Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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3206. Patrap
11:52 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
3205. Patrap
11:44 AM GMT on June 29, 2010

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
3204. Patrap
11:43 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
3202. WxLogic
10:53 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Good morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
3201. BahaHurican
10:26 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting shakaka:


It's probably because the people who make the decisions about what goes on these exams were liberal arts majors and have no way of knowing how right you are.
Actually it's prolly because pple were doing fine with the maths when they got to college (i.e. high correlation between math score and college math scores) but were completely unable to write based on the verbal scores. The writing tests ability to EXPRESS ideas logically and clearly; the verbal only tests one's ability to UNDERSTAND ideas logically and clearly presented. What was happening was pple were coming to college not being able to write what they meant, and considering how much of what one produces in college has to be written coherently, that was creating a serious problem.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
3200. ProjectNinja
7:54 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
So I just shuttled my brother off to Panama from Houston international. I hope he was able to take some pictures in flight, but I don't know yet. Anyway, my family lives in central Texas, but I live in northern Minnesota. I've been visiting for a month or so, and I'm thinking that tomorrow is a good day to drive back north. If I wait until later, I get caught in 4th traffic. If I wait until after, I am afraid I will get caught up in hurricane leftovers also traveling north.

Sorry if I sound callous. I don't mean to. But my family will be safe and is already prepped for disasters. I have no worries about them.

What do the wunderbloggers think? Get out now? Or spend another week with my wonderful family?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
3199. Levi32
7:03 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's also this (western corner of the screen).


Oh ya forgot about that one.

New blog everyone.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3198. KoritheMan
7:01 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


This is FSU, but it usually only gets out to 54 hours before shutting you down with undefined grids. The Accuweather models come from the Pro site which you have to pay for. Otherwise the UKMET is hard to come by.

Meteo France also has the UKMET for North America only, but it can get out to 144 hours if it works properly. 0z run is updating right now out to 72 hours.


There's also this (western corner of the screen).
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21303
3197. Claudette1234
6:53 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Hello,

I see official Track NHC and ADT position and its moving still north. So probably Alex go some miles north of oficcial forecast. South of Texas.

With google maps oficial forecast pass Throug 91º52' W and ADT position is 91º42' W.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
3196. xcool
6:52 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
new BLOG
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3195. xcool
6:49 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3194. JLPR2
6:48 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
You guys know there is a new blog, right? XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
3193. MississippiWx
6:47 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting samiam1234:
wow in the last few frames it has jogged due west.. has anyone else noticed it.. I think the next update the movement will change to wnw.


It's a jog, just like you said. They base movement off either a 6 or 12 hour period. Levi might could help you on that one. I think it's 12, though.

Hey, Levi...Check your mail!

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
3192. samiam1234
6:45 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
wow in the last few frames it has jogged due west.. has anyone else noticed it.. I think the next update the movement will change to wnw.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
3191. xcool
6:44 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3190. Or4590
6:43 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

not ragged sry


it not look very good imo
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3189. Levi32
6:41 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Recon leaving the system now and heading home. Last vortex message shows little evidence of a good core, but pressure is still down steady at 985 with 73kt flight-level winds supporting the 55kt advisory intensity.

000
URNT12 KNHC 290558
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 29/05:25:50Z
B. 21 deg 25 min N
091 deg 47 min W
C. 925 mb 555 m
D. 37 kt
E. 216 deg 12 nm
F. 304 deg 34 kt
G. 216 deg 14 nm
H. EXTRAP 985 mb
I. 23 C / 760 m
J. 23 C / 761 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0701A ALEX OB 16
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 05:40:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 217 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 73 KT NE QUAD 05:40:30Z
;
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3188. xcool
6:40 AM GMT on June 29, 2010


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3187. mcmurray02
6:40 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.

