Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scottsvb:



brownsville isnt ground zero but they arent out of the woods yet.... they will probably get TS force winds mostly in feeder bands only. That's cause the system is big. The main hurricane force winds will be 100- 150 miles further south.Landfall will be around 23.3-23.8N

From earlier today and last night
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Another thing, in meteorology you cannot use historical data. It is just extremely unreliable. How can you believe all conditions will be present for a storm to follow the track of a provious storm? what are the odds of that happening same steering currents located at the same place? You could use historical data just to get a rough idea of how many hurricanes could form if temperatures and a few other conditions are similar to previous years ie: this year looks sort of like 2005, but not quite there yet.
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3055. Levi32
Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.


They do, but a ridge currently moving over the Rockies is coming east and will be forcing Alex back towards the WNW at some point. Right now it looks like only southern Texas and Mexico are in play, but if Alex moves much slower than forecast, which it has tended to do, there may be yet more changes to the possible track, but right now the most likely landfall areas are still northern Mexico to southern Texas.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Levi32:


925mb reduction gives 55 knots at the surface which is the the current advisory intensity, a 65mph tropical storm.
Okay thanks have to refresh the memory sometimes you know.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Please people, you all know this north track is only momentarily. If something Texas will get hit a bit further north, but that's all. Think about it when was the last chance you saw a storm moving basically the opposite side of the cone? So lets quit Northcasting and even worse noreastcasting.


Not northcasting just asking a question....nevermind, no more questions .....:(
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3052. 7544
hey xcool and btw get ready 80mph ?????
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3051. xcool
Scenario 2 here
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SFMR reported non-contaminated 62 knot surface wind reading. Borderline hurricane readings.
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm up to 04:45 UTC on that loop...they are usually 45 minutes behind which isn't awful, but I prefer the best :)

If you're 2 hours behind then your browser must be having a problem updating it. Try using the flash loop instead of the java loop.


Thank you very much for replying. That was what I was afraid of Levi. I am a bit of an instructional technologist, so I have all kinds of security protocols and firewalls running over here, which really messes with the flash loops. Do you get blank frames in your noaa animation loops too?

E
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3048. Levi32
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
system is still strengthing at least pressure wise 73kt flight level is how much at the surface?


925mb reduction gives 55 knots at the surface which is the the current advisory intensity, a 65mph tropical storm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting AlexEmmett:

84.007

not sure of surface but what i post is kt to mph at ftlvl
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3046. help4u
hwrf to texas
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Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.


Scenario 3.
Stationary/slow movement.
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MODELS ARENT DOWN TO 2 SCENARIOS!!!!!
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Looks like Alex is finally moving again. My daybreak he will be heading towards a more favorable environment.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
system is still strengthing at least pressure wise 73kt flight level is how much at the surface?

84.007
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Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.


I hadn't heard of it stalling. I think it's the high above it or behind it that's supposed to steer Al west. So that would seem to bloc the westward movement. Of course I am not a met and could be perfectly wrong.
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Quoting tessa:
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.


Any poleward movement of Alex will be short-lived. Steering currents should restrengthen, and force a more WNW component within the next day or so.

However, I'd still keep my eyes peeled, just in case that does not materialize.
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Please people, you all know this north track is only momentarily. If something Texas will get hit a bit further north, but that's all. Think about it when was the last chance you saw a storm moving basically the opposite side of the cone? So lets quit Northcasting and even worse noreastcasting.
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3038. xcool
7544 hey
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Looks like the center has gone further north based on recon
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Quoting Levi32:
984.7mb and 73-knot flight-level winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290534
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 54 20100629
052500 2123N 09148W 9249 00557 9855 +228 +222 286007 011 021 000 00
052530 2124N 09147W 9244 00561 9853 +226 +223 288003 005 022 001 00
052600 2125N 09147W 9244 00559 9851 +227 +222 133002 003 024 000 03
052630 2127N 09146W 9243 00559 9849 +225 +222 131005 007 021 000 00
052700 2128N 09144W 9246 00554 9847 +225 +222 135013 016 021 002 00
052730 2129N 09143W 9246 00552 9847 +220 +220 135022 024 026 000 00

