Large and intensifying Hurricane Alex bears down on northeastern Mexico, South Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hurricane Alex continues to intensify as it slowly bears down on the coast of northeastern Mexico. Brownsville long-range radar shows the spiral bands of Alex, which has dumped heavy rains of up to four inches in northeastern Mexico and near Brownsville, according to satellite estimates of rainfall. The Brownsville airport received 0.78" of rain in the hour ending at 8am CDT, and 0.61" in the hour ending at 9am CDT. Floods from Alex have already killed ten people--six in Nicaragua, and two each in El Salvador and Guatemala.


Figure 1. Snapshot of the Brownsville long-range radar showing Hurricane Alex approaching the coast.

The 7:12am CDT eye penetration of the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 959 mb, a modest 2 mb drop from the reading four hours previous to that. They noted a very tiny eye, ten miles in diameter, with a gap in the northwest side. Tiny eyes like this tend to be unstable, and in the 9:05am CDT eye penetration, the Hurricane Hunters found that the inner eyewall had collapsed, and the pressure had risen 2 mb, to 961 mb. A new, much larger eye will form today as the day progresses. During these "eyewall replacement cycles", a hurricane will typically weaken a few millibars , and the strongest winds will spread out over a larger area as the hurricane conserves angular momentum. Thus, the hurricane still has about the same amount of destructive power, it is just spread out over a larger area. This tends to increase the hurricane's storm surge, but lessens the wind damage, since the extreme winds of the inner eyewall are no longer present. Satellite loops show a large, well-organized storm with increasing amounts of low-level spiral bands forming, and improving upper-level outflow. Data from last night's flight of the NOAA jet showed an unusually moist atmosphere surrounds Alex, so dry air is no longer a problem for it. It's a good thing Alex has less than a day before making landfall, or else is would be a large and very powerful major hurricane.


Figure 2. Visible light image of Tropical Storm Alex taken at 19:35 UTC (2:35 pm CDT) on June 29, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Alex was a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Storm Surge
Traditionally, a storm's ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Scale--the familiar Category 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 rankings we always talk about--have also been used to quantify storm surge threat. However, large, weaker storms that cover a huge area of the Gulf of Mexico, like Alex, can generate a larger storm surge than a smaller but more intense hurricane with a higher Saffir-Simpson rating. Thus, the National Hurricane Center has formally discontinued use of the Saffir-Simpson scale to characterize storm surge, and is studying the possibility of issuing separate Storm Surge Warnings a few years from now. These would be in addition to their traditional Hurricane Warnings. To give us a better idea of a storm's surge potential, Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division has developed the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale to rank storms. The scale ranges from 0 to 6, and a parallel wind damage scale that runs from 0 to 6 is also generated. Alex had an Integrated Kinetic Energy of 2.6 on the 0 to 6 scale at 1:30pm CDT yesterday, and its destructive potential rating for winds was just 1.2. Thus, Alex's surge ranked alomst one-and-a-half categories higher in destructive potential than its wind. These numbers have probably increased by a full category since yesterday afternoon. NHC is giving a 40% - 60% chance of a storm surge of at least 3 feet affecting the Brownsville area, and 10% - 30% chance the surge will exceed 5 feet. In theory, a Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph can bring a storm surge of up to 8 - 9 feet to the South Texas and northern Mexican coast.

Other Impacts
Alex is bringing bands of heavy rain to the coasts of Texas and Mexico, as seen on the Brownsville, Texas radar. Hurricane local statements with projections for how Alex will affect the coast are now being issued by the National Weather Service in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Flooding damage from the expected 6 - 12 inches of rain from Alex will be the main concern. Wind damage is a lesser concern, since the core of Alex is making landfall in a swampy, sparsely populated region of Mexico. The combined wind, surge, and flooding damage from Alex may be similar to 2008's Hurricane Dolly, which hit near Brownsville. Dolly was a Category 2 hurricane offshore that weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds when it made landfall, and did about $1 billion in damage. Dolly also generated two weak EF-0 tornadoes, and Alex is capable of generating a few tornadoes as well, according to the latest discussion from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The atmosphere is moderately unstable, there is plenty of moisture, and wind shear at low levels has been increasing this morning. The greatest threat for tornadoes will occur late this afternoon, on the right side of where the storm makes landfall.

