Large and intensifying Hurricane Alex bears down on northeastern Mexico, South Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hurricane Alex continues to intensify as it slowly bears down on the coast of northeastern Mexico. Brownsville long-range radar shows the spiral bands of Alex, which has dumped heavy rains of up to four inches in northeastern Mexico and near Brownsville, according to satellite estimates of rainfall. The Brownsville airport received 0.78" of rain in the hour ending at 8am CDT, and 0.61" in the hour ending at 9am CDT. Floods from Alex have already killed ten people--six in Nicaragua, and two each in El Salvador and Guatemala.


Figure 1. Snapshot of the Brownsville long-range radar showing Hurricane Alex approaching the coast.

The 7:12am CDT eye penetration of the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 959 mb, a modest 2 mb drop from the reading four hours previous to that. They noted a very tiny eye, ten miles in diameter, with a gap in the northwest side. Tiny eyes like this tend to be unstable, and in the 9:05am CDT eye penetration, the Hurricane Hunters found that the inner eyewall had collapsed, and the pressure had risen 2 mb, to 961 mb. A new, much larger eye will form today as the day progresses. During these "eyewall replacement cycles", a hurricane will typically weaken a few millibars , and the strongest winds will spread out over a larger area as the hurricane conserves angular momentum. Thus, the hurricane still has about the same amount of destructive power, it is just spread out over a larger area. This tends to increase the hurricane's storm surge, but lessens the wind damage, since the extreme winds of the inner eyewall are no longer present. Satellite loops show a large, well-organized storm with increasing amounts of low-level spiral bands forming, and improving upper-level outflow. Data from last night's flight of the NOAA jet showed an unusually moist atmosphere surrounds Alex, so dry air is no longer a problem for it. It's a good thing Alex has less than a day before making landfall, or else is would be a large and very powerful major hurricane.


Figure 2. Visible light image of Tropical Storm Alex taken at 19:35 UTC (2:35 pm CDT) on June 29, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Alex was a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Storm Surge
Traditionally, a storm's ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Scale--the familiar Category 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 rankings we always talk about--have also been used to quantify storm surge threat. However, large, weaker storms that cover a huge area of the Gulf of Mexico, like Alex, can generate a larger storm surge than a smaller but more intense hurricane with a higher Saffir-Simpson rating. Thus, the National Hurricane Center has formally discontinued use of the Saffir-Simpson scale to characterize storm surge, and is studying the possibility of issuing separate Storm Surge Warnings a few years from now. These would be in addition to their traditional Hurricane Warnings. To give us a better idea of a storm's surge potential, Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division has developed the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale to rank storms. The scale ranges from 0 to 6, and a parallel wind damage scale that runs from 0 to 6 is also generated. Alex had an Integrated Kinetic Energy of 2.6 on the 0 to 6 scale at 1:30pm CDT yesterday, and its destructive potential rating for winds was just 1.2. Thus, Alex's surge ranked alomst one-and-a-half categories higher in destructive potential than its wind. These numbers have probably increased by a full category since yesterday afternoon. NHC is giving a 40% - 60% chance of a storm surge of at least 3 feet affecting the Brownsville area, and 10% - 30% chance the surge will exceed 5 feet. In theory, a Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph can bring a storm surge of up to 8 - 9 feet to the South Texas and northern Mexican coast.

Other Impacts
Alex is bringing bands of heavy rain to the coasts of Texas and Mexico, as seen on the Brownsville, Texas radar. Hurricane local statements with projections for how Alex will affect the coast are now being issued by the National Weather Service in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Flooding damage from the expected 6 - 12 inches of rain from Alex will be the main concern. Wind damage is a lesser concern, since the core of Alex is making landfall in a swampy, sparsely populated region of Mexico. The combined wind, surge, and flooding damage from Alex may be similar to 2008's Hurricane Dolly, which hit near Brownsville. Dolly was a Category 2 hurricane offshore that weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds when it made landfall, and did about $1 billion in damage. Dolly also generated two weak EF-0 tornadoes, and Alex is capable of generating a few tornadoes as well, according to the latest discussion from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The atmosphere is moderately unstable, there is plenty of moisture, and wind shear at low levels has been increasing this morning. The greatest threat for tornadoes will occur late this afternoon, on the right side of where the storm makes landfall.

