Alex Slowly Gains Strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:35 AM GMT on June 29, 2010

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Hello, it's Dr. Rob Carver substituting for Jeff on the late shift.

As of the 0100 EDT advisory, Alex is 475 miles SE of Brownsville TX moving NNW at 8 mph. The advisory wind speed is 65 mph with a minimum central pressure of 985 mb. The most recent vortex fix was at 1225EDT with an unchanged pressure reading. Alex is expected to take a turn to the NW and make landfall just south of Brownsville late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. The government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning from the mouth of the Rio Grande south to La Cruz. NHC has hoisted the hurricane warning flag from the Rio Grande north to Baffin Bay. A tropical storm warning extends from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor. Alex is expected to expand in size so it will be much larger than Hurricane Dolly, which was the last storm to affect the region in 2008.

Hurricane Local Statements are now being issued by the Brownsville and Corpus Christi NWS offices. These statements provide a detailed look at how Alex will affect the region and summarize how local emergency management is responding to the situation.

Alex has three different ways to negatively impact the Rio Grande Valley: storm surge, heavy rains, and strong winds.

Risk of Storm Surge
NHC is forecasting a storm surge of 3-5 feet along the coast north of where Alex makes landfall. The exact details of the surge's extent depend on where Alex makes landfall and how big it gets while it is over the open water. I've include a plot of the statistical storm surge forecast product. Unless Alex refuses to make it's left turn, I don't think there's a chance of storm surge north of Port O'Connor.

Plot of experimental storm surge forecast.

Threat from Rain
NHC thinks 5 to 10 inches of rain over southern Texas/northern Mexico is possible when Alex makes landfall. This is why the Brownsville office thinks the primary threat from Alex will be inland flooding in areas with poor drainage.

Alex has a history of producing torrential amounts of rain as shown by this estimate of rainfall during Alex's passage over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 27, 2010 using data from the Climate Prediction Center.

Threat from Wind
Alex is currently forecast to reach hurricane status. There will likely be hurricane force winds along the coast where Alex makes landfall. The current hurricane wind probabilities show that Brownsville has a 77% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds and a 18% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds. Corpus Christi has a 44 % chance of tropical storm winds and a 4% chance of hurricane force winds. There is also the possibility of tornadoes forming in outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall.

The Curious Incident of the Hurricane Dynamical Models
One thing that strikes me as odd about Alex is that neither the GFDL nor the HWRF have been intensifying the storm into a hurricane in the past few model runs. This is intriguing because Alex is already a strong tropical storm. It will bear watching to see if GFDL/HWRF continue this pattern for future storms.

Next Update
Jeff will post an entry sometime this morning, and I'll have another entry late Tuesday night.

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446. RJT185 1:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
How's the MJO doing these days??



we ran it overe by a cow
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no.....not 4th of july!!!! lol
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460. MahFL
The torch might float, but humans don't....well not untill they have decomposed a bit and the trapped gasses bring em up.....don't drown...turn around.......
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 291153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 92.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR


MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

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Quoting StormJunkie:


Over the past 6-12 hours it has shifted to NW...ANd maybe even a little W of NW. One good thing about Xtrap is it never lies.


Yea yeah I know but it's officially moving NNW, I go by official data. And I was disagreeing with this apocalyps guy..
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alex is getting stronger, wouldn't shock me if he became a cat 3 before land fall.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


apocalyps is wrong because he's expecting a NE motion over the next six hours, yet it's moving NW already..


NO,i expect a NNE motion for a period of at least six hours starting somewhere tomorrow.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
Quoting rattnroll:


Hey I am at Stennis LOL and yes it has rained a butt ton


Holy Cow! He lives! Hey Ratt, how's it goin? Getting ready for football season?
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Quoting connie1976:
Ike...you here....you will be able to answer my question...

382. connie1976 1:09 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
Hey all! Is there anything else that might develope in the next week or two? The NHC has done really well with this storm so far...don't ya think? ----oh, and we still need rain here in south florida please...



Connie do you live in southern florida? As of right now precip chances look minimal across the southeast as dry sinking air is moving in ahead of an upper level disturbance in the bahamas.
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Its all about the "U"!!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Starting when? It's moving NNW right now..


Over the past 6-12 hours it has shifted to NW...ANd maybe even a little W of NW. One good thing about Xtrap is it never lies.
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Quoting Tropicaddict:
I find it interesting that the Doc said, "NHC thinks 5 to 10 inches of rain over southern Texas/northern Mexico is possible when Alex makes landfall."

The amount of rain we've received here on the MS coast yesterday and this morning seems like more than that. One of my friends here at Stennis had 2.64 inches in 2 hours recorded according to his rain gauge.


Hey I am at Stennis LOL and yes it has rained a butt ton
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449. 7544
Quoting connie1976:
someone....anyone.... :) :)

382. connie1976 1:09 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
Hey all! Is there anything else that might develope in the next week or two? The NHC has done really well with this storm so far...don't ya think? ----oh, and we still need rain here in south florida please...



check the gfs it brings a storm to so fla for the week of the 4th july hmmm

Link
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That fool comes out every time there is a storm.
Storms bring out trolls. Simple fact.


