Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 891 - 841

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Guess it isn't working for me, oh well.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
i don't see nnw i see north last frame
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
889. xcool
lopaka001 that cool.i need a beer hook me upp
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
As of 3:26 a.m. CDT Infrared shows the eye perfectly formed.....seems it stalled a bit to do so in its favor. go Alex go!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hhunter:
URNT12 KNHC 300040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 30/00:17:20Z
B. 22 deg 57 min N
094 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1191 m
D. 47 kt
E. 293 deg 6 nm
F. 021 deg 52 kt
G. 297 deg 7 nm
H. 973 mb
I. 20 C / 1521 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C8
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 1001A ALEX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 00:15:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 00:19:30Z

That's old. It's from 7 hours ago.

Quoting lopaka001:
...as of 8 mins ago !


Where do you find the Google satellites?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
lopaka001 SO YOU DNOT LIKE MY BLOG DAMM ;) LMAO


I don't have a blog who am I to judge anyone blog..
(๏̯͡๏)
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting sarahjola:
when will alex resume w or wnw?


soon i think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
was it a wobble that made alex change course? why nnw now? what changed and what is the steering pattern right now? thanks in advance:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URNT12 KNHC 300040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 30/00:17:20Z
B. 22 deg 57 min N
094 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1191 m
D. 47 kt
E. 293 deg 6 nm
F. 021 deg 52 kt
G. 297 deg 7 nm
H. 973 mb
I. 20 C / 1521 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C8
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 1001A ALEX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 00:15:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 00:19:30Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
when will alex resume w or wnw?
Should happen soon the ridge is strong it will shove alex to the west.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
...as of 8 mins ago !

Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
879. xcool
ooo boy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Alex has Tx in his eye....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
877. xcool
sarahjola nnw to imo.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
876. xcool
scott.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
when will alex resume w or wnw?
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting Or4590:
what time alex make landfall? around 6pm?

According to the forecast(11pm EDT), Alex is forecasted to make landfall in about 18 hours, so it'll make landfall around 11pm EDT(10pm CDT)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
xcool : but he not make it to cat3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
xcool, which name do you want me to call you by? lol
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
Quoting xcool:
HE NNW .ALL MY FRIENDS SEE TOO
It seems like it has gained some northwestward movement but should be temporary
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
870. xcool
lopaka001 SO YOU DNOT LIKE MY BLOG DAMM ;) LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
what time alex make landfall? around 6pm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77 mph winds found at 24.2 N with 992 MB pressure wow.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
992.9 mb
(~ 29.32 inHg) - From 131° at 67 knots
(From the SE at ~ 77.0 mph
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
866. xcool
HE NNW .ALL MY FRIENDS SEE TOO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
is it my tired eyes or did alex stumble backwards a bit? thanks in advance:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
864. xcool
Or4590 HE HURRICANE NOW.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
863. xcool
lopaka001 LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
alex take too long he wont make major hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
861. xcool
IKNOW I WAS TIRED I MADE AT 400AM morning
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
...actually that is your blog duh on me !
I need another beer..
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
lol
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Sorry, I'll call you by xcool if you want me to.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
857. xcool
I forgot” OPPS I'M DUCK
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
...you spelled copyright wrong by the way!
;=)
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
855. xcool
lopaka001 HELL YEAH :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
lopaka001 WHO..


I meant your profile..
Your photo says copyright by scott.
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
853. xcool
lopaka001 WHO..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
...can see something on the shortwave now!

Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
851. xcool
he close to 25N NOW.NO BULL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
victoriahurricane how you know my name


Lol it's on your blog !
:=)
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
849. xcool
oh :0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Kinda says it in your profile........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
victoriahurricane how you know my name


Sorry, I've seen it mentioned on the blog for a while. I've been in lurkdom since 2007, but Omar got me to register in 2008.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
846. xcool
victoriahurricane how you know my name
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
845. xcool
l
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
...he's really really trying !

Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting xcool:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/home/


go here


Thanks lopaka and Scott! Wow 67 mph winds already?
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
842. xcool
feeder band
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
i still don't understand why the convection over la. is pulling the convection to the nne of alex toward la. is it really doing that or does it just look that way?
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294

Viewing: 891 - 841

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
56 °F
Overcast