Alex in historical context
Alex is the first June hurricane since Hurricane Allison of 1995. Allison briefly became a minimal 75 mph hurricane before weakening and hitting the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm. Alex is the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Bonnie of 1986, which had 85 mph winds. Bonnie was the first hurricane I flew into as a member of the Hurricane Hunters. Bonnie made landfall along the upper Texas coast, and caused less than $20 million in damage. If Alex strengthens to 90 mph winds, it will be the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966, which had 125 mph winds as it skirted the Florida Keys. There have been only ten hurricanes in May or June since 1945; only four of these were major Category 3 or higher storms.

Track forecast for Alex
All of the models take Alex to the west or west-northwest into northern Mexico by early Thursday morning. However, the steering currents are fairly weak, and Alex could stall and move erratically at times today. I don't anticipate that this weakness in the steering currents will allow Alex to move northward and make landfall in Texas. After landfall, the ridge of high pressure forcing Alex westward should remain in place and strengthen, keeping Alex's remnants over northern Mexico for several days.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is over a region of ocean with moderately high total ocean heat content . Wind shear has fallen to a low 5 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to remain in the low range, below 10 knots, through landfall. The combination of low wind shear, moderately high ocean heat content, and plenty of moisture should allow Alex to continue to intensify today. Alex's pressure is already characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, but the storm is so large that it is taking time for the winds to catch up to the pressure falls. It is unlikely that Alex's winds will be at Category 3 strength at landfall, since the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, and does not have time to build a tight inner eyewall with strong winds before landfall. A Category 2 storm at landfall looks more likely.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest run of the NOGAPS model predicts the formation of a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean on Monday. None of the other models is showing anything brewing over the coming seven days.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Alex is generating very rough conditions over the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, with 6 - 8 foot waves and 3 - 4 foot swells. Strong southeast to south winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents will push oil to many protected bays and estuaries that haven't seen oil yet. In addition, the 1 - 2 foot storm surge Alex is generating along the Louisiana coast will act to push oil deep into some low-lying marshlands. While this oil will be diluted some by the wave action, the impact of the oil and accompanying toxic dispersants on the marshlands is of concern. The latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana show oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Winds will decrease to 10 - 15 knots Friday through Monday but remain out of the southeast, keeping the pressure on the regions of coast in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi that are seeing oil hit their shores this week.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
Either Rob Carver or myself will do an update late this afternoon or this evening.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Flight deck view from a WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft
Hurricane Alex

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956mb found by recon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1 month ago it was May 30th not even hurricane season and who would of thought in one months time we'd be having a landfalling cane on the Gulf...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
The Rio Grande is on it's way up, but it has a long way yet before it reaches flood stage.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow




Pinwheel eye??
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RECON finds a 956mb pressure and 82 kt surface winds.
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1793. IKE
As good as it's ever looked. Bad timing.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Watch out for a crazy Ivan! Just sayin
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1791. angiest
For those who want an on-topic comedic diversion:

http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid62879501001?bctid=26525275001
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting sailingallover:

THANKS!!!
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Five tornado reports so far:



Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1510 PORT ISABEL CAMERON TX 2607 9722 PUBLIC REPORTS FENCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STREET AND TREES DOWN BEHIND CONVENIENCE STORE AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 100 AND MESSINA STREET IN PORT ISABEL. (BRO)
1527 2 W BROWNSVILLE CAMERON TX 2593 9751 BROWNSVILLE POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED DAMAGE ON WEST SIDE OF THE CITY AT 6851 MILITARY HIGHWAY. MOBILE HOME TURNED OVER, TREE DAMAGE AND PIPE DAMAGE TO A WATERMILL EXP (BRO)
1716 5 N RAYMONDVILLE WILLACY TX 2655 9778 TEXAS MILITARY FORCES REPORTED TORNADO ON GROUND FIVE MILES NORTH OF RAYMONDVILLE. (BRO)
1905 12 ENE SOUTH TEXAS NUCL MATAGORDA TX 2886 9586 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEEING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF WADSWORTH. THE TORNADO CAUSED MINIMAL DAMAGE IN A PASTURE. (HGX)
2010 5 N BAYSIDE REFUGIO TX 2815 9724 ARANSAS COUNTY RECEIVED PUBLIC REPORTS OF A TORNADO NEAR BAYSIDE (CRP)


Six (although this one is in Harris County - Houston):


06/30/2010 0205 PM

6 miles E of Wadsworth, Harris County.

