Large and intensifying Hurricane Alex bears down on northeastern Mexico, South Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hurricane Alex continues to intensify as it slowly bears down on the coast of northeastern Mexico. Brownsville long-range radar shows the spiral bands of Alex, which has dumped heavy rains of up to four inches in northeastern Mexico and near Brownsville, according to satellite estimates of rainfall. The Brownsville airport received 0.78" of rain in the hour ending at 8am CDT, and 0.61" in the hour ending at 9am CDT. Floods from Alex have already killed ten people--six in Nicaragua, and two each in El Salvador and Guatemala.


Figure 1. Snapshot of the Brownsville long-range radar showing Hurricane Alex approaching the coast.

The 7:12am CDT eye penetration of the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 959 mb, a modest 2 mb drop from the reading four hours previous to that. They noted a very tiny eye, ten miles in diameter, with a gap in the northwest side. Tiny eyes like this tend to be unstable, and in the 9:05am CDT eye penetration, the Hurricane Hunters found that the inner eyewall had collapsed, and the pressure had risen 2 mb, to 961 mb. A new, much larger eye will form today as the day progresses. During these "eyewall replacement cycles", a hurricane will typically weaken a few millibars , and the strongest winds will spread out over a larger area as the hurricane conserves angular momentum. Thus, the hurricane still has about the same amount of destructive power, it is just spread out over a larger area. This tends to increase the hurricane's storm surge, but lessens the wind damage, since the extreme winds of the inner eyewall are no longer present. Satellite loops show a large, well-organized storm with increasing amounts of low-level spiral bands forming, and improving upper-level outflow. Data from last night's flight of the NOAA jet showed an unusually moist atmosphere surrounds Alex, so dry air is no longer a problem for it. It's a good thing Alex has less than a day before making landfall, or else is would be a large and very powerful major hurricane.


Figure 2. Visible light image of Tropical Storm Alex taken at 19:35 UTC (2:35 pm CDT) on June 29, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Alex was a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Storm Surge
Traditionally, a storm's ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Scale--the familiar Category 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 rankings we always talk about--have also been used to quantify storm surge threat. However, large, weaker storms that cover a huge area of the Gulf of Mexico, like Alex, can generate a larger storm surge than a smaller but more intense hurricane with a higher Saffir-Simpson rating. Thus, the National Hurricane Center has formally discontinued use of the Saffir-Simpson scale to characterize storm surge, and is studying the possibility of issuing separate Storm Surge Warnings a few years from now. These would be in addition to their traditional Hurricane Warnings. To give us a better idea of a storm's surge potential, Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division has developed the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale to rank storms. The scale ranges from 0 to 6, and a parallel wind damage scale that runs from 0 to 6 is also generated. Alex had an Integrated Kinetic Energy of 2.6 on the 0 to 6 scale at 1:30pm CDT yesterday, and its destructive potential rating for winds was just 1.2. Thus, Alex's surge ranked alomst one-and-a-half categories higher in destructive potential than its wind. These numbers have probably increased by a full category since yesterday afternoon. NHC is giving a 40% - 60% chance of a storm surge of at least 3 feet affecting the Brownsville area, and 10% - 30% chance the surge will exceed 5 feet. In theory, a Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph can bring a storm surge of up to 8 - 9 feet to the South Texas and northern Mexican coast.

Other Impacts
Alex is bringing bands of heavy rain to the coasts of Texas and Mexico, as seen on the Brownsville, Texas radar. Hurricane local statements with projections for how Alex will affect the coast are now being issued by the National Weather Service in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Flooding damage from the expected 6 - 12 inches of rain from Alex will be the main concern. Wind damage is a lesser concern, since the core of Alex is making landfall in a swampy, sparsely populated region of Mexico. The combined wind, surge, and flooding damage from Alex may be similar to 2008's Hurricane Dolly, which hit near Brownsville. Dolly was a Category 2 hurricane offshore that weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds when it made landfall, and did about $1 billion in damage. Dolly also generated two weak EF-0 tornadoes, and Alex is capable of generating a few tornadoes as well, according to the latest discussion from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The atmosphere is moderately unstable, there is plenty of moisture, and wind shear at low levels has been increasing this morning. The greatest threat for tornadoes will occur late this afternoon, on the right side of where the storm makes landfall.

Alex in historical context
Alex is the first June hurricane since Hurricane Allison of 1995. Allison briefly became a minimal 75 mph hurricane before weakening and hitting the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm. Alex is the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Bonnie of 1986, which had 85 mph winds. Bonnie was the first hurricane I flew into as a member of the Hurricane Hunters. Bonnie made landfall along the upper Texas coast, and caused less than $20 million in damage. If Alex strengthens to 90 mph winds, it will be the strongest June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966, which had 125 mph winds as it skirted the Florida Keys. There have been only ten hurricanes in May or June since 1945; only four of these were major Category 3 or higher storms.

