Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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Quoting JVGazeley:


No, that's at altitude. It's the 89mph that's a better indication.
Agreed, but it's very interesting to note that the dropsonde found that, they haven't seen anything near that strong at flight level...
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990. xcool
953 wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Wow, 116 mph? Do we have a Cat 3 on our hands right now?


No, that's at altitude. It's the 89mph that's a better indication.

EDIT: Beat me to it MichFan :)
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Quoting victoriahurricane:
Wow, 116 mph? Do we have a Cat 3 on our hands right now?


Thats too high up to be a surface reading. The 89 mph one is more accurate.
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986. xcool
NOT GOOD FOR steering pattern IF HE CAT 2 OR 3 .IMO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting FtWaltonBch2Tucson:
Oops.... You beat me to it... [sigh]


Interesting to see someone else thought of it about when I did, lol.
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I think thats a cat 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds...like Dolly...
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wind working down to surface
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That would fit the pressure....
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I wouldn't be surprised at all if Alex rapidly intensifies at the rate hes going.
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Wow, 116 mph? Do we have a Cat 3 on our hands right now?
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Quoting Makoto1:
Found this eyewall drop interesting:
Oops.... You beat me to it... [sigh]
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977. xcool
now HE CAT 2 .NOT GOOD.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
976. xcool
mmf 116 mph
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
975. xcool
sarahjola .i have bad feel.imo.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 09:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 07

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 9Z on the 30th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 23.4N 94.9W
Location: 239 miles (384 km) to the SE (137°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
966mb (28.53 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F) Unavailable
1000mb -307m (-1007 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 385m (1,263 ft) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F) 125° (from the SE) 74 knots (85 mph)
850mb 1,128m (3,701 ft) 21.4°C (70.5°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F) 120° (from the ESE) 40 knots (46 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 8:35Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall. (045 - This is either the radians or degrees to the eye center. Our system cannot tell the difference.)

Splash Location: 23.39N 94.94W
Splash Time: 8:36Z

Release Location: 23.38N 94.92W View map)
Release Time: 8:35:06Z

Splash Location: 23.41N 94.93W (
Splash Time: 8:36:03Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 81 knots (93 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 78 knots (90 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 900mb to 964mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 88 knots (101 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20800

Height of the last reported wind: 13 geopotential meters


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
966mb (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F)
914mb 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.6°C (76.3°F)
850mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F)
844mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) Approximately 15°C (59°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
966mb (Surface) Unavailable
964mb 95° (from the E) 77 knots (89 mph)
960mb 90° (from the E) 77 knots (89 mph)
955mb 100° (from the E) 97 knots (112 mph)
953mb 105° (from the ESE) 101 knots (116 mph)
942mb 115° (from the ESE) 94 knots (108 mph)
930mb 125° (from the SE) 75 knots (86 mph)
918mb 125° (from the SE) 69 knots (79 mph)
905mb 125° (from the SE) 69 knots (79 mph)
900mb 120° (from the ESE) 64 knots (74 mph)
844mb 120° (from the ESE) 37 knots (43 mph)

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Found this eyewall drop interesting:


Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters):
- Wind: 115° (from the ESE) at 81 knots (93 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth):
- Wind: 115° (from the ESE) at 78 knots (90 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 900mb to 964mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm):
- Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet)
- Wind: 100° (from the E) at 88 knots (101 mph)


Significant Wind Levels...


Level: Wind Direction / Wind Speed
966mb (Surface): Unavailable
964mb: 95° (from the E) / 77 knots (89 mph)
960mb: 90° (from the E) / 77 knots (89 mph)
955mb: 100° (from the E) / 97 knots (112 mph)
953mb: 105° (from the ESE) / 101 knots (116 mph)
942mb: 115° (from the ESE) / 94 knots (108 mph)
930mb: 125° (from the SE) / 75 knots (86 mph)
918mb: 125° (from the SE) / 69 knots (79 mph)
905mb: 125° (from the SE) / 69 knots (79 mph)
900mb: 120° (from the ESE) / 64 knots (74 mph)
844mb: 120° (from the ESE) / 37 knots (43 mph)
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


That really puts into perspective how large Alex is.
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will be closer to texas now but still northern mexico..hurricane force winds don't extend real far out yet...family in south texas was regretting extensive prep last nite. they will feel better about it this morning
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so for 24 hrs. it will continue to be in a weak steering pattern? so patrap and xcool called it right earlier.:) what does this mean? where will alex go from here? still tx/mx or further north? xcool what is your opinion on the steering pattern for alex and where do you feel it may go? could it be riding the coast? thanks in advance:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
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Sigh... every sensible member here who went to bed is missing this very significant change in possible intensity and track. I'm glad to see the NHC is "erring" on the northern side of the track right now.
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966. xcool
CRAZY storm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting victoriahurricane:
I wonder why the last mission stated that the eyewall was open to the North, but this time the eyewall is open to the south.


Because the north side opening rotated around to the south..

