Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


G4 is the plane they use to help determin the steering currents ahead of the storm


OOOOH. That's what it is. Thanks was wondering. :)
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it did move .2 degrees east in the last 2 hours lol
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If he gets to 25N before getting to 95W, SE TX is gonna have some serious rainfall
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9784
There are two missions currently on Google earth, Mission 6 & 7
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 282351
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX MOVING LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 91.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Have to go. Bye.
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1350. MrsOsa
Quoting texascoastres:
STSIMONISLANDGA ike is the reason they changed the hurricane categories to not include the storm surge anymore. Yes, Ike was a cat2 but with the storm surge of a cat 4. By the way, just type in "Hurricane Ike damage at crystal beach or Gilcrest or highisland) and see just exactly what happened due to Ike. Doesnt sound like you got the concept of what it was like here. Not trying to start an arguement but I dont think you know in this case


Read his post carefully. StSimon was saying that Ike caused major damage but wasn't considered a "major" hurricane in the technical sense of the word. Basically saying that those who are saying Alex is no big deal because it may ONLY be a Cat 2 and not major are all off their rockers.
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 282351
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX MOVING LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 91.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A NORTH-NORTWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALEX.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT CAYO
ARCAS...LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF ALEX...
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR...AND
A GUST OF 45 MPH...73 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN
VERACRUZ OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4454
1345. atmoaggie 11:52 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Nolehead:
i just don't see it going that fat west with this front coming down...granted i'm probably going to be wrong but to me i just don't get it....LA & MS might better look out...but that's just me and i like my crow fried please....lol
Sry, but the crow will become an endangered species very soon, at this rate. We are going to need a another wrong-meal.


lol, i hear ya...
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1347. IKE
...ALEX MOVING LITTLE...

7:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 28
Location: 20.6N 91.6W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 990 mb
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1346. Michfan
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I am well aware that Ike was an extremely destructive storm. However, he was not a major hurricane. He was a Cat 2 at landfall in Texas.

My point is that a hurricane doesn't have to be a major hurricane to be very dangerous.


The main reason for this is because prior to landfall Ike was a major hurricane that was so large and had built up such a large storm surge. You have to remember that where it takes winds a bit to catch up to the pressure of as storm it also takes a bit for storm surge to wind down as a cyclone loses intensity.
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Quoting Nolehead:
i just don't see it going that fat west with this front coming down...granted i'm probably going to be wrong but to me i just don't get it....LA & MS might better look out...but that's just me and i like my crow fried please....lol
Sry, but the crow will become an endangered species very soon, at this rate. We are going to need a another wrong-meal.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1344. Patrap
Hurricane Research Division

OUR MISSION

Aircraft


Aircraft

Tropical cyclones are ideal subjects for study from instrumented aircraft. P3 aircraft The vortex core is relatively small--only a few hundred kilometers across. An airplane can traverse it 5-10 times in the course of a flight lasting 6-8 hours. The great rotational inertia of the swirling wind means that the balanced vortex changes slowly during the time that an airplane can remain on station. Expendable probes can report atmospheric or oceanic conditions as they drop from flight level. The size of the core is comparable with the range of 5 or 10 cm wavelength search radars. Although aircraft radars are relatively low powered and have small antennas, the ability to move through the storm enables them to observe storms in detail. G-4 aircraft The foregoing advantages compound for aircraft equipped with Doppler radars, particularly so if they can fly coordinated patterns in pairs to produce true dual-Doppler winds. NOAA's aircraft operations center flies two WP-3D turboprop that represent a unique scientific resource and are the mainstay of HRD's annual campaign of airborne hurricane observations. Starting in 1997, a third aircraft, a Gulfstream IVSP jet entered the inventory. This airplane is dedicated to synoptic surveillance to obtain observations in the environment around hurricanes to improve operational track forecasts.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133465
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yay. Seems I'm not alone in noticing the de-evolution...back to painfully lurking. Not worth posting much atm.


I'm with you Atmo, I can only take so much doomcasting. Maybe I should be a car salesman - I least I can still lie and get paid.
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I would be surprised if this Storm does not come in south of Brownsville. They are saying the good rains will stay in south Texas along the coast?
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


G4 = Hurricane Hunter air plane


G4 is the plane they use to help determin the steering currents ahead of the storm
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, I think you're looking at the computer at a messed up angle.


LOL
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I'm gonna keep showing this till its drives everybody nuts


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9784
Quoting btwntx08:

interesting downplaying the intensity this time


Yeah. Shear is leaving, so I have no clue why the GFDL has Alex so weak.
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The recon is heading west so the non task mission can fly throug the dead center of the storm
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Quoting RecordSeason:
The recon plane is flying a route to attempt to establish the maximum extent of winds of key intensity markers in as many directions as possible. This is an attempt to get a better idea of how broad the circulation is at any given strength and pressure level.

This will allow them to say, "Alex has TD or TS or Cat1 winds at such and such range in direction X" and so on.


And don't forget...It will show that turn to the east!
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Quoting StormW:
We'll definitely know more when the G4 data comes out of the models.


