Alex building an eyewall, still not a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:34 PM GMT on June 29, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex is slowly building an eyewall, which is now more than 50% complete, according to recent satellite imagery and microwave images (Figure 1.) Satellite loops show a slot of dry air is spiraling into the center of the storm, and until this dry slot gets closed off, Alex will not be able to intensify significantly. Alex's heavy thunderstorms and low level spiral bands continue to slowly increase, but upper-level outflow is mediocre to the north and east, and absent elsewhere. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm and have not found any hurricane-force winds at the surface yet.


Figure 1. Microwave "radar in space" image taken at 10:11 am CDT Tuesday June 28, 2010, showing that Alex had built an eyewall a little more than 50% complete. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Impacts
Alex is already bringing bands of heavy rain to the coasts of Texas and Mexico, as seen on the Brownsville, Texas radar. Hurricane local statements with projections for how Alex will affect the coast are now being issued by the National Weather Service in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Since Alex is a large storm, it will have a storm surge that will affect most of the South Texas coast. NHC is giving a 40% - 60% chance of a storm surge of at least 3 feet affecting the Brownsville area, and 10% - 30% chance the surge will exceed 5 feet. In theory, a Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph can bring a storm surge of up to 8 - 9 feet to the South Texas coast (Figure 2.) However, Alex is now unlikely to get that strong, and the surge should be less. Flooding damage from the expected 6 - 12 inches of rain from Alex will also be a major concern, as will wind damage. The combined wind, surge, and flooding damage from 2008's Hurricane Dolly, which hit near Brownsville, were about $1.05 billion. Dolly was a Category 2 hurricane offshore that weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds when it made landfall. I expect Alex will be similar in its impacts to Dolly, though Alex's storm surge damage is likely to be greater. If Alex hits more than 50 miles south of the Texas border, as currently appears likely, the damage will be far less, since this region of the coast is relatively sparsely populated.


Figure 2. Maximum Water Depth (storm tide minus the elevation of the land it is passing over) computed using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. The "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of five feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is ten feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide, and thus shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph. For more information on storm surge, consult our detailed storm surge pages.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models confirm the faster movement of Alex to the coast, and residents in the affected areas now have 12 hours less to prepare for Alex's arrival than it seemed with yesterday's forecasts. Conditions will begin to deteriorate along the coast late tonight, so today is the day to finish preparations if you live near the Texas/Mexico border! The ridge that is steering Alex to the northwest is expected to strengthen today and Wednesday, which should push Alex on a more west-northwest and then westerly track on Wednesday. A few models even have Alex moving west-southwest by the time it makes landfall. The most northerly landfall location, near Brownsville, is predicted by the HWRF model.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 4am CDT (9 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 88% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 23% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

Corpus Christi, TX: 42% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.

La Pesco, MX: 37% tropical storm, 3% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 18% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 14% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 13% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is over a region of ocean with a warm, clockwise rotating Loop Current eddy that broke off from the Loop Current in July 2009 and moved west-southwest over the past 11 months. This eddy has moderately high total ocean heat content . Wind shear has fallen to a low 5 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to remain in the low range, below 10 knots, this afternoon and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and moderately high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane, but time is running out for it to be a Category 2 hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 79% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 4% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images show the amount of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico has decreased over the past day, though as I noted above, the dry slot wrapping into Alex's core is currently keeping the storm from closing off an eyewall. Dry air may turn out to be an increasing detriment to Alex on Wednesday as the storm approaches land. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. I don't expect Alex to stall out again, so slow motion leading to upwelling of cold water will probably not be a problem for Alex. The main issue limiting intensification will be the fact that Alex is so large, and it takes more time for a large storm to organize. Thus, I think Alex has only a 10% chance of intensifying into a major hurricane before landfall.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The last few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting the formation of a tropical disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday or Saturday that will move northwestward towards western Cuba. The GFS model, and the two models that use it for starting conditions, the GFDL and HWRF, are indicating the possibility that a weak extratropical storm may form along coastal Alabama this weekend. It is unlikely that such a storm would be over water long enough to transition to a tropical storm.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex's winds will not directly affect the oil slick location. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast to south winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Alex is currently bringing swells of 3 - 4 feet to the coastal regions impacted by the oil slick, and these swells will increase to 6 - 8 feet on Wednesday. Wave heights will increase to 5 - 7 feet on Wednesday. Alex is expected to bring a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet along the coast in the oil spill region. The swells and waves that will accompany these high water levels will act to push oil deep into the marshlands in some locations. The long range forecast for the oil slick region is uncertain, due to the possibility a weak area of low pressure might develop late this week along the remains of a cold front draped across the region.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Alex
2) A look ahead at what may happen the rest of hurricane season

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning by 9:30am CDT. Rob Carver is planning on doing a late-night update tonight.

Jeff Masters

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It can hit MX and TX can still get the worst of the hit being ont he "dirty" side.
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Almost appears as if the forecast landfall has shifted slightly south (maybe 20 miles, if that).
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 291454
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER AND AN APPARENT DRY SLOT WEST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 70 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...
THE LATTER ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 982 MB.
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...AND POOR ELSEWHERE.