052800 2130N 09142W 9247 00554 9851 +216 +216 138028 030 030 003 00
052830 2131N 09141W 9247 00558 9856 +211 +211 139032 034 035 004 00
052900 2132N 09140W 9247 00562 9859 +219 +214 139037 039 038 003 00
052930 2133N 09139W 9248 00566 9866 +216 +210 140043 046 047 005 00
053000 2134N 09137W 9248 00572 9875 +198 +198 141057 060 052 009 00
053030 2135N 09136W 9248 00575 9882 +192 +192 141063 067 057 014 03
053100 2136N 09135W 9251 00576 9888 +190 +190 136068 068 061 022 03
053130 2137N 09134W 9246 00590 9897 +189 +189 138068 069 062 020 00
053200 2138N 09133W 9246 00596 9905 +189 +189 141069 073 055 010 00
053230 2139N 09132W 9248 00603 9913 +193 +189 137069 070 053 012 00
053300 2140N 09131W 9255 00601 9920 +187 +187 131066 067 055 025 03
053330 2141N 09130W 9244 00614 9927 +175 +175 135066 068 058 037 03
053400 2142N 09128W 9244 00620 9934 +170 +170 138068 068 056 035 03
053430 2144N 09127W 9243 00625 9938 +176 +176 142067 069 054 022 03
$$
system is still strengthing at least pressure wise 73kt flight level is how much at the surface?
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3035. 7544
morning all alex looks good ready for dmax

new blob just broke away from alex now in the center of the gom hmmmmmm could this become something at dmax tooo
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Quoting gustavcane:
look at the orange CLP5 29/0000Z model on this map. it shows the the same path that Hurricane Audrey took in 1957. also look Very Closely at how all the models thats together over texas take a sharp curve to the northeast like Hurricane Audrey did in 1957.


The CLP5 is a climatology and persistance model which is basically just where storms have historically done based on chronology and geographic position mainly. Experts, please correct me if I'm wrong.

The other models are going to be generally more reliable since they are based on current conditions. The historic trends have always interested me but I don't believe we have enough history to make them reliable. JMHO
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Quoting Joanie38:
I guess its set in stone now eh??


As soon as anyone knows all the answers, the questions change. Such is life.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 981
Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.


I didn't think it took a scientist to read a few lines on a map.
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3031. Levi32
Quoting Goldenblack:
Hi all,

I have been on this blog reading, and lurking, since 2004 (when Charley went right over me in SWFL). Finally, I have joined the fray (that darn 12 hour wait window was surprising, but makes since) I will properly introduce later....

I was noticing UTC time on the noaa satellite feeds (NHC site of course) are about 2 hours behind. Am I reading that wrong? I like Levi's satellite sites (can make your own zoom and animation level), but was wondering if I am getting some kind of lag time when using the NHC links.

Link


I'm up to 04:45 UTC on that loop...they are usually 45 minutes behind which isn't awful, but I prefer the best :)

If you're 2 hours behind then your browser must be having a problem updating it. Try using the flash loop instead of the java loop.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Levi32:


I have never considered LA in play since Friday. I just don't see that happening. You guys over there may see some of the very outer bands with a few thunderstorms if this goes into Texas, but I think you can breathe easy.


