Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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1606. bayoubug
12:42 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
oh no jim cantore in venice, la.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
1604. MiamiHurricanes09
12:42 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:


your behind lol

recon found pressure 987.9 and they arent quite in the center yet
LOL! Yeah, I figured it out. They aren't at the center yet so I bet that's not the lowest pressure.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1603. MrstormX
12:42 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Has Alex weakened or did the HH miss the COC? Lowest pressure is 991.5mb.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290034
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 24 20100629
002500 2059N 09203W 9246 00644 9961 +185 +172 052038 038 041 011 00
002530 2058N 09202W 9249 00640 9958 +188 +167 052036 037 038 010 00
002600 2057N 09201W 9245 00641 9955 +192 +163 051038 039 036 009 00
002630 2055N 09200W 9249 00636 9951 +197 +161 049038 040 036 007 00
002700 2054N 09159W 9245 00638 9949 +201 +160 044038 039 034 006 00
002730 2053N 09158W 9249 00632 9947 +202 +160 042037 038 034 003 03
002800 2052N 09157W 9252 00627 9942 +205 +161 042040 041 034 003 00
002830 2051N 09155W 9240 00635 9939 +206 +163 037038 039 033 004 03
002900 2050N 09154W 9249 00624 9935 +209 +165 037039 040 034 004 00
002930 2049N 09153W 9243 00626 9932 +206 +168 038042 043 035 002 00
003000 2048N 09151W 9246 00619 9927 +208 +171 039044 044 035 003 00
003030 2047N 09150W 9249 00611 9923 +203 +172 034044 046 037 006 00
003100 2046N 09149W 9251 00607 9919 +203 +173 035041 043 036 008 00
003130 2045N 09147W 9248 00605 9915 +201 +173 035038 040 039 007 00
003200 2044N 09146W 9249 00601 9909 +204 +172 030036 038 038 006 00
003230 2044N 09144W 9249 00595 9903 +207 +172 017030 034 035 006 03
003300 2043N 09143W 9248 00591 9896 +212 +172 009024 026 031 004 00
003330 2043N 09141W 9249 00586 9889 +223 +173 355023 024 026 006 03
003400 2043N 09139W 9244 00587 9882 +232 +175 354021 022 021 005 00
003430 2043N 09138W 9246 00581 9879 +230 +178 344017 019 020 005 03
$$
;


Look down
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1602. Skyepony (Mod)
12:42 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
Cloudsat pass a few minutes ago of Alex was a total miss. But the one before caught it. Brown on the bottom is the shape of the land there, where some Alex passed over. Gives a nice idea of mountain height to height of storm. Click pic for orientation of slice through storm (just right of center NNE to SSW).



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39400
1601. DestinDome
12:41 AM GMT on June 29, 2010
there it is
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
Can anyone tell me why the ignore user button sends me to a creat blog page?
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.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
1598. 7544
Quoting Seflhurricane:
this storm is more intresting as time goes by i have a real bad feeling about this this is going to pull a fast one on all of us


looks like alex is felling the trof is this trof the same one that pushed wilma or is it weaker just asking now tia
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.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Recon just found a 988 mb pressure.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290034
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 24 20100629
002500 2059N 09203W 9246 00644 9961 +185 +172 052038 038 041 011 00
002530 2058N 09202W 9249 00640 9958 +188 +167 052036 037 038 010 00
002600 2057N 09201W 9245 00641 9955 +192 +163 051038 039 036 009 00
002630 2055N 09200W 9249 00636 9951 +197 +161 049038 040 036 007 00
002700 2054N 09159W 9245 00638 9949 +201 +160 044038 039 034 006 00
002730 2053N 09158W 9249 00632 9947 +202 +160 042037 038 034 003 03
002800 2052N 09157W 9252 00627 9942 +205 +161 042040 041 034 003 00
002830 2051N 09155W 9240 00635 9939 +206 +163 037038 039 033 004 03
002900 2050N 09154W 9249 00624 9935 +209 +165 037039 040 034 004 00
002930 2049N 09153W 9243 00626 9932 +206 +168 038042 043 035 002 00
003000 2048N 09151W 9246 00619 9927 +208 +171 039044 044 035 003 00
003030 2047N 09150W 9249 00611 9923 +203 +172 034044 046 037 006 00
003100 2046N 09149W 9251 00607 9919 +203 +173 035041 043 036 008 00
003130 2045N 09147W 9248 00605 9915 +201 +173 035038 040 039 007 00
003200 2044N 09146W 9249 00601 9909 +204 +172 030036 038 038 006 00
003230 2044N 09144W 9249 00595 9903 +207 +172 017030 034 035 006 03
003300 2043N 09143W 9248 00591 9896 +212 +172 009024 026 031 004 00
003330 2043N 09141W 9249 00586 9889 +223 +173 355023 024 026 006 03
003400 2043N 09139W 9244 00587 9882 +232 +175 354021 022 021 005 00
003430 2043N 09138W 9246 00581 9879 +230 +178 344017 019 020 005 03
$$
;

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Quoting SavannahStorm:
Freakin Huge....


