Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tkeith:
he didn't need much encouragement did he...


Nope.. he just skimmed it off the blog and creamed it.
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2355. Patrap
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125619
Wow, the weather ch. is all over it...they just now reported that Alex "may be" getting stronger.

LOL!
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The COC of Alex says BOOM! That's an explotion going on there!
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Quoting Grothar:
First time I've seen this all day. A really big burst near the center. It must be that diurnal thing you all talk about.



Way too early for D Max which is not good news either.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2351. jpsb
Quoting jsit:
I dont know where the thing is going
I spend the day getting my sailboat and yard ready, plus I did not plant my late season tomato plants so I now for sure it is NOT coming to Galveston. Had I not gotten ready, I'd be worried, yall Galveston folks can thank me later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Quoting Grothar:
First time I've seen this all day. A really big burst near the center. It must be that diurnal thing you all talk about.


nope its sustaining itself now
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2348. tkeith
Quoting Orcasystems:


OMG, not you to :(
he didn't need much encouragement did he...
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2347. Chigz
NHC reports

03 GMT 06/29/10 21.0N 91.6W
65 mph, 985 mb Tropical Storm

They are not calling a NNE movement - sticking to NORTH!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


OMG, you guys are making an old sailor cringe... your massacring the terminology :(

Its 010.. 10 degrees off of north...Northerly is close enough.


Got it SIR!
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2345. Drakoen
It is going to take sometime for the winds to catch up due to the system's large size, however, once the core and the CDO becomes better defined and tighter the system will be able to translate the pressure drops and winds more adequately
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2343. Grothar
First time I've seen this all day. A really big burst near the center. It must be that diurnal thing you all talk about.

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Quoting RTLSNK:


I just can't make up my mind, I'm sort of half and half on the whole idea! :)


OMG, not you to :(
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Hurricane Alex is born!!!!

WHAT WHERE I JUST Check nhc post info to back it up
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2340. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125619
again...
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Drak.....in all the earlier tracks and forecasts do you know if they took into effect the N motion that it's taking? Or possibly the NNE motion that some or saying right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 290242
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 91.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 91.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 91.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.2N 92.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.6N 93.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 95.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.2N 96.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 91.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Quoting KaNaPaPiJoSa:


same as ike...huge but slow


That isn't a very nice thing to say about IKE. He's one of my favorite bloggers here.
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Quoting Patrap:
I wanna see if Alex can fill that Bigger envelope Drak.


If he does.

Oil..vey !

pat alex is so big the no matter where he goes he will affect the oil that is the truth
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Hurricane Alex is born!!!!
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2332. Skyepony (Mod)
The difference between the Maximum Flight Level Temp inside & outside the center has been an unimpressive 2ºC since Alex stepped off the Yucatan until the last pass. Now it's 4..& so strengthening has begun..

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 756m (2,480ft)
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Sorry hit the wrong blog
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2330. eye
Alex still needs to filter out that huge dry slot.
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There is about a 10mile difference between the two low pressure readings per Google Earth, so its still a slow mover for sure.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
2328. Drakoen
Looks like Alex has developed a central dense overcast
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2327. RTLSNK
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


That's udderly ridiculous


I just can't make up my mind, I'm sort of half and half on the whole idea! :)
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00Z models please
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Quoting errantlythought:
Hypothesis: The size of the hurricane is an indirect determining factor on wind speed as related to pressure.

Basically, inertia: As Alex is a monstrously large storm, that massively deep pressure for its strength SEEMS massive, but translates to a weaker system in wind speed because of the energy required to spin the damn thing.
Ding! Ding! Ding!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2324. txjac
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
No Wilma was a hurricane at the time but that was the lowest pressure recorded in a storm.


What number hurricane was Wilma ...2, 3, 4?
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2322. angiest
Quoting uptxcoast:
Houston's Fox Affiliate just reported a change in models that were converging on Corpus Christi. He also said the models would move again. Went to store for some groceries and all the water and beer are gone. I guess some people are paying attention.


Well, there's been a beer run, guess this is serious. ;)

Have people converged on Shiner yet?
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Quoting uptxcoast:
Houston's Fox Affiliate just reported a change in models that were converging on Corpus Christi. He also said the models would move again. Went to store for some groceries and all the water and beer are gone. I guess some people are paying attention.


good to hear. If i lived in Mid to south texas i would be stocking up right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection flaring up in the COC, but look at the outer spiral bands bringing all those thunderstorms over Texas, Florida and Cuba. This is just bizarre, and if those bands stay attatched, this is going to be one megagigantic hurricane.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Basic northward motion with the slightest hint of eastward motion. I would say Alex is moving slowly towards the NNE.



Probably is roughly 010. If it were 350 the advisory would certainly state NNW. I am sure the advisory will state N. That would be my political advice to the NHC. lol Oh, I forgot, the NHC is immune to politics.
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Quoting errantlythought:
Hypothesis: The size of the hurricane is an indirect determining factor on wind speed as related to pressure.

Basically, inertia: As Alex is a monstrously large storm, that massively deep pressure for its strength SEEMS massive, but translates to a weaker system in wind speed because of the energy required to spin the damn thing.


same as ike...huge but slow
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2317. Patrap
I wanna see if Alex can fill that Bigger envelope Drak.


If he does.

Oil..vey !
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125619
2316. Drakoen
Quoting tkeith:
can you tell from those frames if the forward motion has picked up the pace?...still seems to be crawling to me...


Seems to have picked up a little speed
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Misleading yet truthful tools

IR2 floater

Oh wait...

There's the entire circulation!

Ooo. This entire circulation? Let's start the evacuations of Memphis!

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Drakoen:
Much better organized:



The core will very soon be isolated from external negative forces. The next step after that is Cat 1 once the winds respond.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2313. drj27
i will never forget this hurricane jus saying
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new blog is up
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2310. scott39
Hey you northeasters, Alexs got to make a lot of latitude due N without going any W to hit the W side of LA. What are the odds in that happening? Texas has alot of real estate.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like just east of due north.


OMG, you guys are making an old sailor cringe... your massacring the terminology :(

Its 010.. 10 degrees off of north...Northerly is close enough.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like just east of due north.


You see that that too? That's not good.
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No Wilma was a hurricane at the time but that was the lowest pressure recorded in a storm.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.