Agree, Louisiana hit slim chance. Mississippi hit not at all. The good news is no oil spill recovery effort should be interrupted, and my house will not be covered in tar and oil. If I get one this year that's it no more rebuilding. not that you would be able when covered in oil.
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3029. Or4590
alex struggle
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3028. Levi32
984.7mb and 73-knot flight-level winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290534
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 54 20100629
052500 2123N 09148W 9249 00557 9855 +228 +222 286007 011 021 000 00
052530 2124N 09147W 9244 00561 9853 +226 +223 288003 005 022 001 00
052600 2125N 09147W 9244 00559 9851 +227 +222 133002 003 024 000 03
052630 2127N 09146W 9243 00559 9849 +225 +222 131005 007 021 000 00
052700 2128N 09144W 9246 00554 9847 +225 +222 135013 016 021 002 00
052730 2129N 09143W 9246 00552 9847 +220 +220 135022 024 026 000 00

052800 2130N 09142W 9247 00554 9851 +216 +216 138028 030 030 003 00
052830 2131N 09141W 9247 00558 9856 +211 +211 139032 034 035 004 00
052900 2132N 09140W 9247 00562 9859 +219 +214 139037 039 038 003 00
052930 2133N 09139W 9248 00566 9866 +216 +210 140043 046 047 005 00
053000 2134N 09137W 9248 00572 9875 +198 +198 141057 060 052 009 00
053030 2135N 09136W 9248 00575 9882 +192 +192 141063 067 057 014 03
053100 2136N 09135W 9251 00576 9888 +190 +190 136068 068 061 022 03
053130 2137N 09134W 9246 00590 9897 +189 +189 138068 069 062 020 00
053200 2138N 09133W 9246 00596 9905 +189 +189 141069 073 055 010 00
053230 2139N 09132W 9248 00603 9913 +193 +189 137069 070 053 012 00
053300 2140N 09131W 9255 00601 9920 +187 +187 131066 067 055 025 03
053330 2141N 09130W 9244 00614 9927 +175 +175 135066 068 058 037 03
053400 2142N 09128W 9244 00620 9934 +170 +170 138068 068 056 035 03
053430 2144N 09127W 9243 00625 9938 +176 +176 142067 069 054 022 03
$$
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting thegoldenstrand:
Alex in cooler waters and near coolest waters in Gulf until it moves north of 22.33 N. Thinking this together with some of the dry air and shear that has impacted storm recently should slow development for the next few hours, but once it is north of 22.5N or so if other conditions favorable, that will be when to watch and see what develops. Thoughts?


Current conditions around Alex don't seem to be bothering him to much. He's done nothing but get better organized all night. I don't see it being affected much if at all from the slight deviations with the conditions that could normally cause problems with a developing hurricane. This is likely because alex is such a big system.
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3026. BA
Quoting tristanh72:


Should be something to filter out all the "ZOMG! its going to hit NO as a cat 5!!!!!!!!elevnty!!! bank on it!!!!" stuff that's been around so much. Then again, it's like that every season. A few names you come to listen to, a whole lot of other background noise.


exactly, healthy discussion, i.e. I think it may go here because of this feature and that feature seems fine, ppl that just, "ALEX CAT4 into LA, BELIEVE IT" really don't help much
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3025. tessa
Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about the the cold/cool front that is drapped over most of North Texas around the DFW area that is pulling up stationary by tomorrow and then forcast to pull up as a warm front. Won't this open a path for Alex to make a northly jog? I've always heard that storms will take the path of least resistance. Thanks for input on this.
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All 0z models coming together...HWRF south & now GFDL goes way south


WHXX04 KWBC 290525
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.7 91.7 360./ 4.1
6 21.2 92.2 316./ 6.4
12 22.0 92.9 318./10.1
18 22.4 93.5 308./ 7.0
24 22.9 94.2 306./ 8.2
30 23.2 95.0 293./ 8.0
36 23.4 95.9 282./ 8.5
42 23.4 96.5 267./ 6.1
48 23.6 97.3 285./ 7.2
54 23.5 98.2 263./ 8.7
60 22.9 99.7 250./14.5
66 22.5 101.6 257./17.8
72 22.5 103.4 269./17.3
78 23.0 105.6 283./20.1
84 24.1 107.1 306./18.0
90 25.2 108.3 312./15.3
96 26.3 109.1 323./13.0
102 27.3 109.9 321./12.6
108 27.6 110.3 308./ 5.0
114 28.5 111.4 307./13.2
120 28.9 111.7 328./ 5.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Is anything ever set in stone, with regards to meteorology? Ask yourself that.


