Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting guygee:

"When I hold you in my spiral bands..."


Quoting guygee:

"When I hold you in my spiral bands..."



"And feel my finger on your outer bands..."

Howdy,Flood. I sent you a sarcastic comment earlier, but you must have gotten up to feed the cats.
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Nice post, Savannah.
Thanks.
Strengthening, yes.
Upwelling cold water would be nice.
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I am wondering whether the swells and winds mentioned in Dr. M's update will be headache enough, even if Alex turns to the left as expected.

Quoting Orcasystems:


???? its going 010 @ 6 kts
Unless it resumes its proper track... its going straight to the oil.
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2503. WxLogic
Quoting errantlythought:


Honest Question: Shouldn't you be using the 750-850mb map rather than the 400-850? At the 500 level and 750 that high is weakening.


Not really... because Alex is becoming more organized (therefore the pressure drop) which will then allow it to "feel" more atmosphere and be driven more by higher altitude steering currents.
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2502. ssmate
Quoting Tazmanian:
am i talking to a window how many times do i have too tell you guys youdo not need heat potential for a cat 4 or 5 storm this look at are past storm in the E pac it did not have any heat potential at all but still got up too cat 5
Taz, I think you meant wall, brick wall. but I can live with window.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Wasnt Darby a male name?

wow he's the largest "happy" storm in america
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I would much prefer a hit on TX/MX then the oil.


The oil is going to get piled up on the coastal areas....the big question is how much.
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2498. Grothar
Quoting winter123:

Thing is, it's on the far northern edge of the NHC's cone. So shouldnt they be adjusting the cone to include more of texas and less of mexico? And why are the 00Z models still initializing NNW or even NW if it's confirmed to be moving N??


I really don't know. It certainly looks more Northerly to me on that image. Depends on how it reacts when it gets a little more organized. If we are dealing with a stronger system, which is now possible. Some adjustments will have to be made again.
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2497. twooks
Quoting JLPR2:


Wasnt Darby a male name?


Was it? :x err Stepbrother :P
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Quoting winter123:


I'd agree with you, to an extent. I'd say the fact that it is underneath this larger pattern is the reason it is defying models left and right. I'll compare it to the largest tropical cyclone ever, Typhoon Tip (1979). It created such a large sphere of influence that it was basically shear free and just went wherever. I have a feeling a similar thing happening here. Whether Alex created this weather pattern or not is up for grabs...

Alex


Tip
That's a bad comparison. You can't compare a tropical storm to the strongest hurricane ever.
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Quoting scott39:
Nobody needs to be happy if Alex is going N. It needs to go to the COWS!

Right. And get in and outa' there as quick as possible. The last thing we want is a cyclone that sits on the coast. We want to minimize the amount of time that this large windfield has in the oil area. I think with the size of this cyclone the windfield expands and the tale of this storm will be how strong the effects that it has on driving that &%#$ oil onshore.
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2494. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Ya gotta go up to the next layer...500-850
Storm is there any chance for Alex to be between to highs and shoot towards the weakness?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
Miami - that track looks about right. But I say strong Cat-2, low-end Cat 3 at landfall.
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Quoting bappit:

God, please save us from the term "megagigantic". The thunderstorms over Texas and Mexico currently are definitely not part of Alex. I would also assert that the clouds over the eastern Gulf are not part of Alex either. We got a big weather pattern with a tropical storm embedded in it. I disagree with the Doctor that 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico is covered by Alex.

If you want to argue it as a glass half-full/half-empty kind of thing, okay--but pushing the all-encompassing tropical storm circulation idea creates a problem since how do you tell where any tropical storm leaves off and the rest of the atmosphere holds sway. It all becomes one muddled mess.

I vote for a big weather pattern with a tropical storm embedded in it.


I'd agree with you, to an extent. I'd say the fact that it is underneath this larger pattern is the reason it is defying models left and right. I'll compare it to the largest tropical cyclone ever, Typhoon Tip (1979). It created such a large sphere of influence that it was basically shear free and just went wherever. I have a feeling a similar thing happening here. Whether Alex created this weather pattern or not is up for grabs...

