Alex building an eyewall, still not a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:34 PM GMT on June 29, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex is slowly building an eyewall, which is now more than 50% complete, according to recent satellite imagery and microwave images (Figure 1.) Satellite loops show a slot of dry air is spiraling into the center of the storm, and until this dry slot gets closed off, Alex will not be able to intensify significantly. Alex's heavy thunderstorms and low level spiral bands continue to slowly increase, but upper-level outflow is mediocre to the north and east, and absent elsewhere. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm and have not found any hurricane-force winds at the surface yet.


Figure 1. Microwave "radar in space" image taken at 10:11 am CDT Tuesday June 28, 2010, showing that Alex had built an eyewall a little more than 50% complete. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Impacts
Alex is already bringing bands of heavy rain to the coasts of Texas and Mexico, as seen on the Brownsville, Texas radar. Hurricane local statements with projections for how Alex will affect the coast are now being issued by the National Weather Service in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Since Alex is a large storm, it will have a storm surge that will affect most of the South Texas coast. NHC is giving a 40% - 60% chance of a storm surge of at least 3 feet affecting the Brownsville area, and 10% - 30% chance the surge will exceed 5 feet. In theory, a Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph can bring a storm surge of up to 8 - 9 feet to the South Texas coast (Figure 2.) However, Alex is now unlikely to get that strong, and the surge should be less. Flooding damage from the expected 6 - 12 inches of rain from Alex will also be a major concern, as will wind damage. The combined wind, surge, and flooding damage from 2008's Hurricane Dolly, which hit near Brownsville, were about $1.05 billion. Dolly was a Category 2 hurricane offshore that weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds when it made landfall. I expect Alex will be similar in its impacts to Dolly, though Alex's storm surge damage is likely to be greater. If Alex hits more than 50 miles south of the Texas border, as currently appears likely, the damage will be far less, since this region of the coast is relatively sparsely populated.


Figure 2. Maximum Water Depth (storm tide minus the elevation of the land it is passing over) computed using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. The "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of five feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is ten feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide, and thus shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph. For more information on storm surge, consult our detailed storm surge pages.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models confirm the faster movement of Alex to the coast, and residents in the affected areas now have 12 hours less to prepare for Alex's arrival than it seemed with yesterday's forecasts. Conditions will begin to deteriorate along the coast late tonight, so today is the day to finish preparations if you live near the Texas/Mexico border! The ridge that is steering Alex to the northwest is expected to strengthen today and Wednesday, which should push Alex on a more west-northwest and then westerly track on Wednesday. A few models even have Alex moving west-southwest by the time it makes landfall. The most northerly landfall location, near Brownsville, is predicted by the HWRF model.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 4am CDT (9 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 88% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 23% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

Corpus Christi, TX: 42% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.

La Pesco, MX: 37% tropical storm, 3% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 18% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 14% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 13% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is over a region of ocean with a warm, clockwise rotating Loop Current eddy that broke off from the Loop Current in July 2009 and moved west-southwest over the past 11 months. This eddy has moderately high total ocean heat content . Wind shear has fallen to a low 5 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to remain in the low range, below 10 knots, this afternoon and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and moderately high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane, but time is running out for it to be a Category 2 hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 79% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 4% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images show the amount of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico has decreased over the past day, though as I noted above, the dry slot wrapping into Alex's core is currently keeping the storm from closing off an eyewall. Dry air may turn out to be an increasing detriment to Alex on Wednesday as the storm approaches land. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. I don't expect Alex to stall out again, so slow motion leading to upwelling of cold water will probably not be a problem for Alex. The main issue limiting intensification will be the fact that Alex is so large, and it takes more time for a large storm to organize. Thus, I think Alex has only a 10% chance of intensifying into a major hurricane before landfall.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The last few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting the formation of a tropical disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday or Saturday that will move northwestward towards western Cuba. The GFS model, and the two models that use it for starting conditions, the GFDL and HWRF, are indicating the possibility that a weak extratropical storm may form along coastal Alabama this weekend. It is unlikely that such a storm would be over water long enough to transition to a tropical storm.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex's winds will not directly affect the oil slick location. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast to south winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Alex is currently bringing swells of 3 - 4 feet to the coastal regions impacted by the oil slick, and these swells will increase to 6 - 8 feet on Wednesday. Wave heights will increase to 5 - 7 feet on Wednesday. Alex is expected to bring a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet along the coast in the oil spill region. The swells and waves that will accompany these high water levels will act to push oil deep into the marshlands in some locations. The long range forecast for the oil slick region is uncertain, due to the possibility a weak area of low pressure might develop late this week along the remains of a cold front draped across the region.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Alex
2) A look ahead at what may happen the rest of hurricane season

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning by 9:30am CDT. Rob Carver is planning on doing a late-night update tonight.