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Quoting xcool:
ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...BUT ALSO TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF ALEX ACROSS TEXAS MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS
MEANS ALEX IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TO RIDGES AND IN A WEAKER STEERING
FLOW REGIME THAT NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON IN THE SHORT TERM
its moving very slowly 7mph is like a fast crawl
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963. xcool
left curve BALL AT NHC NOT GOOD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE
RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
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30 knots in 24 hours more north.. yikes
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960. xcool
ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...BUT ALSO TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF ALEX ACROSS TEXAS MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS
MEANS ALEX IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TO RIDGES AND IN A WEAKER STEERING
FLOW REGIME THAT NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON IN THE SHORT TERM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
959. xcool
WOWOWOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Uhmmm this is worst than i expect 959mb CAT2 Hurricane hope we dont regret any life.
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I wonder why the last mission stated that the eyewall was open to the North, but this time the eyewall is open to the south.
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956. xcool
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300851
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

ALEX HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING BASED ON
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A SMALL EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 0842Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
961 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 82 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A RELIABLE SURFACE
WIND OF 62 KT AND A RAIN-CONTAMINATED PEAK WIND OF 71 KT. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WAS T4.5/77 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALEX HAS WOBBLED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND EVEN
BRIEFLY STALLED. HOWEVER...TRENDING THROUGH THE SATELLITE AND RECON
FIXES YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 290/06. UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT
00Z INDICATED MODEST 10-30 METER HEIGHT RISES FROM 700-400 MB
ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...BUT ALSO TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF ALEX ACROSS TEXAS MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS
MEANS ALEX IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TO RIDGES AND IN A WEAKER STEERING
FLOW REGIME THAT NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON
BRINGING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO
STEER ALEX ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THEN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING CHANGE IN THE 00Z AND 06 MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF
SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THIS MDOEL HAS GONE FROM
BEING THE PERSISTENT LEFT-MOST OF THE MODELS TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE MODEL SUITE...AND IT NOW HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO HWRF. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...
AND REMAINS NEAR THE EXTREME RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ALEX IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY OVER SOME
OF THE WARMEST UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...STEADY STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL SEEMS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE
RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 23.3N 95.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 23.8N 96.2W 80 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 24.3N 97.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 99.6W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/0600Z 24.4N 101.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting washingaway:
They are calling it 961mb
They're going with the dropsonde reading since that's an actual reading and not extrapolated. They dropped one at 23.3N 95.0W and that was the reading at the surface.
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 08:57Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 06

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 9Z on the 30th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 23.3N 95.0W
Location: 240 miles (386 km) to the SE (139) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
961mb (28.38 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2C (81.0F) 26.8C (80.2F) Unavailable
1000mb -358m (-1175 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 336m (1,102 ft) 25.6C (78.1F) 24.9C (76.8F) 350 (from the N) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 1,081m (3,547 ft) 22.4C (72.3F) 20.7C (69.3F) 65 (from the ENE) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 8:42Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 23.32N 94.98W
Splash Time: 8:43Z

Release Location: 23.33N 94.98W View map)
Release Time: 8:42:15Z

Splash Location: 23.32N 94.99W (

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 20 (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 959mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 167 gpm - 17 gpm (548 geo. feet - 56 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 360 (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20800

Height of the last reported wind: 15 geopotential meters

Rest of remarks section: 0 84351 (Our system could not determine how to decode this text.)


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
961mb (Surface) 27.2C (81.0F) 26.8C (80.2F)
850mb 22.4C (72.3F) 20.7C (69.3F)
843mb 21.4C (70.5F) 19.4C (66.9F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
961mb (Surface) Unavailable
959mb 45 (from the NE) 2 knots (2 mph)
941mb 10 (from the N) 1 knots (1 mph)
895mb 350 (from the N) 8 knots (9 mph)
891mb 30 (from the NNE) 5 knots (6 mph)
879mb 25 (from the NNE) 5 knots (6 mph)
843mb 75 (from the ENE) 6 knots (7 mph)


---

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951. xcool
drg0dOwnCountry I THINK SO LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 08:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 8:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°19'N 95°00'W (23.3167N 95.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (384 km) to the SE (139°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,075m (3,527ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 82kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 8:33:40Z

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Quoting washingaway:
They are calling it 961mb
It is still an 11mb pressure drop in 3 hours time which is still significant.
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Quoting xcool:


he look mad like get off me fool lmao

The rotation of ex 94L, is this concerning?
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Quoting Or4590:


OMG Pinhole eye!

LOL

٩(̾●̮̮̃̾•̃̾)۶
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946. xcool
he move more N
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
They are calling it 961mb
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Quoting lopaka001:
This is where the 959.4 is recorded..
The pin is the HH plane..



OMG Pinhole eye!

LOL
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HH now heading to check out the SW quadrant.
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942. xcool
washingaway yep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Katrina Lowest pressure 902 mbar (hPa; 26.64 inHg)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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