Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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i still don't understand why the convection over la. is pulling the convection to the nne of alex toward la. is it really doing that or does it just look that way?
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
840. xcool
http://tropicalatlantic.com/home/


go here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Approx how long until the HH gets to the center of Alex?


Here is the HH as of 7 mins ago..
I overlay the plane for ya..

Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
xcool, I'm just wondering approximately how long, like half an hour, 2 hours, 3 hours what?
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
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836. xcool
not yet
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Approx how long until the HH gets to the center of Alex?
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834. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
833. xcool
lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Wow its quiet in here i know its 3:57am eastern time but i thought it would be more active with a strengthening hurricane.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
alex is no move
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Quoting washingaway:
LRandyB is posting pics of Alex in the photo gallery.
Cool
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829. xcool
;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
LRandyB is posting pics of Alex in the photo gallery.
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I got to admit this slow down i wasnt expecting but when it starts to move it should resume a west to west north west motion into mexico.
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826. xcool
victoriahurricane lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
...he is still trying!

Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting Michfan:


North side still needs to close off.


Concur, this storm is not ready to strengthen quickly with that kind of eye. I definetly think its strengthening steadily, not rapidly. Probably 85 mph winds by the 5 AM advisory.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 491 Comments: 3688
Quoting xcool:
wow not good


You've got to stop doing that lol, what do you see? Or are you talking about the Earthquake?
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Quoting xcool:
wow not good
It should go west when it starts moving
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821. xcool
wow not good
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Quoting peejodo:
NCHurricane2009 and Fl30258713
This was the site I saw that ULL on. I believe its a water vapor image.

Link




:-)
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
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817. 789
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
This is not going to be a good day for Mexico. Earthquake just struck south of Mexico City. Preliminary magnitude 6.5.
Link
ouch! the more power alex gets the more north he shall go lets hold him down
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I was looking at a CIMMS chart and it looked like High Pressure was starting to build to Alex's West.

(I couldn't get the link to post on here for some strange reason.)
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
NCHurricane2009 and Fl30258713
This was the site I saw that ULL on. I believe its a water vapor image.

href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: February 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
814. JLPR2
Well I dont have the energy to stay awake to wait for the recon to get into Alex so I'll go to bed and I'll see tomorrow what they found, night everyone! Or good morning. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
This is not going to be a good day for Mexico. Earthquake just struck south of Mexico City. Preliminary magnitude 6.5.
Link

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North side still needs to close off.
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He is trying..

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Quoting RecordSeason:
791:

No, there is a mini-vortex literally right off the coast of Brownsville, in the feeder band, and it is still there on the radar.

The CoC of Alex is still about 240 miles away from Brownsville, and is not what I'm talking about.

Are you meaning the dry spot in the band? I don't see any rotation there, just a circular hole.
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Hey xcool, where are the HH right now?


Zoom in on pin..
Overlays at bottom of map..
HH position
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808. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, check this out:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

During the animation, click on the check box that says HDW-high, this shows the upper-level wind vectors. It may take a little concentration, but do you see how the upper-level wind vectors show a cyclonic spin for the upper low and the anticyclonic spin over Alex? The pressure gradient aloft between Alex's anticyclone and the upper-level low is allowing lots of air traveling SEward into the upper-level low, away from Alex's anticyclone. Hence, nice outflow on E side of Alex.

Also, note how the HDW-high wind vectors show a larger ULL spin than what it looks like by cloud coverage. That means the ULL's influence is closer to Alex than it seems.


Thanks.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
806. jsit
hmmm uh oh- thats all Im saying...
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Thats not a pinhole eye until it clears itself out all the way.
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This is a follow-up to post 797:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-ir4.html

This un-colorized infrared makes it easier to view the HDW-high vectors.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 491 Comments: 3688
NCHurricane2009 and Fl30258713

Thanks to both of you for your response.
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801. xcool
7:22 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
victoriahurricane no clue rigth now.i'm eat rigth now.



http://tropicalatlantic.com/home/

go the
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
799. OracleDeAtlantis
7:22 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting victoriahurricane:
I think Alex has finally cleared out his eye.


Yes, and it's a pinhole eye. Isn't that the most difficult to predict?
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
798. washingaway
7:21 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting lopaka001:


That looks like and eye to me
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797. NCHurricane2009
7:21 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting Fl30258713:


Even as far apart as they are at this point?


Yeah, check this out:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

During the animation, click on the check box that says HDW-high, this shows the upper-level wind vectors. It may take a little concentration, but do you see how the upper-level wind vectors show a cyclonic spin for the upper low and the anticyclonic spin over Alex? The pressure gradient aloft between Alex's anticyclone and the upper-level low is allowing lots of air traveling SEward into the upper-level low, away from Alex's anticyclone. Hence, nice outflow on E side of Alex.

Also, note how the HDW-high wind vectors show a larger ULL spin than what it looks like by cloud coverage. That means the ULL's influence is closer to Alex than it seems.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 491 Comments: 3688
796. JLPR2
7:21 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Time: 07:15:00Z
Coordinates: 27.5167N 91.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,733 meters (~ 25,371 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 417 meters (~ 1,368 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 21 knots (From the SE at ~ 24.1 mph)
Air Temp: -14.5°C (~ 5.9°F)
Dew Pt: -15.7°C (~ 3.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)

Still far away from Alex
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
795. Fl30258713
7:21 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting FtWaltonBch2Tucson:

Looking at the long range radar and the tropical floater with radar overlay on, it looks like the long range radar is actually picking up on the eye. Look at how far south and east that vortex is on radar and compare that with the coastline on satalite.


Good eye. (yours, that is)
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
793. cocoabeachcane
7:19 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
It is supposed to make landfall around 8pm EST tomorrow I believe. About 16 hours from now.
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792. victoriahurricane
7:18 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Hey xcool, where are the HH right now?
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791. FtWaltonBch2Tucson
7:17 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
Is it just me, or does the blob east of Brownsville have a localized, closed vortex of it's own which is visible on radar?

Link

Looking at the long range radar and the tropical floater with radar overlay on Link, it looks like the long range radar is actually picking up on the eye. Look at how far south and east that vortex is on radar and compare that with the coastline on satalite.
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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