Tornado, reported by trained spotter.

Trained spotter reported seeing a tornado 6 miles east of Wadsworth. The tornado caused minimal damage in a pasture.
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1789. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting VampyreGTX:
Looks virtually due west now, lastest center plot from radar appears to be 24.41 and 96.91 versus my prior plot of 24.4 and 96.67. At current speed, it sould have landfal in about 3 hours, or 7 central time. Still calling for landfall somewhere around 24.6/97.71. It should be a low cat 2 by landfall with the 3 hours to go still.



Adding to this, looks like it will be making landfall somewhere along the coast about 20 miles east of San Fernando, Mexico 'IF' the current trend hold true. Does anyone know what that area and barrier islands there are like? Population, construction, etc.?
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Quoting BobinTampa:
you'd think a lawyer wouldn't say something so definitive with no facts to back it up.


And I am in the industry and I'm tellin you that flood prgram is just fine...now, about those facts: where are yours?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
So we expecting to have the next two new storm form next week... one around the same place Alex from and the other around the Florida Keys..Can someone check the new models... What is your take on this Storm W?Possible two system next week and maybe 3-5 storms in July?
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Quoting Floodman:


Credit, my dear, where credit is due!

dude i got banned from oz's site
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2010 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 24:25:53 N Lon : 96:49:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.1mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That eyewall looks inevitably impressive. Alex is definitely strengthening steadily and might become a category 2 hurricane at 8PM.


Actully-at 7:00 pm,they are now issuing 2 Intermeadiate advisories +1 full advisory every six hours.
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Oz is back out of the capsule. Sounds like he's dying.
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Wow


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
1779. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That eyewall looks inevitably impressive. Alex is definitely strengthening steadily and might become a category 2 hurricane at 8PM.


It definitely looks a lot better than it did an hour or so ago.

It also looks to be weebling a little to the south.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1778. 7544
any local live coverage from texas on the storm anyone have alink tia
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BRO issues Tornado Warning for Cameron, Willacy [TX] till 4:45 PM CDT ...* AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO ABOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE OF CAMERON COUNTY ABOUT 23 MILES EAST OF HARLINGEN VALLEY AIRPORT...MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


awhh stop now, your making me blush!


Credit, my dear, where credit is due!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1773. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
Dontcha just Lub all the 6 month Hype and postings about the first cane and all.

Check out the Posts for a Land falling Hurricane last Hour.

Not too many.


pffft.



wunderground went completely south for me for awhile. Couldnt get any pages to load. Dunno if anyone else was having a similar issue.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nah, its because rather watch the storm with radar loops/satellite loops, and tv footage when they come to landfall, less on blog BSing


actually that makes sense lol
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Quoting Patrap:
\

O I hope so..
Now Pat. I know that you know what happens when you overstir the gumbo pot.
Wait. I think I confuzed myself....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Five tornado reports so far:



Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1510 PORT ISABEL CAMERON TX 2607 9722 PUBLIC REPORTS FENCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STREET AND TREES DOWN BEHIND CONVENIENCE STORE AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 100 AND MESSINA STREET IN PORT ISABEL. (BRO)
1527 2 W BROWNSVILLE CAMERON TX 2593 9751 BROWNSVILLE POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED DAMAGE ON WEST SIDE OF THE CITY AT 6851 MILITARY HIGHWAY. MOBILE HOME TURNED OVER, TREE DAMAGE AND PIPE DAMAGE TO A WATERMILL EXP (BRO)
1716 5 N RAYMONDVILLE WILLACY TX 2655 9778 TEXAS MILITARY FORCES REPORTED TORNADO ON GROUND FIVE MILES NORTH OF RAYMONDVILLE. (BRO)
1905 12 ENE SOUTH TEXAS NUCL MATAGORDA TX 2886 9586 TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEEING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF WADSWORTH. THE TORNADO CAUSED MINIMAL DAMAGE IN A PASTURE. (HGX)
2010 5 N BAYSIDE REFUGIO TX 2815 9724 ARANSAS COUNTY RECEIVED PUBLIC REPORTS OF A TORNADO NEAR BAYSIDE (CRP)
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey Flood, one would assume that out of respect for Dr Masters, who banned Oz from this blog. That people who are on Oz's website watching him... would keep the senseless dribble about him out of this Blog?


