Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 407 - 357

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Quoting dsenecal2009:
Latest Dropsonde (3:41pm CDT)

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 20:41Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 08

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 200mb
Coordinates: 23.0N 87.1W
Location: 129 miles (208 km) to the N (352°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1002mb (29.59 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) Pressure extrapolated between surface and 850 mb level since sonde did not reach surface.
1000mb Information Unavailable
925mb 703m (2,306 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.9°C (71.4°F) 130° (from the SE) 38 knots (44 mph)
850mb 1,438m (4,718 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F) 140° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
700mb 3,090m (10,138 ft) 12.0°C (53.6°F) Approximately 6°C (43°F) 145° (from the SE) 38 knots (44 mph)
500mb 5,820m (19,094 ft) -5.1°C (22.8°F) -6.4°C (20.5°F) 155° (from the SSE) 32 knots (37 mph)
400mb 7,550m (24,770 ft) -13.9°C (7.0°F) -16.2°C (2.8°F) 200° (from the SSW) 24 knots (28 mph)
300mb 9,680m (31,759 ft) -27.9°C (-18.2°F) -28.6°C (-19.5°F) 255° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
250mb 10,960m (35,958 ft) -37.3°C (-35.1°F) Approximately -52°C (-62°F) 275° (from the W) 20 knots (23 mph)
200mb 12,460m (40,879 ft) -49.7°C (-57.5°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 305° (from the NW) 23 knots (26 mph)
150mb 14,290m (46,883 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.


And that one was north of the northeast tip of the Yucatan. Here's the flight pattern so far.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't understand why.


Well it looks like NHC is shifting according to models because of the southern shift at least. Last time I checked earlier today many models didn't even bring Alex to hurricane strength.. No idea why.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I just don't know where to find the statements where they say what runs the G-IV data will be put in. Sometimes we have to wait another 6 hours, but hopefully we get it for 0z not 6z.
I hope not... I'm sure the updates will be put on the NHC site, the better question is where.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TampaSpin:


IKE just looked the looP heck it looks like its moving NE to me.....


It looks like NE to me as well. It appears to want to get under that convection pulling off the Yucatan. I am glad someone else is seeing this. Some think NW and I say no way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Good guessm I'm thinking a little west....matbe 95.1....
It might stall out there longer than expected. I wonder how the computers will handle that. Usually its all over the map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


No it's not, NHC doesn't even make it a CAT 2 right now, just a 1.
Don't understand why.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Latest Dropsonde (3:41pm CDT)

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 20:41Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 08

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 200mb
Coordinates: 23.0N 87.1W
Location: 129 miles (208 km) to the N (352°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1002mb (29.59 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) Pressure extrapolated between surface and 850 mb level since sonde did not reach surface.
1000mb Information Unavailable
925mb 703m (2,306 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.9°C (71.4°F) 130° (from the SE) 38 knots (44 mph)
850mb 1,438m (4,718 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 15.1°C (59.2°F) 140° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
700mb 3,090m (10,138 ft) 12.0°C (53.6°F) Approximately 6°C (43°F) 145° (from the SE) 38 knots (44 mph)
500mb 5,820m (19,094 ft) -5.1°C (22.8°F) -6.4°C (20.5°F) 155° (from the SSE) 32 knots (37 mph)
400mb 7,550m (24,770 ft) -13.9°C (7.0°F) -16.2°C (2.8°F) 200° (from the SSW) 24 knots (28 mph)
300mb 9,680m (31,759 ft) -27.9°C (-18.2°F) -28.6°C (-19.5°F) 255° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
250mb 10,960m (35,958 ft) -37.3°C (-35.1°F) Approximately -52°C (-62°F) 275° (from the W) 20 knots (23 mph)
200mb 12,460m (40,879 ft) -49.7°C (-57.5°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 305° (from the NW) 23 knots (26 mph)
150mb 14,290m (46,883 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
I say that it will not reach 25 N until it makes landfall. Maybe as a cat.2 perhaps even 3. About 100-150 miles south of Brownsville.

closer than that :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From NWS Houston/Galveston's latest discussion:

As far as impacts from Alex...main issues will be heavy rainfall
along the coast. Inland areas can still expect as much as 1 to 3
inches of rainfall. Strong easterly winds will contribute to
higher seas as well as higher tides. Tides will be close to
causing coastal flooding problems especially for Galveston and
Brazoria counties. Tides will be monitored for a possible coastal
Flood Watch should it look like tide levels will be higher. A
marine weather statement and tide product will highlight more
information.