Jeff Masters

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1993. CaneAddict
4:09 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting LightningCharmer:


Congratulations! I've waiting for this moment for ten years. You see this isn't just the first Atlantic basin hurricane of the year but the first of the decade! It's 2010. I envy you pal; oh how I envy you.


And first Hurricane in June since 1995
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1992. Daveg
4:08 AM GMT on June 30, 2010

Got to give the NHC folks credit again. Not only for a great forecast, but they mentioned they expected Alex to resume a WNW path, and I'll be damned, off he goes starting to move more WNW than just W.

Hats off to the NHC (seriously, not kidding).

And here's hoping that wherever Alex makes landfall, everyone is safe and damage is minimal.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
1991. USSINS
3:53 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
The radar failed, not the SFMR.
1990. listenerVT
3:43 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
I got this off the HH page on facebook...looks like they are gonna be heading out again.

This page is the official page of the 53rd WRS "Hurricane Hunters." Check here for the most accurate info about what we are doing. Next mission will be heading out ahead of schedule due to a radar malfunction on an earlier mission.


Sweet! Thanks. That's excellent news.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5484
1989. KATRINABILOXIGIRL
3:39 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
I got this off the HH page on facebook...looks like they are gonna be heading out again.

This page is the official page of the 53rd WRS "Hurricane Hunters." Check here for the most accurate info about what we are doing. Next mission will be heading out ahead of schedule due to a radar malfunction on an earlier mission.
Member Since: July 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
1988. StormGoddess
3:33 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Hurricane Alex (Alejandro).
Photobucket
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
1987. LightningCharmer
3:24 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting MrstormX:
Hmmm... I just realized I was the first person on this blog who posted the first "hurricane" advisory this year, and maybe the first "hurricane" discussion as well but I will have to look. Anyways that was a random speech, but exciting for me anyways lol


Congratulations! I've waiting for this moment for ten years. You see this isn't just the first Atlantic basin hurricane of the year but the first of the decade! It's 2010. I envy you pal; oh how I envy you.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
1986. Hardcoreweather2010
3:13 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Surfs up
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1985. aspectre
3:08 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Like to say THANKS to all who responded to my cry for help.

Nope, ShenValleyFlyFish, haven't touched anything inre java or javascript. Been so long that I did anything other than approve an update, I doubt that I could even find where to make changes to 'em without asking.

PlugIns are working just fine, bappit, though I keep the browser so lean that again I haven't looked at them since install.

Oddly, Orcasystems, you may have been closest to right. I have a flaky touchpad that occasionally triggers links just from rolling the cursor over them.
And I could have accidentally triggered a SignOut. Though I don't understand how I could have posted after signing out.

Try shutting down Firefox entirely, jamesrainier, then rebooting. I had multiple windows up, and Firefox began working again after shutting them all and a reboot.

Then again Firefox coulda felt threatened by the possibility of competion ;-D I hadda shut down the windows during a download of Chrome.
And when I booted up Firefox, it worked just fine. Maybe better... the page looks subtly more readable.
And I'm posting outta Chrome just to giv'er a spin. But back to Firefox after this tryout.

And THANKS again for responding.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1984. MiamiHurricanes09
3:06 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1983. taco2me61
3:03 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Taco, I'm trying to stay updated on upper Gulf (Galveston/Houston) - mind pointing me to what you are looking at?
ok
give me a min....

Taco :o)
new Blog
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3241
1982. scott39
3:03 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


There are two highs at work there now, one from the East and the other that came down from the 4 corners region. The one to the East has relaxed a bit but the other has built towards it some so overall the sterring is now still to the West.

Alex is a little slower than earlier today but based upon the update still moving towards landfall in Mexico.
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
1981. kmanislander
3:02 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting mahep1911:
Kman

You post some of the best information out there. thanks


You're welcome
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15761
1980. kmanislander
3:01 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, So you feel like the high is strong enough to push Alex on shore? I live here in Al. an the Met said the high has lifted over us to the NE.