That is how we know a storm is approaching...
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How's the MJO doing these days??
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 252
Quoting MahFL:


er what ?....Alex is moving NNW, and maybe a touch NW now. NE is is proberbly the false reading of a sat loop.


apocalyps is wrong because he's expecting a NE motion over the next six hours, yet it's moving NW already..
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Thanks CyberTeddy..... :) :)
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How funny. Now NOGAPS is the northern outlier. HWRF finally went south again. I'm still thinking a tad north of Brownsville (previously thinking closer to Corpus) but I am getting more confident in the forecast. Not completely letting my guard down but I've seen *enough* consistency in the models to believe extreme northern Mexico or deep South Texas.
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Interesting tracking map
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tomorrow NNE motion
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alex is moving north I think, I truly don't think he will follow orders.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


I'll add a hearty Amen to that. Was visiting my brother down in Tidewater area of Va when a storm cam through and knocked out the power. First thing he did was break out one of those headlamps for each of us. You can use both hands to do what you are about. Lasted long enough that he broke out his generator. That man is PREPAIRED after loosing power for almost a month.


It is also a very good idea to have a Coast Guard approved Marine Flashlight. These flashlights are submersable. They can be set to automatically pulse the international SOS beacon, hands free. They also float. They can be found at Marine Supply stores and online via a google search.
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I live in Corpus Christi and the news this morning was telling everyone we'll expect some rain but nothing drastic. Those that boarded up yesterday evening and already taking down the boards this morning due to the latest announcements from our local anchors. We are being warned for “moderate” wind, but nothing worse than a strong thunderstorm.

It really is amazing how much they are downplaying this and giving an “in the clear” message to folks down here….scary.
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437. MahFL
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Starting when? It's moving NNW right now..


er what ?....Alex is moving NNW, and maybe a touch NW now. NE is is proberbly the false reading of a sat loop.
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Quoting connie1976:
someone....anyone.... :) :)

382. connie1976 1:09 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
Hey all! Is there anything else that might develope in the next week or two? The NHC has done really well with this storm so far...don't ya think? ----oh, and we still need rain here in south florida please...



I think we might see some action off the East coast the next few weeks, and the Cape Verde islands too. July looks to be active.
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Anyways, check in later, my plants are dying of thirst on the EC.FL coast. Have to go salt'em a bit with my high-ph "artesian well-water". #$%%^#@
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Moving NW
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someone....anyone.... :) :)

382. connie1976 1:09 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
Hey all! Is there anything else that might develope in the next week or two? The NHC has done really well with this storm so far...don't ya think? ----oh, and we still need rain here in south florida please...

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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
WOW!!!!!! Alex has swallowed up the entire gulf this sucka is huge.


And already hurricanestrenght.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I agree, however I do believe Alex is going to go a little more north than predicted. Alex wasn't suppose to speed up like it just did.. then again it wasn't suppose to stall out either.


Yes, I believe it was supposed to stall.
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outflow channel to the southern side of the storm. Outflow cirrus canopy evident on the eastern side of the system. Outflow cirrus trying to develop on the western side of the COC as well. Spiral banding developing well on the western side of the system.
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Quoting apocalyps:
I am expecting a NE motion for at least 6 hours.


Starting when? It's moving NNW right now..
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Info I have seen previously, but do not have a link:


"The initial motion is typically computed with an averaging period over the previous 6, 12, 18, or possibly even 24 hours. An interval of 6 to 12 hours is best if known changes in the track are occurring (e.g., like recurvature), but a longer interval may be chosen if the center location is uncertain."

Sorry, I pulled the wrong name from my memory. Thank you!
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WOW!!!!!! Alex has swallowed up the entire gulf this sucka is huge.
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Quoting guygee:
Well I'm not saying people should let their guard down or stop watching...appreciate your posts.


yes indeed gg..ALEX has some navigating to do yet as he slowly strengthens today.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I agree, however I do believe Alex is going to go a little more north than predicted. Alex wasn't suppose to speed up like it just did.. then again it wasn't suppose to stall out either.


It's stalled when it was supposed to speed and it sped when it was supposed to slow, stall and turn W?
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I am expecting a NE motion for at least 6 hours.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
Thanks to CyclonicVogage and James SA for your answers as well!
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Quoting Patrap:

I just post um..
Never discount Climo and the Storms motion thru time.
As we get closer to a solution..the pkgs will cluster.

Right now..they aint.
And one has to be aware of that.
Well I'm not saying people should let their guard down or stop watching...appreciate your posts.
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Quoting Patrap:
1215 UTC



Alex is a nasty looking young man. No matter where he makes land, All of Texas is gonna feel it.
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Ike...you here....you will be able to answer my question...

382. connie1976 1:09 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
Hey all! Is there anything else that might develope in the next week or two? The NHC has done really well with this storm so far...don't ya think? ----oh, and we still need rain here in south florida please...

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Quoting hurricane23:


Yea ok.. I already see evidence of the ridge building in toward Alex. I feel confident in the TPC track now that gulf stream info has been injested into the models yesterday.


I agree, however I do believe Alex is going to go a little more north than predicted. Alex wasn't suppose to speed up like it just did.. then again it wasn't suppose to stall out either.
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1215 UTC

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I find it interesting that the Doc said, "NHC thinks 5 to 10 inches of rain over southern Texas/northern Mexico is possible when Alex makes landfall."

The amount of rain we've received here on the MS coast yesterday and this morning seems like more than that. One of my friends here at Stennis had 2.64 inches in 2 hours recorded according to his rain gauge.
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Quoting apocalyps:


That ridge cannot even push a rabbit in his hole.


Yea ok.. I already see evidence of the ridge building in toward Alex. I feel confident in the TPC track now that gulf stream info has been injested into the models yesterday.
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Quoting swlaaggie:


Ah, never mind. Have a good day. Smile!


lol good thinking
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That fool comes out every time there is a storm.
Storms bring out trolls. Simple fact.
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Quoting divdog:
whats a shame is the outrageous statements you make without any support.


He's a troll dude. Let it go.

CybrTeddy, I couldn't agree with you more, it sure doesn't look like Alex is about to hang a hard left. I'm no met, just an observer tho...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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