I live in the DFW area, and I've gotta say, my thoughts are like yours. I've analyzed lots of animated water vapor maps (which is a great tool to observe the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere in my opinion) and I'm inclined to think it'll continue its run, poleward into Texas.
When you look at the map, you can see where the front bent southward, and you can't help but think that Alex has played an impact on that. So, perhaps the "attractiveness" between the two will play out. Also add in that our weather pattern has certainly been changing for really the last week (where a capping high pressure has given way to instability, with a more inviting lower pressure.) Normally, under these circumstances, cold fronts like this would have stalled out at the Red River, and not made it into DFW or southward. (If you live here and know the weather around here then you know what I'm talking about.) If Alex had formed last week and had been in the same position, I would have said, "nope, its going to Mexico." But this is different. Mix in the fact that there are more models aiming Alex up here, and I'd say that there's a good chance that Alex will migrate more northward into Texas.

What I find intriguing is how large of a loose, clockwise circulation exists around Alex. It stretches around Alex to the west into Mexico, northward into Texas, and east and then south east into Florida. (All of course while the center of Alex spins counter-clockwise, trying to tighten things up.) The ULL that is where 94L once lived, is a very nice "mate" to Alex's circulation. Look at the two in a water vapor map, and you'll see what I'm talking about.

So, my thoughts are, Alex has the appearance of an "obese" storm. Its like Ike after it hit Cuba, in terms of being too big for its own good. Except in this case that effect seems to be greater, because it has less strength going in and coming out of its recent landfall while it still has as lot of distant circulating bands that it can't handle. So, if it does come up here, we'll certainly continue to see its effects (with a direct hit or not.) The other is that, despite the favorable conditions, I think its going to lag in becoming really organized until late in the game.

We'll just have to see, as this is a unique storm, and hence the diversity in the "opinions" of the computer models.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 69
3186. Levi32
6:39 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting scottsvb:



post link to what you have. I have a unregisterd link that I cant access @ home. I could go into ruskin and ask them...but since I dont work there.. they would tell me NO! lol


This is FSU, but it usually only gets out to 54 hours before shutting you down with undefined grids. The Accuweather models come from the Pro site which you have to pay for. Otherwise the UKMET is hard to come by.

Meteo France also has the UKMET for North America only, but it can get out to 144 hours if it works properly. 0z run is updating right now out to 72 hours.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3185. Houstonia
6:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


The models have been doing poorly with Alex so far but these 0z runs are supposed to have G-4 dropsonde data in them making them a bit more accurate.


Thanks Levi
Member Since: May 20, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
3184. Levi32
6:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
0z ECMWF initialized a little bit too far southwest, but shows a due NW motion for the first 24 hours, not WNW. The difference is it doesn't take Alex nearly as far north before getting forced west.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3183. scottsvb
6:35 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


FSU site and Accuweather. Accuweather only has the 0z runs of it but all the way out to 120 hours.



post link to what you have. I have a unregisterd link that I cant access @ home. I could go into ruskin and ask them...but since I dont work there.. they would tell me NO! lol
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
3181. washingaway
6:33 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2010/ALEX/images/Storm-01-Spaghetti.gif
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
3180. Levi32
6:32 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting scottsvb:
Levi what UkMet model do you use?


FSU site and Accuweather. Accuweather only has the 0z runs of it but all the way out to 120 hours.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3179. xcool
6:32 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
btwntx08 :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3176. Levi32
6:29 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Houstonia:
I'm a little confused - maybe someone can help me out.

The other night - I can't remember which one... the late-night models (I think it was the 1/2 a.m.) showed that Alex was going to head north. Many people mentioned that certain time models were not reliable at all (I think it was the late-night models).

Is this still the case? Is it different depending on whether it's a depression or a storm?

I will try to find the postings, but... that would definitely take a while.


The models have been doing poorly with Alex so far but these 0z runs are supposed to have G-4 dropsonde data in them making them a bit more accurate. It is looking like potential landfall may be leaning more towards northern Mexico based on these runs, but they have flip-flopped a lot before and nothing is set in stone yet. We'll have to see how Alex moves compared to the model and NHC forecast tracks overnight.