Alex


Tip
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2491. JLPR2
Quoting twooks:


Alex ate his stepsister... sad. She just wanted to live and be healthy like Ceila...


Wasnt Darby a male name?
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

flood she was A CAT at her hieght or a cat 5


How shiort folks mewmory is...Wilma was a CAT 5 hurricane at the height of her power; at ladnmfall she was a CAT 3
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
AMD, but we should get some rain though right? We need it.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
IMHO, he doesn't have the OHC or the time to get anywhere close to Ike's, ahh, IKE (integrated kinetic energy).


It MAY reach the same wind speed but no where near the wind feild.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Ok Alex, you can take that west turn anytime now.... Gettin nervous here in SELA.
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2486. bappit
Quoting Orcasystems:


Happiness is a long walk down a fairway carrying a putter :)

Amen.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Thank You. Some don't seem to understand that.


Echoed.
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am i talking to a window how many times do i have too tell you guys youdo not need heat potential for a cat 4 or 5 storm this look at are past storm in the E pac it did not have any heat potential at all but still got up too cat 5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114653
2483. bappit
Link

I'll go with the area in yellow on this 850 mb vorticity map as the area of Alex. It is still large for a tropical storm. That would be a good sized hurricane.
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Quoting WxLogic:
A/B High starting to bridge (at least attempting to) with the developing high in the 4 Corners region... but there's still a decent weakness in the Louisiana area.



The N to NNE component might continue for a couple hours, but if the A/B keeps building west as the weakness closes up north then NHC track will hold... might not even matter how much N progress it makes... the building High N of Texas will be able put it back on track.


Honest Question: Shouldn't you be using the 750-850mb map rather than the 400-850? At the 500 level and 750 that high is weakening.
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Changing the subject only briefly, the NHC's been announcing the arrival of this one for two days.

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How much oil gets moved by four days of SW winds in Louiana, Mississippi, and Alabama is really the $64,000 question......
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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
NHC fairly certain that Alex will be making landfall around the Mexico/Texas border since they issued a hurricane warning. My current thinking takes Alex to a category 2 storm before landfall but not much more since there isn't much TCHP stored up for a Alex to rapidly intensify and turn into anything major.

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2477. scott39
Quoting P451:


It is feeling the trough. And then it will feel the ridge and head back WNW. This, again, according to the models.

Anyone from Brownsville to NOLA should be ready but chances are we're looking at a northern Mexico landfall...or maybe SE Texas.

Can't rule anything out....yet...again...what we are seeing here is exactly what ALL models picked up on: Alex responding to the trough - and then when it lifts out he responds to the ridge that builds back in.

How strong is the ridge right now and how many hours until its suppossed to build in?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6728
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I mean this in no disrespect to the people of texas or mexico - but thank goodness this thing is headed away from the oil spill region and the northern gulf states. Whew!

Bullet....dodged!


Last time I checked, you can't claim success in dodging a bullet until the bullet is past you...not any kind of 'casting, I'm just saying.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Orca - let me clarify - not going to make a direct hit on the oil region. But, the stronger Alex gets - the higher swells for the region I agree.


I would much prefer a hit on TX/MX then the oil.
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Quoting Chicklit:






haha. it looks like alex has an evil [nice?] identical twin over by the bahamas.

Question: havent looked at any e.pacific images today. But did alex eat darby yet, or did whatever was left of it just fade away.

edit: nevermind... just saw the previous post(s)
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2472. twooks
Quoting stillwaiting:
Hey storm,check out the new steering for 700-850???looks like a NNW shot towards the TX/LA border,but i don't know the high is also noted as stregthening /building east over the plains,also noticed it looks like alex has ingested/ing darbies energy!!!


Alex ate his stepsister... sad. She just wanted to live and be healthy like Ceila...
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Quoting atmoaggie:
IMHO, he doesn't have the OHC or the time to get anywhere close to Ike's, ahh, IKE (integrated kinetic energy).


