Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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Pretty heavy rain moving into my area now with some pretty strong squalls
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639. jpsb
Quoting Patrap:
The wunderground has a great base of regular and featured posters to do whats always been done here.

The best web weather by far on the net.

My blog remains as always, here.

G'night and take care of one another.





Don't forget 0700 fallout for formation.
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Quoting Weather456:
Motion based on:

5:45pm EDT


12:45am EDT


something showing last 3 hours would be more interesting. We know west early but stalled for several hours.
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637. xcool
bob breck FAKE HAIR.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Wow.

Cant believe that Pats going to be gone.

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So am I the only one who thinks Alex is really getting his act together? Pretty sure the min pressure is below 970 right now.
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good night everyone
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good night Pat
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i do like bob though. don't get me wrong. he's just funny sometimes.
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Okay, I am tired of over-exaggeration on CNN.

Just saw a recorded feed of Chad Myers saying Alex is responsible for convection across all of the Gulf of Mexico and the Carolinas, he's implying that the storm is huge!

Okay, not 100% of all that weather today across the SE US is not because of Alex directly. A shortwave trough over the SE US and longwave over the NE US made the convection across the SE US, including FL panhandle. Plus, the SE US shortwave is what made the convection to the N of Alex yesterday.

Plus, Chad was citing a computer model recurving Alex's remnants eastward and affecting southern Louisiana with 10 inches of rain. That's just a model. Some models also said that Alex would be a 950 mb hurricane in MS back when it was Invest 93L. Remember that? No way models are right this early. Too early to mention that Chad.
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And goodnight to all. Hasta luego.
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Quoting Patrap:
The wunderground has a great base of regular and featured posters to do whats always been done here.

The best web weather by far on the net.

My blog remains as always, here.





good, cuz i need a cooler head to turn when bob breck starts pulling his hair out.lol:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting Patrap:
The wunderground has a great base of regular and featured posters to do whats always been done here.

The best web weather by far on the net.

My blog remains as always, here.

G'night and take care of one another.







Patrap, we've had our differences and stuff. This blog however won't be the same without you, I enjoy your maps, satellites and stuff, course the comedy as well ;)
Take care and God Bless you!
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624. hercj
Quoting Weather456:
Motion based on:

5:45pm EDT


12:45am EDT



456 I have a question, if this system is going to end up moving w into Mexico, will it not end up in the Pacific. Its huge and a very low pressure system.
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Quoting Patrap:


Thats very kind indeed sarah.

Its been a good run here and I like sharing the info as well.

But Like Presslord...,

I may be going Up to the ether world here to the Portlight call.

Alex may be my last Live posting Storm.


no, not this extremely active season
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Goodnight, Pat.
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621. xcool
:0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
620. hercj
Quoting Patrap:
The wunderground has a great base of regular and featured posters to do whats always been done here.

The best web weather by far on the net.

My blog remains as always, here.

G'night and take care of one another.






Semper Fi Marine.
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Quoting xcool:



HMMMM


Great graphic there Xcool....look closely at that graphic at the shape of Alex..it is oblong and pointed towards the NE.....something is causing that shape...wanna guess what it is?
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618. Asta
Gnite Patrap!
Take care!
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someone post W movement evidence. All I see is stalled. Model does not count and only last few hours.
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Motion based on:

5:45pm EDT


12:45am EDT


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wunderground has a great base of regular and featured posters to do whats always been done here.

The best web weather by far on the net.

My blog remains as always, here.

G'night and take care of one another.





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Is a 2am update going to come out?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NOpe no worries unless it stalls and the other trough comes...but, that is not likely to occur before it moves inland into Mexico.....


Are you talking about the small upper trough over W Texas? I concur, that trough is diminishing as upper ridging takes over from the central US. Mass upper convergence E of that upper ridge and W of the large upper trough over E US means surface pressueres rising N of Alex, and hence surface ridging too!

Yep, we have a deep-layered ridge, ridging in the upper and lower layers of the atmosphere building N of Alex. No way this thing can break through.
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611. xcool



YEP NNW HE RIGTH
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I'm wondering if this is the largest system we've ever seen in the Gulf, or perhaps even the Atlantic basin.



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well patrap i'll i have to say is that it won't be the same without you, grown accustom to you being on here.

one of these boys is my nephew

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1300295059721

semper fi
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Quoting Patrap:
Alex may be my last Live posting Storm.


Will you keep you blog here updated? I often point those your way who may need good advice on preparedness.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Parallel GFS 156 hours

Nothing.


I'm not sure about the parallel but the GFS didn't pick up on Alex until later on. For all we know there could be another entity it isn't picking up. Just have to pay close attention to trends and keep focus on what the MJO may do during that time frame.
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Quoting centex:
forecasted?


thats his current motion - 280-285 degrees very slowly
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gfdl 125 mph hurricane south of texas/
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Quoting scott39:
Whats going to get Alex moving?


ridge to the north.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Is it possible for Alex to go to "break thru " the ridge or whatecer alot of you said was guiding Alex and go north or are we SURE that Alex is going to make landfall in Mexico or south texas? Just wondering if Alex does become a cat 2-3 overnite could this happen?


NOpe no worries unless it stalls and the other trough comes...but, that is not likely to occur before it moves inland into Mexico.....
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I have Hurricane Alex right at 95W, 23N
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599. xcool



HMMMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Whats going to get Alex moving?
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Quoting Weather456:
Alex barely moving about 280-285 degrees
forecasted?
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Alex barely moving about 280-285 degrees
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595. jpsb
Quoting TexasHurricane:


what??
nnw?
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594. Asta
LSU Earth Scan Lab- Water Vapor Loop
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This looks spinning in same location.

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592. xcool
btwntx08 5:26 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
according if u look at post 557 follow the center it barely moved a hair and whatever movement it did it was nnw
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
huh nnw


what??
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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