Alex in historical context
Alex is the first June hurricane since Hurricane Allison of 1995. Allison briefly became a minimal 75 mph hurricane before weakening and hitting the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm. Alex is the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Bonnie of 1986, which had 85 mph winds. Bonnie was the first hurricane I flew into as a member of the Hurricane Hunters. Bonnie made landfall along the upper Texas coast, and caused less than $20 million in damage. If Alex strengthens to 90 mph winds, it will be the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966, which had 125 mph winds as it skirted the Florida Keys. There have been only ten hurricanes in May or June since 1945; only four of these were major Category 3 or higher storms.

Track forecast for Alex
All of the models take Alex to the west or west-northwest into northern Mexico by early Thursday morning. However, the steering currents are fairly weak, and Alex could stall and move erratically at times today. I don't anticipate that this weakness in the steering currents will allow Alex to move northward and make landfall in Texas. After landfall, the ridge of high pressure forcing Alex westward should remain in place and strengthen, keeping Alex's remnants over northern Mexico for several days.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is over a region of ocean with moderately high total ocean heat content . Wind shear has fallen to a low 5 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to remain in the low range, below 10 knots, through landfall. The combination of low wind shear, moderately high ocean heat content, and plenty of moisture should allow Alex to continue to intensify today. Alex's pressure is already characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, but the storm is so large that it is taking time for the winds to catch up to the pressure falls. It is unlikely that Alex's winds will be at Category 3 strength at landfall, since the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, and does not have time to build a tight inner eyewall with strong winds before landfall. A Category 2 storm at landfall looks more likely.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest run of the NOGAPS model predicts the formation of a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean on Monday. None of the other models is showing anything brewing over the coming seven days.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Alex is generating very rough conditions over the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, with 6 - 8 foot waves and 3 - 4 foot swells. Strong southeast to south winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents will push oil to many protected bays and estuaries that haven't seen oil yet. In addition, the 1 - 2 foot storm surge Alex is generating along the Louisiana coast will act to push oil deep into some low-lying marshlands. While this oil will be diluted some by the wave action, the impact of the oil and accompanying toxic dispersants on the marshlands is of concern. The latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana show oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Winds will decrease to 10 - 15 knots Friday through Monday but remain out of the southeast, keeping the pressure on the regions of coast in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi that are seeing oil hit their shores this week.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
Either Rob Carver or myself will do an update late this afternoon or this evening.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Flight deck view from a WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft
Hurricane Alex

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Would you look at that, alex sure does have a long tail!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/rb-l.jpg
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watchingnva it's never over until the storm is completely inland and i will tell you alex will stall once again ..this is a huge storm and the interaction with land and the mountains in mexico are going to keep alex off shore..thaat's my prediction and im sticking to it..not giving and inch..
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...Patrap, that video was unbelievable!!! when they say evacuate....they should require everyone to watch this video!!
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990: And you quoted it for all to see. Lovely.
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Life is about choices.

I made a bad one in Aug 2005 and got Lucky.

But I saw many,..sadly who made the same decision,and werent able to say so.

Only 1 mile east of me.

Ill never make that bad decision again.

Ive learned hard.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Floodman:


Prove to people that Hurricanes are nothing to be feared; that evacuation is unnecessary and that storm surge is an over-used phrase...


Get his own reality show. But those will be the unintended consequences.
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Sorry - but I just lost all respect for Oz when I watched him throw his cigarette butt out the window. Silly me huh?!
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http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather-webcam

cyclone Oz - live

fortunately, the snake got away.
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Quoting DrakoenG:

:)

Well by any chance, do you consider dating, at least cybredating, a possbily younger (i dont know how old you are) Mexican guy from South florida?


I'm sorry, I think I have stumbled on the wrong website...
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting muddertracker:
Good afternoon everyone. Did I wake up in August?



I'd take this for August.
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Quoting Floodman:


"Committed" is the word you're looking for


Committable?
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Quoting RuBRNded:


A few companies make a potable water (100 gal) bladder that fits in a bathtub and has a squeeze pump. It works great.


It is items like this that would be really helpful to those of us who have space issues and can't store jugs of water for 6 months...is there anyway WU or someone who maintains a blog could put together useful information like this with links to retailers that carry them for people?
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Oz just likes chasing storms and wants to share it with however is interested.Link
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985. JRRP
bonnie and colin ??
Link
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Quoting JamesSA:

I remember a more recent one (Gilbert?) killing hundreds of people who were living in an arroyo because nobody thought to tell them that a storm was coming.

