Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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Katrina Lowest pressure 902 mbar (hPa; 26.64 inHg)
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Looks like it moved 16 miles NNW since the last advisory
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they officially came out with 961
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 08:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 8:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2319'N 9500'W (23.3167N 95.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (384 km) to the SE (139) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,075m (3,527ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NE (45) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123 at 82kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (45) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19C (66F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19C (66F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 8:33:40Z

Interesting to note that the last advisory sent out had the eyewall open in the North...
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
This is where the 959.4 is recorded..
The pin is the HH plane..

Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting xcool:
he got 2 eyes lol no lie
LOL!
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935. xcool


he look mad like get off me fool lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
934. xcool
he got 2 eyes lol no lie
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
will be interesting to see how this translates to wind speed..i don't think it will like we think because of enormous size..something is off with the normal pressure to wind physics of this storm..but bastardi would definetly classify it as a solid 2 plus on pressure wind combined..south texas think of it as such.
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Is it me or is it dropping a MB. every minute?
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Quoting victoriahurricane:
08:42:30Z 23.333N 94.967W 843.9 mb
(~ 24.92 inHg) 1,131 meters
(~ 3,711 feet) 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) - From 117° at 12 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 13.8 mph) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 19.6°C
(~ 67.3°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 0 knots*
(~ 0 mph*) 5 mm/hr*
(~ 0.20 in/hr*) 0.0 knots* (~ 0.0 mph*)
0.0%*

...
this is ike part 2 just more to the south it seems low pressure but low winds as well.
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that is extrapolated surface pressure
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959! omg!
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But that's at altitude, isn't it? What's the extrapolated surface pressure? Or is that it?
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926. xcool
power hurricane .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
08:42:30Z 23.333N 94.967W 843.9 mb
(~ 24.92 inHg) 1,131 meters
(~ 3,711 feet) 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) - From 117° at 12 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 13.8 mph) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 19.6°C
(~ 67.3°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 0 knots*
(~ 0 mph*) 5 mm/hr*
(~ 0.20 in/hr*) 0.0 knots* (~ 0.0 mph*)
0.0%*

...
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
wow big drop in pressure this is not good but good thing this is a large storm will take time for winds to catch up to the pressure.


+1
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
alex seem to jump n a good bit
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IT better not hit Cat. 2! if so no rooftop hurricane party for me....cant play cards in that weather.....!
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920. xcool

959.4mb!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
08:42:30Z 23.333N 94.967W 843.9 mb
(~ 24.92 inHg) 1,131 meters
(~ 3,711 feet) 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) - From 117° at 12 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 13.8 mph) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 19.6°C
(~ 67.3°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 0 knots*
(~ 0 mph*) 5 mm/hr*
(~ 0.20 in/hr*) 0.0 knots* (~ 0.0 mph*)
0.0%*
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Quoting Hhunter:
highest sustained still around 80mph it seems..strange


Those are all suspect readings though, the highest they found was 71.3 mph so far.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
Quoting Hhunter:
highest sustained still around 80mph it seems..strange
winds have to catch up to the pressure this is expected but if it does watch out.
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what is steering alex right now? thanks in advance:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
highest sustained still around 80mph it seems..strange
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Quoting Hhunter:
08:35:00Z 23.383N 94.917W 843.6 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,160 meters
(~ 3,806 feet) 963.1 mb
(~ 28.44 inHg) - From 118° at 43 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 49.4 mph) 20.4°C
(~ 68.7°F) 15.0°C
(~ 59.0°F) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 54 knots*
(~ 62.1 mph*) 9 mm/hr*
(~ 0.35 in/hr*) 48.4 knots* (~ 55.6 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 112.5%*
wow big drop in pressure this is not good but good thing this is a large storm will take time for winds to catch up to the pressure.
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Flight 963mb 80kts

963mb is A CAT2 hurricane
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Quoting flibinite:
963?! Really?

If so, this is getting bad, really bad, considering it does have aways to go before it makes landfall, wherever that is. :-(

Jo

With the outflow watch for flash flood around gulf.
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911. xcool
that cat 2
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I am looking at the 963mb, and there the winds at the surface were 54kts. So I am guessing they aren't to the center yet too. Or am I wrong?
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08:35:00Z 23.383N 94.917W 843.6 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,160 meters
(~ 3,806 feet) 963.1 mb
(~ 28.44 inHg) - From 118° at 43 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 49.4 mph) 20.4°C
(~ 68.7°F) 15.0°C
(~ 59.0°F) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 54 knots*
(~ 62.1 mph*) 9 mm/hr*
(~ 0.35 in/hr*) 48.4 knots* (~ 55.6 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 112.5%*
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963mb!! really!!! i need to refresh my source more often!!!
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Holy!!!!!

08:35:00Z 23.383N 94.917W 843.6 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,160 meters
(~ 3,806 feet) 963.1 mb
(~ 28.44 inHg) - From 118° at 43 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 49.4 mph) 20.4°C
(~ 68.7°F) 15.0°C
(~ 59.0°F) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 54 knots*
(~ 62.1 mph*) 9 mm/hr*
(~ 0.35 in/hr*) 48.4 knots* (~ 55.6 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 112.5%*
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
963?! Really?

If so, this is getting bad, really bad, considering it does have aways to go before it makes landfall, wherever that is. :-(

Jo
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pressure is 963 62 knots 23.38 94.91
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902. xcool
dam
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
963mb
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If anyone still in here can, please keep feeding us hurricane hunter info, as I can't help but feel it will be very important for all who read it. Thanks in advance...

Jo
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he is so close to land. could it be possible that he will ride the coast like he did off the Yucatan
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Link

Alex definitely has an eye.
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Quoting Or4590:
maybe just wobble
Thats what i think its just a wobble but every wobble is important now
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894. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Bobbyweather:

That's old. It's from 7 hours ago.


Where do you find the Google satellites?


I use this address and plug in the new coordinates as reported then use one of the overlays at the bottom of map.
The plane is my doing I hate the pin so I overlay it onto the pin.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/maps/position.cgi?lat=24.2&lon=-94.1

Member Since: February 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
maybe just wobble
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Guess it isn't working for me, oh well.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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