Track forecast for Alex
All of the models take Alex to the west or west-northwest into northern Mexico by early Thursday morning. However, the steering currents are fairly weak, and Alex could stall and move erratically at times today. I don't anticipate that this weakness in the steering currents will allow Alex to move northward and make landfall in Texas. After landfall, the ridge of high pressure forcing Alex westward should remain in place and strengthen, keeping Alex's remnants over northern Mexico for several days.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is over a region of ocean with moderately high total ocean heat content . Wind shear has fallen to a low 5 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to remain in the low range, below 10 knots, through landfall. The combination of low wind shear, moderately high ocean heat content, and plenty of moisture should allow Alex to continue to intensify today. Alex's pressure is already characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, but the storm is so large that it is taking time for the winds to catch up to the pressure falls. It is unlikely that Alex's winds will be at Category 3 strength at landfall, since the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, and does not have time to build a tight inner eyewall with strong winds before landfall. A Category 2 storm at landfall looks more likely.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest run of the NOGAPS model predicts the formation of a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean on Monday. None of the other models is showing anything brewing over the coming seven days.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Alex is generating very rough conditions over the Deepwater Horizon blowout location, with 6 - 8 foot waves and 3 - 4 foot swells. Strong southeast to south winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents will push oil to many protected bays and estuaries that haven't seen oil yet. In addition, the 1 - 2 foot storm surge Alex is generating along the Louisiana coast will act to push oil deep into some low-lying marshlands. While this oil will be diluted some by the wave action, the impact of the oil and accompanying toxic dispersants on the marshlands is of concern. The latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana show oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Winds will decrease to 10 - 15 knots Friday through Monday but remain out of the southeast, keeping the pressure on the regions of coast in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi that are seeing oil hit their shores this week.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next post
Either Rob Carver or myself will do an update late this afternoon or this evening.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Weather inbound to Hurricane Alex.
Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex (LRandyB)
Flight deck view from a WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft
Hurricane Alex

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Quoting Levi32:


Pinhole eye is a very special term reserved for eyewalls 5nm across or less. An eyewall of 10 miles across is pretty common for intense Atlantic hurricanes. Don't overuse the term.
Evening Levi, I have been saying the same thing for 2 days.
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2247. Titoxd
000
WTNT31 KNHC 302257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN A FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION
IN MATAMOROS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...78 KM/HR AND AN
UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHORTLY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Quoting Levi32:


We were all talking about it 6 months ago.


And to think that we all thought the Gulf SSTs would be below normal even now.
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Up to 100mph!

Only 4mbs to go until it beats Audrey!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
100 MPH CAT 2
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2243. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is the last one they did, new one should be in any minute now


I know ,,its for a comparative as requested
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
2242. IKE
...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON...
6:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 30
Location: 24.4°N 97.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2241. leo305
on the radar it's barely drifting to the WSW..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TNT31 KNHC 302257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2239. Patrap
Alex Vortex (6/30 21:14:30Z): MSLP: 955mb; Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.): 94kts (~108.1mph); Max Flt. Wind (from Remarks): 96kts (~110.4mph) (View Data)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting Patrap:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°21'N 96°56'W (24.35N 96.9333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (184 km) to the SSE (162°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,042m (3,419ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (350°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 94kts (From the E at ~ 108.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:51:20Z


that is the last one they did, new one should be in any minute now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
Man, (just like everybody else in here)it looks to me that Alex is stronger than just a Cat 1....

Can somebody send me a link or tell me where to go to see OZ?

Thanks!
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Quoting JamesSA:

Actually they build with a lot of concrete.

Google Maps Street view... Link


Good. That would make sense considering they are close to the coast. Still wouldn't want to be there during a hurricane.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The NHC is waiting for a vortex message.

they dont know what to say
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2234. Patrap
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2421'N 9656'W (24.35N 96.9333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (184 km) to the SSE (162) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,042m (3,419ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (350) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79 at 94kts (From the E at ~ 108.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (351) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18C (64F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21C (70F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:51:20Z
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting TankHead93:
Recon status?


Just passed through the NE quadrant. Finding almost 100kt flight level winds which should be enough for them to upgrade to Category 2 given the pressure drops.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC kinda late with the 6 pm. Likely as stunned as we are with the pressure of Alex.
Probably just gathering all the recon info.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2231. Levi32
Gotta go again, back later.
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2230. JamesSA
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
It looks like the San Fernando, MX is feeling the west eyewall at the moment. Really not much in the way of cities where Alex is making landfall. Unfortunately, I imagine those small villages are poorer and their homes aren't as sturdy.

Actually they build with a lot of concrete.