Warning people like them now would be a thoughtful gesture. I hope someone is doing that, because I doubt many of them have TV's and smartphones.
Little doubt that the Mexican government much more efficient at warning the populace than in earlier times, but then again it is difficult to reach so many people. The population of Monterrey in 1950 was around 300,000, and in 1909 it must have been much smaller.
Although the center of the city is basically a flash-flood zone, there is plenty of high ground nearby according to the topo maps, so it is just a matter of getting the word spread in time, without causing needless panic. That is always a high-wire balancing act that even the NHC must walk.
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000
WWUS64 KBRO 301546
WCNBRO

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 430
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1046 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

TXC047-061-215-261-489-010100-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.A.0430.100630T1546Z-100701T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 430 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

BROOKS CAMERON HIDALGO
KENEDY WILLACY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BROWNSVILLE...EDINBURG...
FALFURRIAS...HARLINGEN...MCALLEN...MISSION...PHARR...
RAYMONDVILLE...SARITA AND WESLACO.

$$

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-010100-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.A.0430.100630T1546Z-100701T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 430 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM

DISCUSSION: OUTER FEEDER BANDS FROM APPROACHING HURRICANE ALEX
MAY BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL...QUICK MOVING...BUT
POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE TORNADO
WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. TORNADOES IN TROPICAL RAIN BANDS ARE OFTEN
HIDDEN...SO PEOPLE SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO SEEK VISUAL CONFIRMATION
ONCE THE WARNING IS ISSUED...GO TO THE SAFEST PLACE POSSIBLE!


$$

52/BSG
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hot tower



uhoh.
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Take a look at the NHC track, do to the northern position of Alex, kinda funny looking.
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Quoting watchingnva:


now tf, you know that canes do not go in a straight line...and to think its going to go 12 hours in the exact same heading with outside forces acting upon it, is crazy...i expect a shift from nw back to wnw in the next 3-6 hours and a landfall 50-75 miles south of the border...


Alex has been confusing me a bit, first NNW then WNW,west, NW, it's just very confusing.
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It's moving faster, but still NW. That would make landfall much earlier than what I just calculated.

The new speed puts landfall in 15 hours.
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Hot tower

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definitely going back wnw now...maybe between wnw and nw...but the bottom line, its not coming to texas...maybe 75-100 miles south if it stays closer to this heading...
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Thanks for the Surge Map Pat! It just reminds me to call Haz Mit line again about my home elevation. Still waiting and keeping my crossed this season.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Thanks for the Surge Map Pat! It just reminds me to call Haz Mit line again about my home elevation. Still waiting and keeping my crossed this season.
oops..fingers that is!
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Seem
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
869. connie1976 5:34 PM GMT on June 30, 2010
...hey all...

Do you get your hurricane supplies when hurricane season starts or when one threatens your area?

What do you usually get
Get a lot of can goods and bottled water. You can go to any of your local TV websites and they have all the info for you there.

But don't sk
We get a months supply of food here in the Virgin islands in June. mostly cases of canned stuff figuring 2 cans per person per day. So 60 cans per person. Or 5 cases of 12 of some stuff
Quoting guygee:


Depending on the future track of Alex one of the most dangerous situations may be developing in Monterrey MX. Monterrey is the third most populous city in Mexico with well over 1 million residents. It sits at the foothills of the Sierra Madre Oriental that tower up to a mile high above the city. The Santa Catarina River—dry most of the year—bisects the city.

The great 1909 Monterrey hurricane made its final landfall in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas on August 27 of that year, then proceeded to cause inland flash flooding that killed over 4000 in Mexico. In Monterrey the Santa Catarina River rose well over its banks, destroying hundreds of homes and leaving an estimated 20,000 people homeless.

I did not know the geography... Looks like the same situation as those mountians wring the water out of Alex. I fear this is going to be very bad.
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088
WFUS54 KBRO 301749
TORBRO
TXC247-427-301815-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0010.100630T1749Z-100630T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
NORTHERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGUA NUEVA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 45
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
AGUA NUEVA.
CUEVITAS.
VIBORAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
970. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


He wanted to take all of his equipment and walk over the border to Mexico. I'd say he's either crazy or dedicated....I'll go with both.