They are going with the official forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
StormW was saying so earlier so I assume he is right.


I just don't know where to find the statements where they say what runs the G-IV data will be put in. Sometimes we have to wait another 6 hours, but hopefully we get it for 0z not 6z.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Alex is is just a taste of what's to come (from what I hear). Gulf is hot, and I mean HOT. Upper air flow is typical for the season and water temps are boiling. You love it or you hate it, it's up to you. Texas, sorry, you can have it this year. No Mobile please!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
395. jpsb
Quoting sarahjola:

not one met. or expert has said that this would stall out for so long.
Yup, pretty good argument over wnw/nw/nnw but one one saw a stall. In fact Alex is still stalled and not one model deals with that. Which tells me Alex might have a few more surprises in store for us.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1252
291 OmG disco flashlights!
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting TampaSpin:


IKE just looked the looP heck it looks like its moving NE to me.....


NAY maybe not.....its just sitting and wobbling every little direction...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Ike is that m for major hurricane I see.....


No it's not, NHC doesn't even make it a CAT 2 right now, just a 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
344:

I doubt it hits texas at all, but just for laughs...

NNW...

if that is 3N per 2W, then extrapolation says Alex should hit somewhere near Corpus.

If that is 2N per 1W, extrapolation says Alex will hit near the TX/LA border.

But those distances are so far away, the storm is highly likely to be caught by the next trough before it gets there.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Quoting IKE:


Looks like the NHC has this track just about nailed.......


Good afternoon Ike!
Right now I'd agree. That could all change overnight! Alex is full of surprises it seems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


The one to bookmark is this one. That link is an URL for a loop that I generated myself. This page will enable you to zoom in anywhere you want and make a loop for yourself. It's like setting up your own floater.


Thanks again Levi!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
The track may look nailed but there is still quite a bit of room for change in the models. Watch out for any changes on the 0z runs, which should (can anyone confirm?) have the dropsonde data from the G-IV flight in them.
StormW was saying so earlier so I assume he is right.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I say that it will not reach 25 N until it makes landfall. Maybe as a cat.2 perhaps even 3. About 100-150 miles south of Brownsville.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fsumet:

They were clustered a few days ago too, in southern Mexico. Maybe this time they will be right?


Once the G4 information is plugged in to the 00z runs tonight I think there'll be a pretty big change in the "consensus", just my opinion though, so take with a LARGE grain of salt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a question. Today the heat index made it up to 121. Why no heat advisory today when we have had one for days with HI only reaching 106?

This is in Charleston, SC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The track may look nailed but there is still quite a bit of room for change in the models. Watch out for any changes on the 0z runs, which should (can anyone confirm?) have the dropsonde data from the G-IV flight in them.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
Quoting Levi32:
Don't you wish this radar had been working these last couple days.



It's an adjacent radar interfering with this site. In Radar jargon it's called "running rabbits".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just has a heavy squall come through new orleans with a sutained wind of 42 mph gusts to 51mph..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z RUC South of the border

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
RGB also shows what IR shows, increasing convection around the COC with stronger amounts of thunderstorms forming to the W and N. Appears to me that Alex is currently trying to filter out some dry air too, and that gap between the COC and the north band could fill in later.



Structure remains excellent. We just need uniformed convection and Alex will be on its way when Alex taps into that deeper TCHP and SST's to its north.