Oppps, you are right I understand....thanks..:)
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Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.
im going with scenario 1 for the time being but scenario2 is ver possible.
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Quoting thegoldenstrand:
Alex in cooler waters and near coolest waters in Gulf until it moves north of 22.33 N. Thinking this together with some of the dry air and shear that has impacted storm recently should slow development for the next few hours, but once it is north of 22.5N or so if other conditions favorable, that will be when to watch and see what develops. Thoughts?


Completely agree.
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3019. Levi32
Quoting Joanie38:
So do you think we still need to watch this here in SW LA?


I have never considered LA in play since Friday. I just don't see that happening. You guys over there may see some of the very outer bands with a few thunderstorms if this goes into Texas, but I think you can breathe easy.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Hi all,

I have been on this blog reading, and lurking, since 2004 (when Charley went right over me in SWFL). Finally, I have joined the fray (that darn 12 hour wait window was surprising, but makes since) I will properly introduce later....

I was noticing UTC time on the noaa satellite feeds (NHC site of course) are about 2 hours behind. Am I reading that wrong? I like Levi's satellite sites (can make your own zoom and animation level), but was wondering if I am getting some kind of lag time when using the NHC links.

Link
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Quoting Joanie38:
So is this track set in stone now??


No.
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3016. xcool
alex hey
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Alex is over cooler waters and near coolest waters in Gulf until it moves north of 22.33 N. Thinking this together with some of the dry air and shear that has impacted storm recently should slow development for the next few hours, but once it is north of 22.5N or so if other conditions favorable, that will be when to watch and see what develops. Thoughts?
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Well we know tropical systems can do silly and shocking things at the last moment...
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Quoting Joanie38:
So is this track set in stone now??


Is anything ever set in stone, with regards to meteorology? Ask yourself that.
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Quoting Joanie38:
No you should be fine northern mexico to corpus problem right now.
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Evening everyone. I actually thought with the pressure drop earlier this evening that Alex would be a Hurricane at 11 p.m. Oh well, my time frame was 11-5 so there's still time. Still moving north, and models are back to two scenarios.

Scenario 1..
Storm hooks a WNW track towards deep southern Texas,Mexico borderline.

Scenario 2..
The storm gains momentum and heads NW into southern, central Texas, then heads more north after landfall, maybe even starts to recurve.
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3010. Daveg
We'll see about south of the border... models have been bouncing north and south all day. Most are north right now...

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
3009. BA
Quoting RuBRNded:


too late, already several models showing a direct hit at my house (I live on the beach, gulf coast)
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3008. shakaka
Quoting LightningCharmer:


I don't know if I agree with the new format. Math is only 1/3 of the total score and verbal, reading and writing, 2/3's. Are language skills twice as important as math skills. Would we have had such a mortgage crisis if more understood math, i.e. finance, better?

Not that language skill are not important but math based fields like accounting, engineering, computers, tele-communications, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, weather forcasting, etc. are generally more wealth producing and provide scientific advances that lead to among other things, more advance warning of pending severe weather including tropical weather events.

Maybe they, the powers that be, added the writing because of the all the "Text-Speak." (Not while driving Oprah)

Perhaps maybe it goes back to our learnin' roots, "readin', writin' & 'rithmatic.


It's probably because the people who make the decisions about what goes on these exams were liberal arts majors and have no way of knowing how right you are.
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Quoting Levi32:


No, but with a lot of these 0z runs coming in south of the TX/MX border, it may point towards less likelyhood of a Texas landfall, but that possibility is still very open. The models have been performing terribly so far even in the short term track.

So do you think we still need to watch this here in SW LA?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.