LOL...sounds like it!
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Quoting sarahjola:
had heavy rain for a few here now its kinda light but steady. even had a few gusty winds. to my surprise lightening just a little. early this morning alex took a jog the the north, and it was admitted that the models didn't pick up on the weakness. is it at all possible that alex will ride the coast, and what is the steering pattern right now? thanks in advance:)
The lack of lightning is due partly to all of the moisture available. Updrafts up to freezing level aren't happening before the rain drops get too big and fall out. That and freezing level is a bit higher than usual in this tropical airmass.

Takes very vigorous convection for lightning in this type of airmass...more so than we are used to.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


He wanted to take all of his equipment and walk over the border to Mexico. I'd say he's either crazy or dedicated....I'll go with both.


"Committed" is the word you're looking for
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Good afternoon everyone. Did I wake up in August?
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Quoting Floodman:


Prove to people that Hurricanes are nothing to be feared; that evacuation is unnecessary and that storm surge is an over-used phrase...


He's showing that hurricanes can be a ton of fun, isn't he?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Thanks for that video Patrap. I've yet to be faced with the choice to evacuate here in Panama City. That video will be in the front of my mind if I ever do.
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927:

Back in winter, I think the prediction was for a high risk of storm landfalls over the Carolinas and Florida.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Thanks for the Surge Map Pat! It just reminds me to call Haz Mit line again about my home elevation. Still waiting and keeping my crossed this season.
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1:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 30
Location: 24.4°N 96.2°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
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961. IKE
1:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 30
Location: 24.4°N 96.2°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
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Up to 85mph.
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A good amount of dryer air is in the South Side of the Circ just Outside the Eyewall..

Thats gonna have a role to Play this afternoon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
000
WTNT31 KNHC 301750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.
ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12
MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE
BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Landfall in about 6 hrs, 40 miles S. of Brownsville. Basically just projecting off of radar motion for the last 6 hrs.
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Quoting Patrap:
That would make me nervous not knowing how your home is doing while you are gone... :(

Staying is always a Personal Option.

Though NOT recommended if possible.






That video puts my heart in my throat, Pat. In particular, the pleading tone of her voice when she's praying for it to stop. I remember hearing the calls during Ivan of people whose homes were flooding and being torn apart. Calls from attics and people who have just a few inches of breathing room left...it's scary to hear the tone that comes out.
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Quoting duajones78413:
what is it that oz is trying to do?


Prove to people that Hurricanes are nothing to be feared; that evacuation is unnecessary and that storm surge is an over-used phrase...
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Thanks for update Dr.M and all others who contribute to this blog. Your input is much appreciated.

Everyone in the path of the hurricane stay safe. The bed is calling. Have to prepare for graveyard shift.Good night:)
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Quoting IKE:


WTH? He crazy?


He wanted to take all of his equipment and walk over the border to Mexico. I'd say he's either crazy or dedicated....I'll go with both.
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Quoting Kristina40:
For anyone that lives in a Hurricane prone area you should always have the bare necessities on hand. Jugs of water and canned food that can be eaten without cooking are basic. They last for a very long time so buying them isn't a waste. Same goes for candles and batteries and at least one operable weather radio.


A few companies make a potable water (100 gal) bladder that fits in a bathtub and has a squeeze pump. It works great.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I don't think Texas got that memo. But inland warnings are essential. I'm glad about the change and that everyone is talking about inland dangers. One of the only videos during Rita shows a young couple rescued from their mobile home at the last second by fire fighters and news crew. You can see the trailer park being shredded as they're making their get away. That was in Lake Charles, La. Not on the coast. Like that fireman said, If they tell you to leave LEAVE!! He almost didn't see the couple.


I live on the west side of Houston, so we did get that message. :) For Rita in the inland hurricane wind warnings went several counties back from the coast. Can't remember how far for Ike but Dallas was in a TS wind watch, which is amazing at ~300 miles from the coast!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oz has 293 viewers!


I posted his site on my Facebook. I have over 1,000 friends so hopefully many of them will log on.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Oz has 293 viewers!

What are we talking about?
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Quoting IKE:


landfall within hours. It's moving on in.


Come Landfall..half the Storm is Inland.

The Impacts have under way for a few Hours now.


Track the Impacts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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