Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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Quoting RecordSeason:
Is it just me, or does the blob east of Brownsville have a localized, closed vortex of it's own which is visible on radar?

Link

Looking at the long range radar and the tropical floater with radar overlay on Link, it looks like the long range radar is actually picking up on the eye. Look at how far south and east that vortex is on radar and compare that with the coastline on satalite.
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
Morning,

AT what time aprox Alex take land?
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Quoting Fl30258713:


ULL's can have an effect on Hurricanes/Tropical Storms if they track closely to each other, but that ULL won't have any effect of Alex with the current forecast as it is.


This ULL is so far to the east of Alex; yeah, it won't shear it. It maybe helping the large-scale outflow on its E side.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


It helps Alex a little. It can help to increase upper outflow on the east side of Alex as upper winds blow away from Alex's anticyclone into the upper low center. It has been helping Alex's outflow since its birth.


Even as far apart as they are at this point?
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
I think Alex has finally cleared out his eye.
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Quoting peejodo:

Can that have any effect on Alex?


ULL's can have an effect on Hurricanes/Tropical Storms if they track closely to each other, but that ULL won't have any effect of Alex with the current forecast as it is.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
783. xcool


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782. xcool
ecmwf TAKE HIM NNW
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Quoting peejodo:

Can that have any effect on Alex?


It helps Alex a little. It can help to increase upper outflow on the east side of Alex as upper winds blow away from Alex's anticyclone into the upper low center. It has been helping Alex's outflow since its birth.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
779. xcool
HE STALLS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The COC is moving northwest, as best I can tell, with a marked jog to the north in the last frame. The center is easy to pick out and follow.

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alex not move ooh noooo
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776. xcool
FLY IN Alex
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yes it is.

Can that have any effect on Alex?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


WOW! You can easily see how much stronger and bigger Alex has gotten and he's still expanding. Incredible.
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Quoting peejodo:
There is a swirl to the east of the Bahamas. Is that an upper level low?


Yes it is.
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Either I'm gettin' too tired or NHC's advisory 18a is the same as advisory 18
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771. JLPR2


Eye is clearing out
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Quoting sdcbassman:


Summed up perfectly ... Reed does this every season. Lighten up Reed. Actually you do more harm then good when you act this way. You get under many peoples "skin" constantly trying to pat yourself on the back for your guesscasts. Man up and let it go. Move on. Let's talk about Alex and not your hurt feelings. Poor you.


The blog has been fine why are you stirring up things?
(๏̯͡๏)
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
On my blog (link), I invite any observed impacts you are getting from Alex, including oil spill issues. Just want to get a sense of what the impacts are like during Alex.

You can also find a full review of Alex's synoptic history on my latest blog post.
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768. xcool
<< slidell la
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Quoting sarahjola:
i'm in mandeville right off the lake:)


Cool beans!
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766. xcool
Link


go here
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765. xcool
wow bad .ecmwf
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i'm in mandeville right off the lake:)
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There is a swirl to the east of the Bahamas. Is that an upper level low?
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South-Central Louisiana Near Crowley
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Quoting scottsvb:


Im just snobby to you cause you challenge all my forecasts for years and you fail each time and when you do fail you hate me more. Also you dont like me cause you blame me for you being banned on the other hurricane site but I didnt get you banned.. you got yourself banned for wishcasting they said and giving forecasts without backing up logical reasons why. Even earlier today you jumped on my forecast cause I continiously said 23.5-24N and started to flip out. Anyways Stormchaser is correct, if you dont want to hear what I say... put me on ignore...but you dont put me on ignore cause you know I will be correct 90% of the time. And why? Cause I do have a degree in Meteorology and I also have friends who work @ local NWS and hear their inputs and also connections to the NHC. You keep me around also cause you want 1 day for me to get a forecast wrong when you are right.. and you know what.. I do get things wrong..but if you get it correct.. it will be a guesscast..not a forecast.


Summed up perfectly ... Reed does this every season. Lighten up Reed. Actually you do more harm then good when you act this way. You get under many peoples "skin" constantly trying to pat yourself on the back for your guesscasts. Man up and let it go. Move on. Let's talk about Alex and not your hurt feelings. Poor you.
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where are you located laboy444?
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Quoting xcool:
he not move to that badddd
The ridge should push this west but i would have expected to move faster than it is right now if its moving.
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0.30" of rain and alot more coming...for me...pretty gusty winds....clocking 20 to 30 on my kestrel 2000
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754. xcool
he not move to that badddd
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712

TCCA23 KNHC 300616

STDWCA



SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0615 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010





SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...ALEX



MAX RAINFALL

DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST

----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

29/0615 UTC 22.4N 95.0W 280/04 31.9 IN 17.7 IN





LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...



DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER

------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 4.3 TO 9.3 IN 0.0 TO 4.9 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 2.6 TO 9.0 IN 0.1 TO 4.0 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 6.5 TO 17.7 IN 0.6 TO 4.2 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 1.1 TO 13.3 IN 0.0 TO 0.4 IN


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751. JLPR2
748. GlobalWarming 2:49 AM AST on June 30, 2010

JLPR - currently in disuse
JLPR2- my current one
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:
wow
pretty much the entire western Gulf is covered by Alex O_O


Now that's organization! I would be a little concerned if Alex stayed away from the coast for a while, his winds could catch up to CAT 3 with those pressures. That is of course if he doesn't upwell himself into oblivion.
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it almost looks as if that area of convection I've been talking about is getting sucked up into the convection already in Louisiana. do my eyes deceive me?
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Quoting xcool:



update
Very impressive starting to see the eye.
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746. JLPR2
wow
pretty much the entire western Gulf is covered by Alex O_O
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742- wow:)
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Quoting sarahjola:
thanks- where do you think the departed convection will end up, and is the weather bad in that convection?


From what I recall earlier, there's over 1.5 inches of rain per hour and over 40 knot winds found in one of those "thingies" :P
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thanks- where do you think the departed convection will end up, and is the weather bad in that convection?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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