There are two highs at work there now, one from the East and the other that came down from the 4 corners region. The one to the East has relaxed a bit but the other has built towards it some so overall the sterring is now still to the West.

Alex is a little slower than earlier today but based upon the update still moving towards landfall in Mexico.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15761
1979. truecajun
3:01 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting GTcooliebai:

I like your thinking here.


thanks. i like to keep it simple. otherwise i forget.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1978. mahep1911
3:00 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Kman

You post some of the best information out there. thanks
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 793
1977. mtyweatherfan90
3:00 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting MrstormX:
Does anybody have information about the population, urban centers etc. that Alex is heading for in Mexico.


La Pesca:
Small town, basically lives from tourism, hotels and fishing. Might be really close from ground zero.

Cd. Victoria: 1/4 million inhabitants, lies next to Sierra Madre Mountain Range in west-southwest Tamaulipas.

Monterrey: Northern Mexico's largest urban center. 4 million inhabitants in the met. area. about 150 miles south-southwest of Laredo, Texas. Prone to flooding areas in some districts. Surrounded by mountains and the Sierra Madre Mountain Range. My spot!


Tamaulipas State



Nuevo Le%uFFFDn State
Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334
1976. SamTeam
3:00 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Dr. Masters has a new blog up!
Member Since: September 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1975. MiamiHurricanes09
3:00 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
NEW BLOG! It's only 2 sentences long though, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1974. Patrap
3:00 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Keeps that newer Big Ol Dude in View atmo.

Cuz the odds r we may be yakking about it real soon again.

Hurricane ALex is a Dog that is Looking to Bite someone..and its off the chain.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1973. leo305
3:00 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
slowing down on satellite..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1972. Chicklit
2:59 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Hi Everybody. Am sure this was posted before, but it's new to me! From the 10 p.m. NHC Forecast Advisory,

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO LANDFALL. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 33 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...I.E. A 30-KT INCREASE OVER 24 HOURS.

HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX STRENGTHENING BEYOND CATEGORY ONE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

Wish I could stay up and watch it unfold.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11186
1971. truecajun
2:59 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


There is more to the explanation but I figured that was enough for now LOL


yes. that is just enough for us newbies. we all say, "ohhhhhhh." and feel more enlightened.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1970. MiamiHurricanes09
2:59 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting AllStar17:
11:00 pm NHC Advisory
**STORM TRACKER UPDATE
What do you think of the red?
I love it!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1969. winter123
2:58 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
new blog
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
1968. Patrap
2:58 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Hurricane ALEX Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1967. atmoaggie
2:58 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
That deeper cell near center is persisting. Sticks around, could give more eyewall structure.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1966. GTcooliebai
2:58 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting truecajun:


Highs are like walls and lows are like valleys. they "fall" into the valleys and avoid the walls. if there are 2 highs, what's in between, a valley. that's my easy way of remembering. i know it's not very scientific, but it's easy

I like your thinking here.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1965. kmanislander
2:58 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting truecajun:
kman, yours is much more eloquent.


There is more to the explanation but I figured that was enough for now LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15761
1964. scott39
2:58 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


A stall happens for more than one reason. The steering winds can weaken to the N so that the storm has nothing to push or pull it one way or another. Alternatively, sometimes a system will start a motion in a particular direction and high pressure will build in above it to the N and block it making any further progress. It will then stall and creep to the Western edge of the high before lifting to the N again. Sometime the high is strong enough to force it onshore to the West such as is happening now with Alex.

A "weakness" in the steering is when you have light steering winds to the N of a system due to either a gap between two high pressure systems or an upper low retreating to the East and a high from the West lagging behind. This causes a " weakness" in the atmosphere and all storms want to go N as a natural tendency due to the rotation of the earth. If there is no high pressure to the N to force a storm West it will naturally try to make its way through the gap to the N and then recurve to the East.
Thanks, So you feel like the high is strong enough to push Alex on shore? I live here in Al. an the Met said the high has lifted over us to the NE.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6743
1963. AustinTXWeather
2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Taco, I'm trying to stay updated on upper Gulf (Galveston/Houston) - mind pointing me to what you are looking at?
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
1962. Patrap
2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1961. CybrTeddy
2:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Alex now has an ACE of 3.64.