4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 29
Location: 23.2°N 94.0°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That was Hurricane Dean from Space Shuttle Endeavour during STS-118.


hmmmm, weird. It said rita. Sorry...
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Quoting IKE:


Hasn't made landfall yet....but it does look like a Mexico landfall.
Chances of a Mexico landfall are increasing as a upper level ridge to the north is setting in strong. Doubt it will make it to Mexico now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21144
Mexico landfall doesn't mean Texas is off the hook. There could be serious flooding issues over the next 3 to 5 days.
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Oh no... Jeff is going on vacation!
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I know when DMax hits in terms of the portion of the day, but in which hours will DiurnalMaximum hit Alex in terms of CDTime?
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234. IKE
"THE CENTER OF ALEX
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT."......

Could be making landfall tomorrow afternoon.
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1996 was a bad year for us here in Cape Fear. We had Bertha come through and loosen up the pines, so that Fran could come through later and take them all out.
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SO he is still moving NW. On the graphic a little bit agi it sure looked like he was blowing dead west.
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texas been getting too many bullets lately.

but it's not over til the fat weather lady sings

never said never
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hurricane Rita 2005



That was Hurricane Dean from Space Shuttle Endeavour during STS-118.
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229. Daveg

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
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Do we expect any further northen shift with Alex or is he pretty much on his set course? what does everyone think?
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227. IKE
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Texas dodged a bullet, and the NHC, once again, has been proven' impeccably accurate, like always, right, Ike? Remember the wishcasters saying that Alex was either heading up towards TX or LA? What a joke. Anyways, next, right, Ike?


Hasn't made landfall yet....but it does look like a Mexico landfall.
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Quoting GlobalWarming:
Texas dodged a bullet, and the NHC, once again, has been proven' impeccably accurate, like always, right, Ike? Remember the wishcasters saying that Alex was either heading up towards TX or LA? What a joke. Anyways, next, right, Ike?


???
It is a shame that you just said that. It hasn't even made landfall yet, and you are writing it off. Plus, Texas is still going to get some of the worst Alex has to offer on the northern and right side.
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225. Daveg

Sorry, just really can't agree on due west yet. JMO.

Link


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Quoting cg2916:


No, I have a question!

How is the Gulf of Guinea doing cooling-wise?
I'll e-mail you after 6:00PM when I'm on my main computer.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21144
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Texas dodged a bullet, and the NHC, once again, has been proven' impeccably accurate, like always, right, Ike? Remember the wishcasters saying that Alex was either heading up towards TX or LA? What a joke. Anyways, next, right, Ike?


I guess with the next storm we can all just wait for the NHC tracking to come out and forget the rest...
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Ok, so my guess of an 80mph hurricane was off... and much to my surprise the motion is still NW!!! What are they seeing?
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Not much to update, but for the rest of this season. I will keep track of all of the vortex reports for any systems..




AOI

AOI

AOI

Hurricane Hunter Data

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
hurricane faith is the biggest storm on record
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Faith
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.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
atcha fa lie ah
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok? Guess I'm off to lurking...


No, I have a question!

How is the Gulf of Guinea doing cooling-wise?
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216. shauntanner (Admin)
Questions for Dr. Masters' show can be posted here.

You can listen to the show here.

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
Probably won't be a hurricane until 11PM, MAYBE 5AM, but it's doubtful it'll take that long. Since it's making landfall tomorrow, it'll probably only have time to make it to minimal CAT1
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correction.. Frederick was in 1979 not 1980
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 292035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...



SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED....AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOMETIME
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21144
I dropped my blade a notch on my lawnmower last evening, figured with all the rain coming mind as well. Not like I'm gonna burn it.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Looks like a solid WNW movement now... no question about it. Next advisory will update to indicate that. Only question would be hurricane or no?
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a-chaf-a-lie-ya...lol

it's ok Doc...I live here and need an interpreter sometimes :)
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I fully expect it to become one but I was trying to ask a question that many might benefit from.


Well the dry air will probably stop it from being a major, but a can is highly likely.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Orcasystems:

That be your house :)


lol, ok thanks :)
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Does not get more WESTward moving than that.
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Hurricane Rita 2005

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Quoting Orcasystems:

That be your house :)


LOL, ok thanks :)
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Quoting mydiapersarefull:
Hurricane Fran busted down my door and ran off with a lot of my stuff....


Sorry to hear that. I lucked out the few I have been thru. I rode out Katrina on the MS gulf coast, Frederick in MS as well in 1980 ( i think) Ivn and then Ike and have been blessed so far.
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Quoting MrstormX:


It will be a hurricane, just don't expect a major one. Heck why would anyone want a major one?


I fully expect it to become one but I was trying to ask a question that many might benefit from. And the question was to Dr. Masters.
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it take a thousand marcos to build alex up.
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01L/TS.A/CX
MARK
23.0N/94.1W
DUE WEST
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Quoting MrstormX:
It'll be a hurricane at this advisory im pretty sure.


AL, 01, 2010062918, , BEST, 0, 230N, 936W, 60, 981, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 30, 15, 20, 1006, 250, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D,

No hurricane at this advisory
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000
WTNT21 KNHC 292035
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 94.0W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 94.0W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.9N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.2N 99.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.5N 103.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 94.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting Daveg:
So my question is, how much longer, if at all, till Alex slams on the breaks and turns West?



Looks like it's going almost due west now (not just a wobble IMO). See visible sat:

Visible Alex Loop
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Quoting primadonnagirl:


not strong enough I suppose
Ok? Guess I'm off to lurking...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21144
Hurricane Fran busted down my door and ran off with a lot of my stuff....
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
it is really cool to be able to listen to dr masters while on the blog
yes it is :) even more so while a Cane is in the Gulf...(well, not oficially a Cane)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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