Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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Quoting hunkerdown:
enough already, you do this with every storm...if we all picked every track/intensity possibility throughout the storm's life we could all say we nailed it. Just get over it and yourself. This isn't a contest and there is no reward.


The NHC does that with every storm
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HBO Apollo 12 hit by lightning
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Quoting extreme236:


I'm not trying to say anything about Alex becoming a cat 4 or anything, but Celia did become a Cat 5 over waters that weren't that warm or even deep for that matter.


Not denying that. But understand that those are exceptions. Generally, such remarkable events do not happen over relatively shallow TCHP.
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Quoting hercj:

Radar malfunction. Maybe a lightning strike. 130J mod totally electronic. They can reboot to soft panel ops, (limited Equipment for flight) but guess we will find out soon.


KInda Like Apollo 12s Saturn 5 Launch when they Lost the Panel due to a Strike after Launch and switched "SCE to Aux".

LOL
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Sorry guys, don't see the pinhole eye with Alex. Even the funktop IR that looked like a pinhole eye for a moment there in post 306 doesn't show the pinhole eye

Latest Alex funktop IR:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg

Sometimes, things look like an eye in one frame, and then gone the next. This thing never had a pinhole eye.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Reed you really have to calm down...

It doesnt look very good.

If you dont like him just ignore him.


I know, but he's the reason why many people on here have me on ignore, not from the arguments, lol well maybe some, but he lies to everyone about me and they ignore me. It ruins my reputation as a good blogger. I put him on ignore, I don't see how a true MET could be so snobby..
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm sticking to a Category 2 at landfall south of the borderline. However I do have that "gut feeling" that I wake up to a Category 3 storm in the morning, very slim chance though. It's large so it'll take time to do so, dry air is inhibiting fast development, and it's near land.


You should be correct considering the pressure in 973mb. Good job again Reed.
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Quoting msgambler:
Pat, save me some coffee tomorrow. I have to get up and head your way at 4am. I'm out for the night.




Will do..ciao
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428. hercj
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Weather Channel reported late this evening that they left due to mechanical problems.

Radar malfunction. Maybe a lightning strike. 130J mod totally electronic. They can reboot to soft panel ops, (limited Equipment for flight) but guess we will find out soon.
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Quoting msgambler:
Leo305, Not trying to argue with you. just trying to get you to understand that a small eye is just an eye. If you google pinhole eye you will see what I am trying to say.


I know what a pin hole eye is, and I know what an eye is.. On satellite it seems like Alex is trying to form a very small eye.. potentially pin hole *WHICH SUPPORTS THE RAPID DROPS IN PRESSURE*. None of us know if it's pin hole or if it's small, but that really doesn't matter because an eye is an eye.. a smaller eye just means a faster intensification phase most of the time.. So don't say "IT WILL NOT" or "IT WILL" because YOU DO NOT KNOW if it will or if it wont. Anything can happen, this is WEATHER not MATH.
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Quoting Skyepony:


That graph just made me notice-

STORM NAME : O1L

What a coincidence...

O1L... OIL...
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2307
I've never seen this before.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.5mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.3mb

Center Temp : -76.9C Cloud Region Temp : -60.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD

Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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night kinds
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Pat, save me some coffee tomorrow. I have to get up and head your way at 4am. I'm out for the night.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Weather Channel reported late this evening that they left due to mechanical problems.


Per NHC discussion:

"SOON THEREAFTER...THE
AIRCRAFT HAD TO DEPART THE AREA DUE TO RADAR FAILURE."
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420. JLPR2
Wasn't Celia sort of Annular for awhile? She did loose her bands to become a round doughnut :P
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I'm sticking to a Category 2 at landfall south of the borderline. However I do have that "gut feeling" that I wake up to a Category 3 storm in the morning, very slim chance though. It's large so it'll take time to do so, dry air is inhibiting fast development, and it's near land.
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We were posting all the messages and the data stopped and they went Home.

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Quoting RecordSeason:
362:

That is not true.

The entire GOMEX can easily support a category 4 right now, even a category 5.

For the second time in as many pages, the entire GOMEX is warmer than any water category 5 Celia ever passed over, and by as much as 1 to 3C!!