That is higher than all but 3 of 2007's and 2009's storms.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
1960. Patrap
2:56 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting centex:
Hate to mention it but stall was not forecasted. Maybe the last stall was forecast, meaning slow forecast but not this. Many times they change direction after stall. This was definitely not forecast to stall so something has changed, that is all I know.
9mph to the west isnt a stall.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1959. angiest
2:56 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting truecajun:


i figured there was an explantion. it was just too easy.


I edited the post. The last couple of frames look like they show northward moving storms, but there is still not enough to see. I am not booted into Windows right now or I would use grlevel3 to look at it.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1958. AllStar17
2:56 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
11:00 pm NHC Advisory
**STORM TRACKER UPDATE
What do you think of the red?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
1957. truecajun
2:55 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
kman, yours is much more eloquent.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1956. atmoaggie
2:55 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Without recon data they can only guess how large the hurricane windfield is.
Well, these guys use the cloud drift and a couple of other data sources and known behaviors of a system to analyze a surface wind. But, I do think they scale to a max surface wind speed given by the NHC. (from the b-deck files on the ftp server)



I do not think they use any HH obs for this wind field analysis.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1955. centex
2:55 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Hate to mention it but stall was not forecasted. Maybe the last stall was forecast, meaning slow forecast but not this. Many times they change direction after stall. This was definitely not forecast to stall so something has changed, that is all I know.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3230
1954. pvbeachbum
2:55 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
elConando- we got over an inch here in Jacksonville today offa those bands!


Lucky you Aqua - out here at the beach we only got thunder again, but not a drop of rain! We haven't had any rain here in I don't know how long!
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 280
1953. AustinTXWeather
2:54 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We previously thought Alex was stalling but in reality it just slowed down in forward motion (considerably). Another thing to note is that Alex is no longer moving NW or WNW, but actually W.


Thanks for the update. Was just noticing on satellite that Brownsville is getting some light level outer bands.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
1952. truecajun
2:54 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


A stall happens for more than one reason. The steering winds can weaken to the N so that the storm has nothing to push or pull it one way or another. Alternatively, sometimes a system will start a motion in a particular direction and high pressure will build in above it to the N and block it making any further progress. It will then stall and creep to the Western edge of the high before lifting to the N again. Sometime the high is strong enough to force it onshore to the West such as is happening now with Alex.

A "weakness" in the steering is when you have light steering winds to the N of a system due to either a gap between two high pressure systems or an upper low retreating to the East and a high from the West lagging behind. This causes a " weakness" in the atmosphere and all storms want to go N as a natural tendency due to the rotation of the earth. If there is no high pressure to the N to force a storm West it will naturally try to make its way through the gap to the N and then recurve to the East.


Highs are like walls and lows are like valleys. they "fall" into the valleys and avoid the walls. if there are 2 highs, what's in between, a valley. that's my easy way of remembering. i know it's not very scientific, but it's easy
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1951. whipster
2:54 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
1926:

The primary concern right now is storm surge of a very large system. They don't want people treating it as a "typical" storm and drowning in water two or three times deeper than expected. Additionally, one of the NHC spokespersons said people should always prepare as though a storm was going to be a category or two worse than the forecast, because of the difficulty of forecasting intensity.

The size of the warning area is reasonable.


That area of Mexico is mostly farmland, and actually a few foothills of the Eastern Sierra Madre. There will be some flooding in the river valleys I'm sure.
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
1950. AllStar17
2:53 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
11:00 pm NHC Advisory
**GRAPHICS UPDATE
What do you think of the red?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
1949. Patrap
2:53 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Tides and rain and Squalls will be here seems.

WUnderful.

I best get Sparklers instead of Sky rockets seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1948. gordydunnot
2:52 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Here is my opinion a true hurricane needs an eye so you'll be happy but I say show me the eye wall.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
1947. GTcooliebai
2:52 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm still expecting a category 2 hurricane at landfall over Mexico.

I'm going with a 100 mph storm.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1946. MiamiHurricanes09
2:52 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Without recon data they can only guess how large the hurricane windfield is.
Well it certainly isn't 200 miles or so as the hurricane warning is depicting.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1945. aquak9
2:52 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Stall? I think Alex is just in SHOCK at finally being called a hurricane!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25764
1944. 1900hurricane
2:51 AM GMT on June 30, 2010
Quoting taco2me61:
Wow Pat you are under a Flood Watch untill Thursday Night.... Looks to be bad along the North Gulf Coast with very Heavy Rain and possible Water Spouts....

Taco :o)

The rain is definitely expected to be with us for the next few days, thats for sure!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.