Alex Slowly Gains Strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:35 AM GMT on June 29, 2010

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Hello, it's Dr. Rob Carver substituting for Jeff on the late shift.

As of the 0100 EDT advisory, Alex is 475 miles SE of Brownsville TX moving NNW at 8 mph. The advisory wind speed is 65 mph with a minimum central pressure of 985 mb. The most recent vortex fix was at 1225EDT with an unchanged pressure reading. Alex is expected to take a turn to the NW and make landfall just south of Brownsville late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. The government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning from the mouth of the Rio Grande south to La Cruz. NHC has hoisted the hurricane warning flag from the Rio Grande north to Baffin Bay. A tropical storm warning extends from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor. Alex is expected to expand in size so it will be much larger than Hurricane Dolly, which was the last storm to affect the region in 2008.

Hurricane Local Statements are now being issued by the Brownsville and Corpus Christi NWS offices. These statements provide a detailed look at how Alex will affect the region and summarize how local emergency management is responding to the situation.

Alex has three different ways to negatively impact the Rio Grande Valley: storm surge, heavy rains, and strong winds.

Risk of Storm Surge
NHC is forecasting a storm surge of 3-5 feet along the coast north of where Alex makes landfall. The exact details of the surge's extent depend on where Alex makes landfall and how big it gets while it is over the open water. I've include a plot of the statistical storm surge forecast product. Unless Alex refuses to make it's left turn, I don't think there's a chance of storm surge north of Port O'Connor.

Plot of experimental storm surge forecast.

Threat from Rain
NHC thinks 5 to 10 inches of rain over southern Texas/northern Mexico is possible when Alex makes landfall. This is why the Brownsville office thinks the primary threat from Alex will be inland flooding in areas with poor drainage.

Alex has a history of producing torrential amounts of rain as shown by this estimate of rainfall during Alex's passage over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 27, 2010 using data from the Climate Prediction Center.

Threat from Wind
Alex is currently forecast to reach hurricane status. There will likely be hurricane force winds along the coast where Alex makes landfall. The current hurricane wind probabilities show that Brownsville has a 77% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds and a 18% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds. Corpus Christi has a 44 % chance of tropical storm winds and a 4% chance of hurricane force winds. There is also the possibility of tornadoes forming in outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall.

The Curious Incident of the Hurricane Dynamical Models
One thing that strikes me as odd about Alex is that neither the GFDL nor the HWRF have been intensifying the storm into a hurricane in the past few model runs. This is intriguing because Alex is already a strong tropical storm. It will bear watching to see if GFDL/HWRF continue this pattern for future storms.

Next Update
Jeff will post an entry sometime this morning, and I'll have another entry late Tuesday night.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Convection really flaring in Alex atm.



Just waiting for an eye to become visible.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so guys when is 95L coming I see that wave that is comming off africa is that the one or what


I've seen you ask this question several times. Were not psychic, so who knows when 95L is coming.
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Convection really flaring in Alex atm.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting primadonnagirl:
i got all my batteries


But have you got all your marbles? jk
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ALEX Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 1200 UTC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting Patrap:
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast (using WW3)


Thanks Pat! That doesn't sit well for the oil clean up now does it. Yikes!
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New Video Blog Posted
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Quoting extreme236:
Still not a hurricane yet

AL, 01, 2010062912, , BEST, 0, 225N, 927W, 60, 983, TS


Ofcourse its a hurricane.At least 80Mph winds.
They are lowering it down for the markets.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
Recon just found 982.5 mb in Alex.
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This thing once again looks pathetic on satellite. Every bit of progress that it appeared to make last night in filling in its circulation has been squandered, and even the huge dry slot hasn't been eliminated. I for one have had enough of this sad system. Ever since it was 93L, it steadfastly refused to take advantage of good conditions. Its most impressive moment was right as it was making landfall, for crying out loud. I have serious doubts that it will make second landfall AT ALL except as a disorganized blob. Alex has been all about persistence, and sustained intensification has not been part of that. Anyone who made a persistence forecast for Alex the past week would've done much better than model chasers.

At this point I don't care if it goes north, northwest, due west, or spins itself out in this same spot until all the fuel is gone (and if it doesn't get moving faster than a human being's jogging pace, that is what will happen). I'm just sick of it.
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so guys when is 95L coming I see that wave that is comming off africa is that the one or what
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here me out

there will be 17 name storms
7 major hurricanes


this season will make 2008 look like a cake walk

i bet igor makes Ike look like a baby
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2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

1225 UTC



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting Patrap:
RGB
1245 UTC



That's a pretty picture Pat.

Now tell me, do you think the increase in forward speed means the track must go further north...not much but at least some?

Just looking for an opinion, not the normal riot that occurs :-)
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Time: 13:30:30Z
Coordinates: 22.5167N 92.8833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,350 meters (~ 4,429 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 982.5 mb (~ 29.01 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 147° at 2 knots (From the SSE at ~ 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 20.1°C (~ 68.2°F)
Dew Pt: 20.1°C (~ 68.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
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Thanks Ike!! Thanks all who answered my questions!!
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Quoting rattnroll:

Man, you know it, I cant wait. I have just been watching all the Norhtcasters and eastcasters and wishcasters, entertaining I must say!!! I love a good storm but this one is TX/MX bound baby


You got it! You have WUmail!
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Now that we r on page 10, it may be pointless to say, but thank u dr. Carver
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GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast (using WW3)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Alex will hit Northern Mexico but the worst weather will be in extreme south Texas.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Funny how it shows Alex right on track with the latest dynamical models...Tends to make me think that at this point the models have a good handle on it and know more than me.