That image is great. Tells the whole story. You can see how amazing the structure is under the convection-less gaps. However, the convection itself is not so amazing, but once it gets out of the continental shelf and into deeper waters...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
New advisory continues to have Alex moving NNW. Not west. Not WNW, and not even NW.


At a snail's pace, which will keep it further south until it gets steered toward the coast. If it were moving even as fast as it was (12mph) it would still be moving relatively slowly for a hurricane. There are still too many variables right now but the slow movement really makes the direction less important.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting victoriahurricane:


Levi that is a brilliant link and you can clearly see the center moving north and an eyewall trying to form, I bookmarked it thanks.



The one to bookmark is this one. That link is an URL for a loop that I generated myself. This page will enable you to zoom in anywhere you want and make a loop for yourself. It's like setting up your own floater.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
374. victoriahurricane 5:02 PM EDT on June 28, 2010

Ok, thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Any recon missions to check out the COC of Alex scheduled tonight?


000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 29/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0701A ALEX
C. 28/2030Z
D. 21.1N 93.4W
E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0801A ALEX
C. 29/0845Z
D. 21.8N 94.2W
E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV FLIGHT FOR 30/0000Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA 42 WILL BE DOING RESEARCH FLIGHTS INTO
ALEX WITH TAKEOFFS EVERY 12 HRS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
(28/0800Z, 28/2000Z ETC.) OPERATING ALTITUDE 12,000 FT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol this storm aint gonna do what its supposed to do, when they stall and do this...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
I'll be glad when they get that G4 up and get the info into the computers. It's no wonder the models are flip flopping...conditions out toward the west are a little chaotic...that trof near the four corners, though deeper, looks to have slowed somewhat, and a ridge is kinda building around it, but is right now over-running the top of the trof. Have to see how this progresses, and steering may have to be re-evaluated...updated steering layers forecast maps are a little south again.



I'm confused. In the discussion they said when the upper level trough over the N GOM moves away the ridge will build back in and push it west. I thought it was the trough out west that would break the ridge down. Do I have that wrong? It's ok if I do I usually get stuff wrong. Lol :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I say it's making landfall in-between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
370. Daveg
Quoting IKE:


In all likelihood...northern Mexico.


Probably true. I'm interested to see if the models continue to bounce around though.

I either case, probably going to get a good rain out of it up here in Austin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Skye, don't forget this if SSD doesn't update. It has rapid-scan frames every 5-15 minutes, which is both a blessing and a curse because the temporal resolution is awesome but the loop isn't long enough to see really long-term trends in motion.


Levi that is a brilliant link and you can clearly see the center moving north and an eyewall trying to form, I bookmarked it thanks.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any recon missions to check out the COC of Alex scheduled tonight?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think we understand what you mean by just saying "NNW".
But NNW does not mean much if not moving.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike,Alex will die deep in the heart of Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike is that m for major hurricane I see.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
About 2+ days left and Alex will reach his final landing.....



IKE just looked the looP heck it looks like its moving NE to me.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormChaser81:


I need to, just really busy ill start tomorrow.


I know what you mean! Thanks for the update graphic by the way. Good stuff!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
362. IKE
Quoting Daveg:


But where will it be?

I have to say the models are still confusing me. Many of them still seem to show north of the border, but I suppose I should go with what the NHC says eh?


In all likelihood...northern Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
361. Mikla
About 60 miles give or take a couple.
Quoting LaCoast:
Can someone tell me how many miles Alex has moved in the last 12 hours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
New advisory continues to have Alex moving NNW. Not west. Not WNW, and not even NW.
I think we understand what you mean by just saying "NNW".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Seems like they're more tightly clustered now?



They were clustered a few days ago too, in southern Mexico. Maybe this time they will be right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
358. Daveg
Quoting IKE:
About 2+ days left and Alex will reach his final landing.....



But where will it be?

I have to say the models are still confusing me. Many of them still seem to show north of the border, but I suppose I should go with what the NHC says eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
357. IKE
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Seems like they're more tightly clustered now?




Looks like the NHC has this track just about nailed.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 407 - 357

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
56 °F
Light Rain