Alex is still kicking up some decent waves on the eastern side of Grand Cayman. 20 mph winds too.
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Cubam model has it going towards Corpus

Link

Moved northward from last night (was saying Brownsville then)

Pretty good model; had it bookmarked but then lost the link with new computer.
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1593. Detrina
Quoting RCThunder:


Small world Oldsmar too..


Work in Oldsmar, on Douglas, you guys get a lot of storm action there that we don't get in PH
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Quoting Grothar:
Could you imagine if we had to watch these? And no atmo, I wasn't around for the 1899 one. LOL.

Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
Did they have an evacuation plan at the nursing home for Carrie in '57 just in case?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HH are now approaching the COC of Alex. This can be noted because of the steady decrease and pressure. Lowest pressure found was 996.8mb, but they are still far from the COC.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290024
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 23 20100629
001500 2123N 09224W 9248 00671 9990 +201 +161 055033 034 034 011 00
001530 2122N 09223W 9247 00673 9993 +187 +161 051030 030 042 017 00
001600 2121N 09222W 9252 00667 9993 +185 +159 054030 032 039 015 00
001630 2119N 09220W 9249 00669 9992 +185 +156 054031 032 043 016 03
001700 2118N 09219W 9246 00670 9990 +188 +153 062033 034 038 018 03
001730 2117N 09218W 9245 00671 9989 +191 +151 061032 032 035 010 00
001800 2116N 09217W 9249 00666 9986 +199 +151 061031 032 032 009 00
001830 2115N 09216W 9254 00662 9984 +204 +152 063030 030 033 005 00
001900 2114N 09215W 9246 00666 9983 +204 +154 064029 029 033 003 00
001930 2113N 09214W 9249 00664 9981 +206 +157 062029 030 032 005 00
002000 2112N 09212W 9248 00665 9980 +208 +159 061029 029 033 004 00
002030 2111N 09211W 9254 00657 9979 +209 +160 059029 030 032 004 03
002100 2110N 09210W 9246 00663 9978 +207 +162 058032 032 032 004 00
002130 2110N 09210W 9246 00663 9976 +210 +164 059033 034 033 002 00
002200 2107N 09209W 9249 00658 9974 +207 +167 055034 035 032 004 00
002230 2105N 09208W 9248 00658 9973 +208 +169 051033 034 032 003 03
002300 2104N 09207W 9254 00651 9971 +209 +171 052034 035 030 004 03
002330 2103N 09206W 9246 00657 9969 +205 +174 052035 036 032 002 00
002400 2102N 09205W 9248 00651 9968 +202 +175 052037 038 031 006 00
002430 2100N 09204W 9246 00652 9969 +185 +175 054037 037 040 012 00
$$
;



your behind lol

recon found pressure 987.9 and they arent quite in the center yet
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003430 2043N 09138W 9246 00581 9879 230 178 344017 019 020 005 03

From recon in the COC earlier.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
HH are now approaching the COC of Alex. This can be noted because of the steady decrease and pressure. Lowest pressure found was 996.8mb, but they are still far from the COC.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290024
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 23 20100629
001500 2123N 09224W 9248 00671 9990 +201 +161 055033 034 034 011 00
001530 2122N 09223W 9247 00673 9993 +187 +161 051030 030 042 017 00
001600 2121N 09222W 9252 00667 9993 +185 +159 054030 032 039 015 00
001630 2119N 09220W 9249 00669 9992 +185 +156 054031 032 043 016 03
001700 2118N 09219W 9246 00670 9990 +188 +153 062033 034 038 018 03
001730 2117N 09218W 9245 00671 9989 +191 +151 061032 032 035 010 00
001800 2116N 09217W 9249 00666 9986 +199 +151 061031 032 032 009 00
001830 2115N 09216W 9254 00662 9984 +204 +152 063030 030 033 005 00
001900 2114N 09215W 9246 00666 9983 +204 +154 064029 029 033 003 00
001930 2113N 09214W 9249 00664 9981 +206 +157 062029 030 032 005 00
002000 2112N 09212W 9248 00665 9980 +208 +159 061029 029 033 004 00
002030 2111N 09211W 9254 00657 9979 +209 +160 059029 030 032 004 03
002100 2110N 09210W 9246 00663 9978 +207 +162 058032 032 032 004 00
002130 2110N 09210W 9246 00663 9976 +210 +164 059033 034 033 002 00
002200 2107N 09209W 9249 00658 9974 +207 +167 055034 035 032 004 00
002230 2105N 09208W 9248 00658 9973 +208 +169 051033 034 032 003 03
002300 2104N 09207W 9254 00651 9971 +209 +171 052034 035 030 004 03
002330 2103N 09206W 9246 00657 9969 +205 +174 052035 036 032 002 00
002400 2102N 09205W 9248 00651 9968 +202 +175 052037 038 031 006 00
002430 2100N 09204W 9246 00652 9969 +185 +175 054037 037 040 012 00
$$
;

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1588. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.4N/91.5W


Now that really is an interesting image. Could be Alex is going to pull a quarterback sneak on us. That would be interesting. Maybe Alex isn't really stationary, just not moving. (lol)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting cyclonekid:
Hurricane Bret (1999)



It looks so small compared to Alex right now!