Yep, I hear you. Wait and see...if the NHC shifts it's track above the TX/MX border, things might get interesting.
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488. IKE
Quoting connie1976:
Ike...you here....you will be able to answer my question...

382. connie1976 1:09 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
Hey all! Is there anything else that might develope in the next week or two? The NHC has done really well with this storm so far...don't ya think? ----oh, and we still need rain here in south florida please...



There might be something in the NE GOM or off of the east coast of Florida in a few days. Still questionable that it happens.

Maybe a system heading toward the islands in about a week. Questionable that that happens too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Still not a hurricane yet

AL, 01, 2010062912, , BEST, 0, 225N, 927W, 60, 983, TS
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Alex to Become Hurricane as Swells Reach Gulf Spill

Tropical Storm Alex, the first named system of the Atlantic hurricane season, strengthened today over open waters, forcing the evacuation of rigs in the Gulf of Mexico while pushing swells toward the worst U.S. oil spill.

The storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 70 miles (110 kilometers) per hour, was 380 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, heading north-northwest at 12 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a 7 a.m. CDT advisory. The circulating winds approached hurricane status of 74 mph.


Oh joy! Thanks Orca!
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RGB
1245 UTC

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
FOREVER LONG TIME FOLLOWER/READER but hardly ever post, so I'm going out on a limb with this one! The farthest north red line is my prediction, farthest south is a friend of mines, and the middle one is my father-in-law, we're all insurance adjusters so we make an income off where this thing hits so we follow this season like a kid in Disney Land. Good Luck to whomever this comes in contact with, I have a felling we'll be feeling this huge monster up here in Oklahoma in due time!

SORRY FOR THE HUGE PICTURE DIDN'T KNOW HOW TO DOWNSIZE, SORRY EVERYONE!

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i got all my batteries
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Quoting asgolfr999:


I am expecting to win the powerball this weekend, I fear your expectations will go the same way as mine.

For me, it will be because I have not bought a ticket, for you, looking at your evidence(!!!) I guess the reason is the same.


ROFLMAO! I'm cracking up! I too am expecting to win the powerball....without a ticket and when I do..I'll handle the oil spill! :)
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Quoting hurricanehanna:


Hey tKeith! No more cows today...the herd grew large last night!
mornin Hanna...yea, we got a little carried away :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8924
480. IMA
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


I'm in San Antonio and your post made me realize we need to trim some tree limbs before the storm hits.

Thanks!!


San Antonio here, too, Sub. The storm we had a few weeks ago trimmed trees for us.
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**blinks** I do not follow, sounds funny, unless COW stands for something, then I should run to StormW's blog and look at the abbreviations/accronyms listing.


it's a low-fat joke, udderly silly...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25833
Quoting tkeith:
lol...cowcaster again?


Hey tKeith! No more cows today...the herd grew large last night!
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Quoting apocalyps:
I am expecting a NE motion for at least 6 hours.


I am expecting to win the powerball this weekend, I fear your expectations will go the same way as mine.

For me, it will be because I have not bought a ticket, for you, looking at your evidence(!!!) I guess the reason is the same.
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♥ h-kat ♥
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25833
this may be a stupid question but i have always wondered why the satellite image jump around some times? Like the WV on the floater right now? Just curious if anyone knows.
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Quoting Tropicaddict:


Well hello fello Stennisinian! :) Other than the wind...we're still forecast to get like 3' of surge (oh yay, more oil) and the rain is already here....Alex's affects are everywhere.


Alex to Become Hurricane as Swells Reach Gulf Spill

Tropical Storm Alex, the first named system of the Atlantic hurricane season, strengthened today over open waters, forcing the evacuation of rigs in the Gulf of Mexico while pushing swells toward the worst U.S. oil spill.

The storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 70 miles (110 kilometers) per hour, was 380 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, heading north-northwest at 12 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a 7 a.m. CDT advisory. The circulating winds approached hurricane status of 74 mph.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Holy Cow! He lives! Hey Ratt, how's it goin? Getting ready for football season?

Man, you know it, I cant wait. I have just been watching all the Norhtcasters and eastcasters and wishcasters, entertaining I must say!!! I love a good storm but this one is TX/MX bound baby
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**blinks** I do not follow, sounds funny, unless COW stands for something, then I should run to StormW's blog and look at the abbreviations/accronyms listing.

Either way, just wondering how the MJO is forecasted to behave in July, looking ahead to what else will come down the proverbial pike.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Interesting tracking map


Funny how it shows Alex right on track with the latest dynamical models...Tends to make me think that at this point the models have a good handle on it and know more than me.
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hurricane23....
yup, I live in South Florida.... sigh, I really wish that we could have a little bit of rain.... :( That means I have to go water my plants....they like rain water better...
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting Tazmanian:
446. RJT185 1:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
How's the MJO doing these days??



we ran it overe by a cow
lol...cowcaster again?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8924
where will the next storm go, you think?

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Quoting rattnroll:


Hey I am at Stennis LOL and yes it has rained a butt ton


Well hello fello Stennisinian! :) Other than the wind...we're still forecast to get like 3' of surge (oh yay, more oil) and the rain is already here....Alex's affects are everywhere.
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Quoting apocalyps:


NO,i expect a NNE motion for a period of at least six hours starting somewhere tomorrow.


Tomorrow it should be moving almost due W. LOL
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446. RJT185 1:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2010
How's the MJO doing these days??



we ran it overe by a cow
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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