Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 691 - 641

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

From the NHC:

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 94.8W


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 94.8W

Okay, I see your points. Yeah, I guess they are taking 12 hour average. I guess in the last 3 hours, it has stalled.

Stalling now is probably better for S Texas, but worse for NE Mexico. By the time Alex resumes good motion, it will have been at a more southerly position than expected when the ridge really starts to push it, keeping its WNW track further south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LRandyB:


Thanks! If it's a busy season, I'll have lots more over the course of the summer!
i would like to say thanks. you guys put your lives on the line to get critical information to the public, which in turn saves lives. you guys are hero's in my book:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
688. xcool
i did



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Well a lot of the general public doesn't know much about hurricanes.


Agreed...lol but to us that is a bit funny. I've had people ask me if Alex will convert into a landcane when it gets across the coastline and if it will continue to strengthen. I was like no unless this hurricane is something out of twilight - it's going to weaken at after landfall. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No one posted image showing last three hours movement. Does this mean no movement?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Maybe Jeanne 2004? Chad Myers, LOL, its all about money. Maybe they need to exaggerate to have people keep watching CNN.


no it was more recent, hanna 2008?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hercj:

Thanks brother. The J was my last aircraft before retiring to the G550. It must be a bear to lose that in the middle of the convective bands. Glad you guys are home.


It was. I'll fly a cat 5 all day long when I know what I'm flying into. It's rather nerve racking to be blind and suddenly find yourself in the middle of a thunderstorm which is what happened to us as we headed north. We passed through the heavy convection about 100 miles NNE of the center.

We're glad to be back too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. ALEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE
COASTLINE
."

They seriously had to write that??


Yep, they do. Otherwise, Chad Myers at CNN would say otherwise! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
681. hercj
Quoting LRandyB:


Our radar failed as we were exiting the eye to the SE. Bad juju to fly in a hurricane without radar. So we had to return to base.

Thanks brother. The J was my last aircraft before retiring to the G550. It must be a bear to lose that in the middle of the convective bands. Glad you guys are home.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WaterWitch11:
lrandyb your pictures are absolutely awesome and hope to see more!


Thanks! If it's a busy season, I'll have lots more over the course of the summer!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting victoriahurricane:


But if that 5 mph W is averaged over the last 12 hours and the forecast before it was saying it was moving at 9 mph, for the past few hours it's had to be nearly stationary for it to go down that much right?


Okay, it may have studdered a bit. I look at longer term satellite loops so I don't get confused by the short-term wobbles and stalls.

LOL Alex, quit studdering LOL and confusing us. Maybe its writing an intro to rap music: A A A Alex... A A Alex...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Thats very kind indeed sarah.

Its been a good run here and I like sharing the info as well.

But Like Presslord...,

I may be going Up to the ether world here to the Portlight call.

Alex may be my last Live posting Storm.


Hate to hear that. When you are not here, you are missed, because you make a difference.

Thanks for what you've done and for doing what you do do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lrandyb your pictures are absolutely awesome and hope to see more!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Latest NHC advisory:

Location: 23.1°N 94.8°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb

This storm is NOT STALLED. Its moving west. Yep, Alex is only intensifying gradually.
Why havent the coordinates changed since the last advisory?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. ALEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE
COASTLINE
."

They seriously had to write that??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
673. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting hercj:
LRandy, what went wrong?


Our radar failed as we were exiting the eye to the SE. Bad juju to fly in a hurricane without radar. So we had to return to base.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In my job I respond nights, weekends, Holiday on call, but only 40K impacted. HH most be working on different formula.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like north florida is forcasting lots of rain for tomorrow. 90 percent chance Tstms for Tallahassee.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting victoriahurricane:


But if that 5 mph W is averaged over the last 12 hours and the forecast before it was saying it was moving at 9 mph, for the past few hours it's had to be nearly stationary for it to go down that much right?

I agree. That's crazy, it should be a 3 or at most 6 hour average of movement, not 12!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alex coordinates have not changed in 3 hours. Not moving!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WaterWitch11:
chad myers is no where near dr. masters. i remember when a system did a loopty - loopty and myers stated no one could predict that happening but dr masters did. now what storm was that?


Maybe Jeanne 2004? Chad Myers, LOL, its all about money. Maybe they need to exaggerate to have people keep watching CNN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
664. xcool
stall
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
663. hercj
Quoting LRandyB:
Back on the ground after our flight got cut short. But we upgraded Alex to a hurricane on the one pass we made. I posted a few pictures on my blog.
LRandy, what went wrong?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
page not found stsimonsisland
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY
IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR...AND A SLOW
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. From the Advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back on the ground after our flight got cut short. But we upgraded Alex to a hurricane on the one pass we made. I posted a few pictures on my blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING..."....NHC still not ruling out South Texas landfall at 2AM advisory...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
657. xcool
sarahjola lol .he not move,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Why is the eye not popping out? You can see so clearly on the Rainbow that it wants to. Also big SW wobble. Well I'll check up again in the morning. Night all

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ask and ye shall receive The advisory is up.


Thanks for posting that!

On a sidenote, was amazing as we drove across the state today...from Brownsville to about an hour north of Dallas. Long drive with plenty of thunderstorms and some amazing clouds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Latest NHC advisory:

Location: 23.1°N 94.8°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb

This storm is NOT STALLED. Its moving west. Yep, Alex is only intensifying gradually.


But if that 5 mph W is averaged over the last 12 hours and the forecast before it was saying it was moving at 9 mph, for the past few hours it's had to be nearly stationary for it to go down that much right?
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
Quoting xcool:
bob breck FAKE HAIR.
lol! he has to buy a new piece after every hurricane season:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
1:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 30
Location: 23.1°N 94.8°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest NHC advisory:

Location: 23.1°N 94.8°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb

This storm is NOT STALLED. Its moving west. Yep, Alex is only intensifying gradually.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
chad myers is no where near dr. masters. i remember when a system did a loopty - loopty and myers stated no one could predict that happening but dr masters did. now what storm was that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gnite pat- and i really want to thank you for all that you have done and will do in the future. have a blessed journey
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
647. xcool
not move
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
644. xcool
blog go down
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 30
Location: 23.1°N 94.8°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The wunderground has a great base of regular and featured posters to do whats always been done here.

The best web weather by far on the net.

My blog remains as always, here.

G'night and take care of one another.







Take care.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty heavy rain moving into my area now with some pretty strong squalls
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 691 - 641

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
27 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron