Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1291 - 1241

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

1291. 7544
Quoting DestinJeff:


I am tracking, KMan, trust me. I saw that CIMSS before anything else this morning I knew soemthing was up. That is why I am anxious for the 1200s.

If Alex takes on a more northerly component then that increases his time over water, which in turn increases the time for the next trof to move east ... with its sw flow out in front.


if this does happen then will this nudge alex in what way tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Asta:
Link


Plenty of lightning activity in the wave coming off Africa now. This could be an indication of a high likelihood for development. Lightning is a key thing to watch this season for new Cape Verde waves as an indicator for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
heavy rain in Brownwsville / Matamoros right now and the eye is still 12 hours out....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1286. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77 mph winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Out for a while
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Alex could potentially dive underneath the ridge.


like OIL on the water..i float like a butterfly, sting like a bee
duck here, meander there...watch me sting you
in your GFS/CMC/NOGAPS...stay tuned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here in Louisiana we are getting some pretty heavy T storms from Alex. Amazing to see how big he is. Quite a storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1281. USSINS
Good morning, all.


1266, 1279. Good points, Kman. And, great obs, too. Thanks.


Could be an interesting day. Alex certainly looks to be improving its overall presentation.
Oz has a press card. It may help. He's also self-contained, translation: he carries extra gas and food.

Hes talking online now. He also hasn't had any sleep. He sounds a little giddy at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


agree, so Alex needs to get himself a new set of wheel and make landfall. especially if strengthening ensues as suggested by NHC, then this complicates steering even further.


Take a look at the 959 mb steering here and toggle between the current position and 3 hours ago. You will see that the Nebreska high has relaxed since then, not strengthened.

As Alex deepens he becomes more resistant to the steering and more naturally inclined to want to go poleward. If it continues to deepen and that ridge remains marginal it could win this war of wills. We will just have to watch and wait.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
morning doc guess your update will be soon

alex taking its sweet @#@ time getting there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. amd
extrapolated pressure of 957 mb. I suspect we will see a dropsonde to give us an exact pressure, and a dropsonde to give us the exact maximum winds.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1276. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Chicklit:
...so is it a typo in Dr. Carver's blog that winds are "still 90 mph?"


Yes, I just fixed it.

Jeff Masters
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm watching too. Ughhhh... I just wish I could tell him some updates from StormW and stuff.


He can still access the site. Just can't log on and post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12:12:30Z 23.567N 95.183W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,119 meters
(~ 3,671 feet) 957.1 mb
(~ 28.26 inHg) - From 133° at 5 knots
(From the SE at ~ 5.8 mph) 21.7°C
(~ 71.1°F) 19.4°C
(~ 66.9°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 4 knots*
(~ 4.6 mph*) 5 mm/hr*
(~ 0.20 in/hr*) 2.2 knots* (~ 2.6 mph*)
44.4%*
12:13:00Z 23.583N 95.167W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,121 meters
(~ 3,678 feet) 957.1 mb
(~ 28.26 inHg) - From 134° at 20 knots
(From the SE at ~ 23.0 mph) 21.5°C
(~ 70.7°F) 19.9°C
(~ 67.8°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 3.2 knots (~ 3.7 mph)
16.0%

957 mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
updates please?? Has he not hit yet??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From local media, preps are being held right now, emergency services lines and directions are being displayed. Several weather section interventions.
Also, several reports are stating warnings to the population in Monterrey since they're expecting even in some parts of the city and the state more rainfall than from this little but unforgetable fella:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I had no clue until this morning too lol, you can imagine my reaction being pushed awake at 6:30AM on any summer day (who wakes someone up 2 hours in advance anyway?? XD)

Back on topic, be back later, someone better post the NE pass for me to read back! haha
LOL! Yeah I have to go too. Be back in a couple minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alex is running North of Track...



AOI

AOI

AOI

Hurricane Hunter Data

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Doubt if the Mexican Army lets Oz through. They will blockade every road toward the beaches. Does he have an escort?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


hey KMan. I see it too and really am trying to make sense of it. That steering high just seems so weak and far removed from Alex to be of any real signficance right now.

CIMSS maps show weakening of the Nebraska high, as far as I can tell. and I remain concerned about Alex not making landfall before the next steering influence does its work.


Remember that from a climatology perspective having a strong ridge in this area in June is not what you would expect to see. Consequesntly, the fact that there has been a bridging high is more the exception than the norm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


Looks pretty evident here.


Thanks (forgot about the Brownsville Doppler)......Love those radars when a storm approches a doppler location....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Alex could potentially dive underneath the ridge.
The only way that that could happen is if he intensifies to a category 3 hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Yeah...I don't see much the next 10 days/subject to change.


Weak possibility central Carribean early next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1262. surfmom
Post 1225 - ARRRRRVY ALEX!!! GEEZE - he's just churning the oil out in the GOMEX -- just beside myself
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! That sucks.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! That sucks.


I had no clue until this morning too lol, you can imagine my reaction being pushed awake at 6:30AM on any summer day (who wakes someone up 2 hours in advance anyway?? XD)

Back on topic, be back later, someone better post the NE pass for me to read back! haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1260. Asta
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
Quoting Neapolitan:


Looks pretty evident here.
Yup Alex has an eye. Motion seems to be moving slowly to the WNW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The storm is currently 959 mb, the intensity of a cat. 3. NHC says that

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE
RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

That would make at 100+ kt at landfall, which would be a cat. 3. This storm needs to be watched closely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1256. Asta
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Alex could potentially dive underneath the ridge.
Yep
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1255. Asta
Link
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
Alex could potentially dive underneath the ridge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
OZ just went live!


xtremehurricanes.com
I'm watching too. Ughhhh... I just wish I could tell him some updates from StormW and stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whipster:


Lots of drug violence down there, he needs to keep a low profile. They just killed the governor candidate.


Unfortunately that's the violence situation that our friends from Tamaulipas live with right now. However, I pretty much doubt that there is going to be these type of activities with hurricane wind forces and torrential rains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1251. pilatus
recon should be sampling the NE quadrant with this pass to. would be interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OZ just went live!


xtremehurricanes.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
While still waiting for more daylight, as the vis loops are still dark, I can't discern an eye on Alex at the moment.........Anyone locate an eye yet by other means?


Looks pretty evident here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1248. surfmom
Post 1208 - thanks Chicklit - I'm already looking towards the future...gulp... with a tub of oil in the gulf and more gushing... kinda feels like pending doom for the Gomex coasties
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pity Oz got himself banned ....


how?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1246. Asta
LINK
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


me too LOL in 20 minutes :(
LOL! That sucks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Alex Update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning

I see that the weak steering regime from last night is still a problem. This has really been a fascinating scenario to watch unfold. The weakness between the two highs has still not filled although some slow progress towards land continues.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
...so is it a typo in Dr. Carver's blog that winds are "still 90 mph?"


Yeah.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1291 - 1241

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.