Why argue when there's a map freely available for it?? Looks like max. cat 3 to me, even less as it approaches the coast. So a 90mph max is a reasonable forecast.
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Quoting reedzone:


Before I leave you alone, I will quote what I said earlier.. I NEVER forecast Alex to hit TX/LA border. I can show you all my forecasts that only show the red arrow pointing towards Mexico to Southern Texas. Stop putting words in my mouth! Your a horrible excuse for a MET. Done with you period!


Just ignore him Reed. If he really wanted to prove that you said it would hit TX/LA border then he would go and quote the post or whatever that shows that you said that.
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Quoting reedzone:


Before I leave you alone, I will quote what I said earlier.. I NEVER forecast Alex to hit TX/LA border. I can show you all my forecasts that only show the red arrow pointing towards Mexico to Southern Texas. Stop putting words in my mouth! Your a horrible excuse for a MET. Done with you period!
enough already, you do this with every storm...if we all picked every track/intensity possibility throughout the storm's life we could all say we nailed it. Just get over it and yourself. This isn't a contest and there is no reward.
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412. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting Skyepony:
Something happened. Hurricane Hunters left long before expected. LRandyB is one of the featured bloggers. I bet he has pics in the morning of what happened.


Weather Channel reported late this evening that they left due to mechanical problems.
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First Pac-Man CDO I've ever seen on a storm...
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Quoting extreme236:


I'm not trying to say anything about Alex becoming a cat 4 or anything, but Celia did become a Cat 5 over waters that weren't that warm or even deep for that matter.



i think 236 this got in my point am trying too make


good job
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Quoting hunkerdown:
better than med fly infestation...
Better dead than med, that is the official policy.
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Quoting reedzone:


Before I leave you alone, I will quote what I said earlier.. I NEVER forecast Alex to hit TX/LA border. I can show you all my forecasts that only show the red arrow pointing towards Mexico to Southern Texas. Stop putting words in my mouth! Your a horrible excuse for a MET. Done with you period!


Reed you really have to calm down...

It doesnt look very good.

If you dont like him just ignore him.
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Quoting Patrap:
Somethings gonna Happen



I dont Have much time...,

But tell BP they must leave that Place in 2 Days.


Whats Gonna Happen ?

Something WUnderful.





Well, Alex would have to be covered over with monoliths and then implode... Plus I'm pretty sure people will be able to sail the ocean where Alex is now after he passes :)
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Quoting scott39:
Like what kind of something?


The Flight Radar failed and they aborted during the NE Run on the System
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Leo305, Not trying to argue with you. just trying to get you to understand that a small eye is just an eye. If you google pinhole eye you will see what I am trying to say. They are two different things
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Quoting Skyepony:
Something happened. Hurricane Hunters left long before expected. LRandyB is one of the featured bloggers. I bet he has pics in the morning of what happened.
Like what kind of something?
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Quoting Skyepony:


The climo from that year had me scared of fires this summer. We had the same wet winter too that grew extra fuel. Had to water the citrus today. It was dropping dehydrated baby fruit.
better than med fly infestation...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I respectfully disagree.


I'm not trying to say anything about Alex becoming a cat 4 or anything, but Celia did become a Cat 5 over waters that weren't that warm or even deep for that matter.
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where is xcool & the "Alex will hit Texas" gang?

JK

Give credit to EURO!!!
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Quoting oddspeed:

it looks like Alex is throwing a giant fireball at the texas coast


Id note the Eastern side of the Bigger envelope trying to fill as well too

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397. Skyepony (Mod)
Something happened. Hurricane Hunters left long before expected. LRandyB is one of the featured bloggers. I bet he has pics in the morning of what happened.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
OMG I MAY WAKE UP TOOO A CAT 4 OR 5 STORM IN THE AM


Sorry Taz - poof
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Hmm-- Stalled Alex stalled front weakness in the high?
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Quoting RecordSeason:
362:

That is not true.

The entire GOMEX can easily support a category 4 right now, even a category 5.

For the second time in as many pages, the entire GOMEX is warmer than any water category 5 Celia ever passed over, and by as much as 1 to 3C!!


I respectfully disagree.
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Quoting Patrap:
Somethings gonna Happen



I dont Have much time...,

But tell BP they must leave that Place in 2 Days.


Whats Gonna Happen ?

Something WUnderful.




it looks like Alex is throwing a giant fireball at the texas coast
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HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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