Google Maps Street view... Link
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The NHC is waiting for a vortex message.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
cyber, do the good with the major rating
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Time: 22:39:00Z
Coordinates: 24.4833N 97.0667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,184 meters (~ 3,885 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 965.6 mb (~ 28.51 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 109 at 96 knots (From the ESE at ~ 110.4 mph)
Air Temp: 19.4C (~ 66.9F)
Dew Pt: 19.4C (~ 66.9F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 98 knots (~ 112.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 79 knots* (~ 90.8 mph*)
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Quoting Levi32:


Pinhole eye is a very special term reserved for eyewalls 5nm across or less. An eyewall of 10 miles across is pretty common for intense Atlantic hurricanes. Don't overuse the term.
Yup. This is a pinhole eye:

*By the way this is Wilma when it had a pressure of 882mb.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2225. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:


Ich danke Ihnen,sehr! So tell us, if it already tomorrow there, how strong did Alex get before hitting Mexico?

Strong cat 2, I guess. I'm not a professionel historian, forecasting the past. ;-)
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2224. Patrap
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


How's Bob's Vipir ? Is he worried about more tropical troubles for the gulfcoast this week


Havent seen it yet.

One can google Bob Breck FOX 8 and get his Blog
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting doabarrelroll:

in that its a Cat 1 until the NHC says its not.

well i got to tell u no cat one ever looked this good
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NHC kinda late with the 6 pm. Likely as stunned as we are with the pressure of Alex.
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2221. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 22:48Z
Date: June 30, 2010
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 49



22:48:00Z 24.767N 96.750W 843.4 mb

(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,361 meters

(~ 4,465 feet) 985.0 mb

(~ 29.09 inHg) - From 132° at 59 knots

(From the SE at ~ 67.8 mph)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Recon status?
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Ike made landfall with 953mb and 110mph
Link
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Flight level
From 100° at 97 knots
(From the E at ~ 111.5 mph)


Translates down to about 85 knots. Category 2.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Oh my goodness Rich/Atmos is back too!!!


Hey gamma!!! It's good to be back...this season's gonna be a long one.
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Quoting Patrap:


I will run Bob Brecks Broadcast ina lil while when I get a chance for yas.


How's Bob's Vipir ? Is he worried about more tropical troubles for the gulfcoast this week
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2214. Levi32
Quoting AlexEmmett:

wow I spy a real pinhole eye


Pinhole eye is a very special term reserved for eyewalls 5nm across or less. An eyewall of 10 miles across is pretty common for intense Atlantic hurricanes. Don't overuse the term.
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It looks like the San Fernando, MX is feeling the west eyewall at the moment. Really not much in the way of cities where Alex is making landfall. Unfortunately, I imagine those small villages are poorer and their homes aren't as sturdy.
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2212. xcool
CAT 2 AT 6.00PM .
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Quoting doabarrelroll:

i thought she was spot on

no storm with a pressure of 951.6 and a major pinhole eye will ever be considerd a cat one
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2210. Levi32
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wasn't Ike a 944 mb cat. 2?



Eyewall coming ashore!



Where are you getting this?


Yes, but they upgraded him to Cat 2 as soon as his pressure dropped below 960mb. It's nearly impossible to keep winds under 95mph with a pressure in the 950s.
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It has dropped approx. 9 mb in 40 miles with another approx 40 to go before landfall... I know that's not the scientific way to look at it, but jeez...
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
2208. Patrap
Quoting sarahjola:
hey patrap! how about that viper prediction for Friday? should we still be considering that? anything else but viper predicting that? thanks in advance:)


I will run Bob Brecks Broadcast ina lil while when I get a chance for yas.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
BRO: Port Isabel [Cameron Co, TX] amateur radio reports HURRICANE at 04:30 PM CDT -- ham radio operators report that one foot of sea water was over the bulkheads near tarpon street and downed power lines were in the water smoking.
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Yes, he has been a big "but" of a storm this entire time. Like your avatar, by the way. ;)


Thanks. So does my friend, Frodo, who goes by the handle ShireWeatherBuff. ;)
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Next intermediate advisory should be out any second. From the 5PM advisory:

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2204. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
hey patrap! how about that viper prediction for Friday? should we still be considering that? anything else but viper predicting that? thanks in advance:)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

wow I spy a real pinhole eye
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Lurking as ever :)

Why do beauty and destruction seem to go hand in hand? It's looking like a mightily beautifully formed Tropical Cyclone at the moment, hugely impressive for a Category 1. Just hope the destruction is minimal.

If this isn't upgraded in the update though, it surely has to be in the post-analysis. It's looked like at least a Cat 2 for a while now, although I know the sheer size puts the brakes on the wind speeds a bit.
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2199. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:


Great to see ya Levi! It wouldn't be summer without being here =)


That's good to hear :) Great to see you too!
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BRO: Port Isabel [Cameron Co, TX] amateur radio reports HURRICANE at 04:30 PM CDT -- ham radio operators report that one foot of sea water was over the bulkheads near tarpon street and downed power lines were in the water smoking.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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