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I live in Oldsmar and we just got hit with a very nice storm.


Small world Oldsmar too..
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Quoting nash28:


Agreed on "some hurricanes can bust the high." However...

This particular storm is NOT going to be deep enough to bust the high. Not even close. Dean could have been a good candidate to bust the high, but even Dean could not do that. It didn't help that the high was a ridiculous MB! But I digress.... This system is not going to pull a Wilma type turn.


If only the NHC had you working for them on the forcast track.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
wow this thing looks a hole lot better it even looks like a closed eye wall starting too pop up

Link
yep agreed
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
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Freakin Huge....


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Interesting that H(ypercane)WRF is so far below the OFCL intensity forecast for a change. (though it did get some changes, IIRC)


(of course, none of the models are accounting for the hurricane hunter prop wash spinning Alex up into the cat 5 so many here are counting on)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Grothar:
Could you imagine if we had to watch these? And no atmo, I wasn't around for the 1899 one. LOL.

Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
ROFLMAO!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
look at the black line is pointing at

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1576. will45
Alex has set there tooooooooooooooo long to catch the weakness
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1574. Grothar
Could you imagine if we had to watch these? And no atmo, I wasn't around for the 1899 one. LOL.

Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
looks like a little dry air slot coming in on that west/northwest side and helping to stunt intensification?
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1572. Daveg
Hmmm, a few of these models have changed since the last run (the GFS and HWRF). (They were going hard left into Mex the last time around)... Is it a deeper trough that they are trying to pick up on or what?

Link
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1571. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.4N/91.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Quoting Roark:
Taz: Not JVF, sorry. Longtime lurker / firstime poster. Definite Noob here. :)




ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1569. GBguy88
Is it my imagination, or does Alex seem to be expanding in a rather large way? I wonder if this will turn into an Ike-like situation, where the storm gains diameter rather than an excessive increase in winds.

Also, for those who might feel the need to know...I just came in from the beach, and the waves are definitely acting to bring more oil on the beach. Not only is there more on the beach than I've ever seen, you can also see large mats of it floating just offshore and coming in with the waves. Not good. I'd say surf is running between waist and chest high.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
Hurricane Bret (1999)

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wow this thing looks a hole lot better it even looks like a closed eye wall starting too pop up

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Honey BBQ or Chipotle? LOL


Maybe Jalapeño LOL!!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:




any where form TX too LA and it could be come a strong cat 4 or low end cat 5


Taz, you got a new avatar! I didn't even recognize you. Also, I'm not sure there really is a "low end" cat 5. LOL
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Quoting jlp09550:


Are you sure your barometer is correct? I'm in Vermilion parish near the coast and recording 1012.9 mb, rising slowly..

Average reading from official obs around the area is about 1012 mb.
http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=LAZ040&local_place=Covington+LA&zoneid=CDT&offset =18000
Has trended down over the last couple of days a little with the approaching trough, exclusive of diurnal cycles.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1561. Roark
Taz: Not JVF, sorry. Longtime lurker / firstime poster. Definite Noob here. :)
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I live in Northern La, Monroe, & My pressure was 1007 this morning & now down to 1005 WOW!!& Yes, this has been calibrated with altitude & so on.. This is a $900.00 Weather Station. It may be wrong,but I have owned it for 3 years now & it's been pretty darn accurate..
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i think people need to calm down. this is all opinion, and if you want to just listen to the nhc then go on their web site. why come to a blog that has people giving their opinion, and take personal offense to people's opinion? it makes no sense. the blog is for everyone who has an opinion. i'm not saying leave, but i am saying stop complaining cuz everybody don't have the same opinion as you or the nhc. we come here to kick ideas around, give opinion, and if possible teach each other a thing or two. storms are unpredictable. the forecast has changed more than once from nhc. it will continue to change until it makes landfall. storms change course all the time. no reason to call people ignorant. if everyone was the same this world would suck!:)i am an adult, and i will conduct myself as one. i come here to get the different aspect from people and look at satellite and then maybe even give my own opinion. i would not ever call someone ignorant for having an opinion different than mine. its weather it will do what it wants not what statistics tell it to do. i will come back later and hopefully people aren't bickering about opinions on weather.:)
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Quoting IKE:


You okay?


LOL! Good question!
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I was kinda mad today. OPIS - an oil industry reporting service - had an article saying Alex likely to landfall in Mexico or Texas. (As a way to alert those of us working in the energy industry.)

Took a lot of stuff in this blog (the early AM one) but I thought Rob Carter had written it - they didn't attribute to him. He had written the late night one.

I sent a terse note.

Ooopps. I've been reading too many blogs - they all runnin' together in my head.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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