if a storm ever comes toward here i am gonna go stand out knee deep in the bay with an umbrella and make someone take pics of me and post it here. I dont have a wind meter but i could hold one of those little personal fans and get a nylon jogging suit from the goodwill. no i am not a HATER i am just poking fun. I am worried about brownsville flood damage and maybe tornadoes! it looks bad for them on radar.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
Nah, its because rather watch the storm with radar loops/satellite loops, and tv footage when they come to landfall, less on blog BSing
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1766. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


they like the guessing game Pat, now that we know where Alex is going, they don't care as much and are looking on to something else



As per the manual..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting Patrap:
.."the blog is da same in a relative way, but yer older..

and shorter of breath and one day closer to the next invest"..

That eyewall looks inevitably impressive. Alex is definitely strengthening steadily and might become a category 2 hurricane at 8PM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1763. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Talk like that Pat and people are gonna accuse you of predicting an invest tomorrow.....lol
\

O I hope so..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
1762. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting Patrap:
.."the blog is da same in a relative way, but yer older..

and shorter of breath and one day closer to the next invest"..


Nice Pink Floyd reference! That eyewall sure looks like it's ramping up and is apparently moving to the WSW...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting Patrap:
.."the blog is da same in a relative way, but yer older..

and shorter of breath and one day closer to the next invest"..

Talk like that Pat and people are gonna accuse you of predicting an invest tomorrow.....lol
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Raising towards the coast at 17mph, the town of Punta de Piedra perhaps about 20miles, north would be the possible land fall. That town is about 40 miles south of the mouth of Rio Grande.
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Quoting twhcracker:


so do you guys think it could strengthen more before landfall? and how long is brownsville gonna have to sit in all that rain.


Absolutely he could strengthen in the 3 to 4 hours before crossing the coastline. The eye has finally closed off and he is wrapping deep convection all the way around it now. I think he will reach Category 2 status before landfall. RECON are about to pass through the northern eyewall again and give us another center fix. I wouldn't be surprised if they find a Category 2 storm.
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Quoting StormW:


Yes...looking at the IR loop, appears he's doing it a tad right now.

Probably a good day or 2...depends on how fast he moves west.


ECMWF stalls him pretty close to the coast, IIRC.
Member Since: June 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
Looks virtually due west now, lastest center plot from radar appears to be 24.41 and 96.91 versus my prior plot of 24.4 and 96.67. At current speed, it sould have landfal in about 3 hours, or 7 central time. Still calling for landfall somewhere around 24.6/97.71. It should be a low cat 2 by landfall with the 3 hours to go still.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
.."the blog is da same in a relative way, but yer older..

and shorter of breath and one day closer to the next invest"..



they like the guessing game Pat, now that we know where Alex is going, they don't care as much and are looking on to something else
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1753. Patrap

483
WFUS54 KBRO 302105
TORBRO
TXC215-489-302130-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0016.100630T2105Z-100630T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HIDALGO COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF LASARA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 45
MPH. THIS IS A SEPARATE TORNADO WARNING TO THE ONE THAT WAS JUST
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR WILLACY AND HIDALGO COUNTIES.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LASARA.
HARGILL.
RED GATE.
FAYSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting BobinTampa:
you'd think a lawyer wouldn't say something so definitive with no facts to back it up.



They are taking renewals. And the program is not going away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Dontcha just Lub all the 6 month Hype and postings about the first cane and all.

Check out the Posts for a Land falling Hurricane last Hour.

Not too many.


pffft.



kind of sad really lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1750. Patrap
.."the blog is da same in a relative way, but yer older..

and shorter of breath and one day closer to the next invest"..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting Floodman:


Spoken like a true amnesiac that has forgotten a little system that came to be known as Humberto


I did not say he couldn't intensify, but he is running out of time in which he can intensify. I remember Humberto.
Member Since: December 4, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 251
Quoting NOLALawyer:


This is complete, unadulterated BS. The program is 100% in existence.


Exactly...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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