G4 = Hurricane Hunter air plane
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Quoting leo305:
may even be moving ENE..
Lol, I think you're looking at the computer at a messed up angle.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
1330. leo305
Quoting Patrap:



Roger that...

One Hi and one Inbound to Alex


so there is a HH plane coming into Alex right now? Do you know how far they are from it? Aproximately how long until they get to the core
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i just don't see it going that fat west with this front coming down...granted i'm probably going to be wrong but to me i just don't get it....LA & MS might better look out...but that's just me and i like my crow fried please....lol
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Quoting DestinJeff:


mix all ingredients, bake at 350 for 30 minutes and you still have bad news for South Tx coming from those models.


You got that right. What other models are favoring S. Texas?
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No, Ima, just ordinary folks. Did you notice it's raining at the moment? Started about fifteen minutes ago.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
Link to Barometer Bob's show: http://www.hurricanehollow.com/
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Other than the ones on this blog, no one here in the Houston area seems concerned. The local news is saying we may get some rain from Alex. My 23 year old daughter didn't even know there was an "Alex". Ugh.
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1322. Patrap
Quoting washingaway:


I don't think I'm on the G-4, I turned that layer off????



Roger that...

One Hi and one Inbound to Alex
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133465
Quoting btwntx08:

that hwrf mskes two loops lol i just dont see it doing a loop twice


Lol, where are the two loops?
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Quoting pipelines:
Why are there so many people on here claiming the NHC, NWS, Dr.Masters, the billions of dollars worth of model runs, are all wrong? Where are your degrees in atmospheric science? Who are you to say the professionals are wrong? This blog is getting hard to read due to the many idiotic posts claiming NOLA landfall, cat 5 status, Florida landfall, random eye formation, bloody center relocation (please get a grip, center locations simply don't happen in well formed storms), rapid intensification (there isn't even a CDO to speak of right now!). If you have no idea what you're talking about (and if you have made any of the stated claims today, you have no idea what you're talking about) please refrain from posting sensationalist, ignorant claims. They bury the actual educated posts with garbage. Some of us want better insight into what may ACTUALLY happen.

Thank you.

Yay. Seems I'm not alone in noticing the de-evolution...back to painfully lurking. Not worth posting much atm.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Taking NHC a while with that 7:00 Advisory
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4454
Quoting Levi32:


Most definitely....another reason why this season is scary. The very fact that Alex is going to be coming in from the west, possibly deepening at landfall without a trough recurving it and shearing it, is phenomenal in June. This is not your typical season opener.


Yeah it is pretty weird. Another thing, about every other run the ECMWF been showing lows and some development off and on. Like a tran of them through the Caribbean and into the GOM. Scariest thing is that's showing a pattern that doesn't recurve them. Link
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Quoting StormW:
Barometer Bob is doing a special show tonight, and he's asked me to ask the gang here to tune in. He's having me on at around 8:30 p.m. Show starts at 8:00


Link?
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1314. leo305
may even be moving ENE..
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:


If they were talking about it being a let down they obviously were not in my house, during the storm lol


I don't know what people were saying on this blog after IKE. I was homeless. No electricity and certainly no internet
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Hey reedzone,where exactly is "north of southern TX"????,LOL....like what is the line of demarcaction between north tx and south tx??

I generally like to divide the Texas coastline into three segments: South, Central, and North. In my book, south extends from the mouth of the Rio Grande up to Corpus Christi Bay generally borders DSTX (Deep South Texas), and can be mostly associated with NWS Brownsville. Middle extends from Corpus Christi Bay to the mouth of the Colorado River, generally borders STX (South Texas), and can be mostly associated with NWS Corpus Christi. North takes up the rest of the coast to the Sabine Pass, generally borders SETX (Southeast Texas), and can be mostly associated with NWS Houston/Galveston. But that may just make sense because I live here... :P
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Quoting pipelines:
Why are there so many people on here claiming the NHC, NWS, Dr.Masters, the billions of dollars worth of model runs, are all wrong? Where are your degrees in atmospheric science? Who are you to say the professionals are wrong? This blog is getting hard to read due to the many idiotic posts claiming NOLA landfall, cat 5 status, Florida landfall, random eye formation, bloody center relocation (please get a grip, center locations simply don't happen in well formed storms), rapid intensification (there isn't even a CDO to speak of right now!). If you have no idea what you're talking about (and if you have made any of the stated claims today, you have no idea what you're talking about) please refrain from posting sensationalist, ignorant claims. They bury the actual educated posts with garbage. Some of us want better insight into what may ACTUALLY happen.

Thank you.




2 days ago alot of mets and the NHC,said the 2 out lying north models had feedback,and that appears not to be the case,I think the CMC is doing pretty darn well,alot of the time the knowledgable people on this blog point out things that might happen,before the offical forecasts do!!!
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1310. centex
It's dropped below 5K feet.
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Quoting StormW:


The G4?


Not sure. Think so. It just updated anyway so I can't post it.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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