As for intensity....that's an iffy one. A strong hurricane is more likely to feel the weakness in the ridge and move toward it, but Alex's massive size makes him able to possibly pump the ridge to his north, helping to take him west. How these factors balance out remains to be seen. Overall I don't think his intensity will have a major impact on track.
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3175. scottsvb
6:29 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Levi what UkMet model do you use?
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
3174. homelesswanderer
6:28 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


That's ok. I actually do have that one but thank you. I didn't see the plymouth one down on the bottom of that page though, and that's the one that updates earliest. At any rate....0z ECMWF shows landfall near Tampico, Mexico, still pretty far south compared to the other models.


Yeah. Seems all our regular models we always look at are south of the border. Wherever it goes I hope it doesnt bottom out to a major.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3173. scottsvb
6:27 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Best models are GFDL,GFS,ECMWF only time to go by other models is if 1 of them above is heading a different path. Then you can see what the other global, HRW models show.

The LBAR,BAMN,BAMM and other tropical models are usually decent for weak storms like TDs or open troughs
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3172. Or4590
6:27 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
alex look very ragged i not mpressed
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3171. Cantu5977
6:26 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
UKMET 00z

Photobucket
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3170. Houstonia
6:25 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
I'm a little confused - maybe someone can help me out.

The other night - I can't remember which one... the late-night models (I think it was the 1/2 a.m.) showed that Alex was going to head north. Many people mentioned that certain time models were not reliable at all (I think it was the late-night models).

Is this still the case? Is it different depending on whether it's a depression or a storm?

I will try to find the postings, but... that would definitely take a while.
Member Since: May 20, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
3169. scottsvb
6:24 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
I guess they use plymouth state website but all the stuff I see people post from that site are things that are not linked to on the main page....probably hidden in a directory somewhere that I don't have the link to.



Yeah I found it, I never really used that site much for the Euro.. I will I guess now since it does come out 1hr before hand (first 72hrs). You have to scroll down almost 1/2 the page
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
3168. Levi32
6:24 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Sorry Levi. I posted that link before but thought you had it.


That's ok. I actually do have that one but thank you. I didn't see the plymouth one down on the bottom of that page though, and that's the one that updates earliest. At any rate....0z ECMWF shows landfall near Tampico, Mexico, still pretty far south compared to the other models.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3167. Daveg
6:23 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Wow...

These models are just ALL over the place. One run is north, next is south, then back north again..... rinse and repeat.

I don't think we're going to have any idea for quite some time. Especially if Alex just keeps sitting there and barely moving.

Time for sleep...maybe he'll make up his mind overnight! :-)
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3166. Cantu5977
6:23 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Photobucket



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3165. xcool
6:23 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Levi32 i have 3 website
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3164. homelesswanderer
6:22 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


The early one you use ya it is.


Plymouth is on the second link i posted and more source for it
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3163. Levi32
6:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting xcool:
Levi32 not plymouth


The early one you use ya it is.
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3162. homelesswanderer
6:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Sorry Levi. I posted that link before but thought you had it.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3161. TexasHurricane
6:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Well I guess I am out....Still seems it is going to the Brownsville area, so I guess we are in the clear (hopefully it won't get to strong for those who will be affected)...I will check back tomorrow to see if their are any changes. Nite all.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
3160. thegoldenstrand
6:20 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting CaneAddict:


Current conditions around Alex don't seem to be bothering him to much. He's done nothing but get better organized all night. I don't see it being affected much if at all from the slight deviations with the conditions that could normally cause problems with a developing hurricane. This is likely because alex is such a big system.


So does this mean you think that once Alex passes to more favorable conditions he should take off in intensity, but because he is such a large storm it might take some time? Were you agreeing with me? ;)
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
3159. Goldenblack
6:18 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting washingaway:
I'm not sure everyone understands that the further north Alex goes, regardless if turns more west down the road, New Orleans will be getting SW winds from alex and from the high the east. This will push that oil deep into the marsh.


Yes, I think it is true that not everyone is looking at that scenario. The whole situation is bad, nevermind a tropical system adding complication to the disaster. I really feel for those affected, and I am mad as I can be observing it happen.
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3158. xcool
6:18 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Levi32 not plymouth
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3157. homelesswanderer
6:18 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


That one I have and doesn't update for another 30 minutes at least.


sorry i think the links mesed up. this is sometimes earlier Link
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron