last couple of days. With no activity since Rita there are a few more weeks for the Gulf of Mexico to heat up to give us one last blow from the tropics.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
298. StormJunkie
8:45 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Night Doc. That Longwanggonerita was funny as hell though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
297. StormJunkie
8:43 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Alright. REally off to bed, but Stan looks to be due W of Jamica.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
296. DocNDswamp
8:42 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Getting late for me guys...need rest so I can prepare for the wrath of TC LongwanggoneRita later this morning as it slams ashore. LOL. Might repost it for the morning crew...then again I could get an ass-whipping.

Goodnite friends.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
295. leftyy420
8:38 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
alright sj
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
294. StormJunkie
8:36 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Alright I am headed to bed. Catch ya on the flip side.

Can't even geuss what Stan will look like tomorrow.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
293. leftyy420
8:29 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
yeah i just spent the past 10 mins trying to find a good pic of rita to set as my background. no luck. so sticking with my awsomepic of isabel from 2003.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
292. StormJunkie
8:27 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Man the BAMM has been real slow the past couple of nights. I geuss several systems ahead of Stan.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
291. StormJunkie
8:26 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Yea, looking at the Experimental page you would think it would be hard for that system to go W of that high. The Noaa page may have had a front break that ridge down. Don't want to try and reload it right now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
290. leftyy420
8:18 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
i dfunno sj. i was looking at the experimental page and it only goes out 144 hr
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
289. DocNDswamp
8:14 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
SJ, I'm more confident tonite than last it'll ignite tomorrow and we'll have our TD19 but probably no sooner than 5pm advisory. Futher away from ULL the better...think might be last evening of shearing... after should see consistency w/ LLC. Still see general westward tug at this time.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
288. StormJunkie
8:14 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
I thought that GFS Cape verde looked to get too far N out in the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
287. leftyy420
8:14 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
286. StormJunkie
8:13 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Fox just showed teh ARtic Ice cap in 79 and now. Holy mackeral. If the Gulf stream ever shuts down we are screwed. A frozen E coast.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
285. leftyy420
8:12 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
no i am using ther nasa ir imagery and i am loking at the low clouds at the surface . theres a def circulation and it took me about 10 mins of looking to fix it. if i had visible satelite it be easier.

the gfs looks to form a system on the east coast as well but it rins into the ridge and doesn;t get going but it forms a very nice looking cape vered storm that will have to go west and will likley hit the east coast or move into the gulf
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
284. StormJunkie
8:11 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
My bad Doc, I was looking at old Sat images. I agree more so with Lefty's fix. Looks to be above 17.5
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
283. StormJunkie
8:09 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
Kinda what I was thinking Lefty. Not as far north as I thought either, but still north.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
282. StormJunkie
8:08 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
You using microwave for your fix Lefty?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
281. leftyy420
8:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
wish i had visb sat. looks like it did reform north but not as far north as i thought. i put it wsw of jamaica
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
280. StormJunkie
8:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
All of the models build a serious high over the NE in to the SE late in the period. If something should devlop it would be hard to believe that anything but a E coast landfall would be the case.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
279. leftyy420
8:06 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
ithink its 18.1n 80,3 w around there
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
278. StormJunkie
8:05 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
That fix looks close to me Doc, but it is very hard to tell.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16306
277. leftyy420
8:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2005
sj i think the closed ull will spawn a cyclone in those models. something like ophelia and rita and something joe b has been talking about for a couple of days. might see a east coast landfall
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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