Let's hope so.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
alex is going to be a hurricane by 8am..it continues to grow in size and intensity.alex has picked up forward speed and its moving nne..the weakness between both the highs is still very dominate over alex right now..alex is gaining latitude now and all you people on the upper texas and sw la coast should be getting things in order in case this weak high does not have any affect on alex..the size of alex will be hard to turn in any direction as he continues to grow and feed on the warm ssts..if alex passes the 25 degree latitude still moving n or nne then we will know the high is not strong enough to push alex nw or wnw..imo i would take mexico out of the equation it's a texas and sw la storm now..i look for a major change when the models digest all this new info later tonight or in the morning....
Hey there youy are I know you remember the talk we had about what this storm would not do for us in the North Gulf Coast (about 2 or 3 days ago), but I wanted to say we were already going to have waves from 7 to 10 foot high this week from this storm. Now with this being a "High Cat 2 maybe a Low end Cat3 our waves will reach about 12'and even more Oil than what we really didnot need....

Taco :o)
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2468. MZV
I'm getting the impression this is going to be a Frances-like experience wherever it lands. Big, slow moving storm that feels like it takes 2 or 3 days to clear out.
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2467. 7544
Quoting RecordSeason:
Can throw out all of these. They have already failed.


props to you record good call there
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2466. angiest
Quoting bappit:

God, please save us from the term "megagigantic". The thunderstorms over Texas and Mexico currently are definitely not part of Alex. >


I have been watching those storms in grlevel3 and they do not have any motion resembling a feeder band. Looks like an illusion that it is connected to the circulation.
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 290248
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE
THAT THE STORM IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 68 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED WINDS WERE 53 KT.
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 985 MB...A RATHER LOW VALUE FOR A TROPICAL STORM.
BASED ON THE WIND MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
STORM HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4. THIS MOTION IS BELIEVED TO
BE TEMPORARY BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT.
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO THE
NORTH DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS WELL. ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AVERAGE
TRACK FORECAST ERROR IN THE 48- TO 72-HOUR TIME FRAME IS 100-150
NAUTICAL MILES.

THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING ALEX HAS ABATED AND THE SHIPS
MODEL DIAGNOSES A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR...TO BELOW 10 KT IN 24
HOURS. AS ALEX MOVES AWAY FROM THE SHELF WATERS NEAR THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN...IT SHOULD PASS OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTED TRACK IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF A WARM EDDY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF. IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS STILL DO NOT FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS WE SPEAK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE STATISTICAL LGEM GUIDANCE...AND IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LATEST 36-HR FORECAST POINT AND THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST...IT IS TIME TO UPGRADE
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.0N 91.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 22.2N 92.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 23.6N 93.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 95.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.2N 96.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 25.7N 99.6W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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So finally Alex is beginning to move. Now at 5mph.
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Quoting Progster:


no, just ding...Total energy can be similar for a (for example) small cat 3 and a very large TS. Total angular momentum is what makes Alex both slow and potentially deadly. And the non-linear aspect of intensification means it doesn't have to be that slow, either...
IMHO, he doesn't have the OHC or the time to get anywhere close to Ike's, ahh, IKE (integrated kinetic energy).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
@2410 Patrap

Thanks for posting that vid, as a lurker I have learned a ton from all of you knowledgable folks. I am intensly interested in hot tower formations as they are somewhat unusual in how high the clouds go.

Thanks again :)
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Orca - let me clarify - not going to make a direct hit on the oil region. But, the stronger Alex gets - the higher swells for the region I agree.
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Quoting StormW:


I guess Alex is starting to MOOOOOve!


Et tu, brute?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2458. amd
Quoting nolachick:
whats the changes of it moving more towards houston?


IMHO, relatively low (<20%). Looks like there will be a good enough high developing north of Alex to push it wnw to the upper northern mexico coast, or at least get it very close to the coast.

Then, it is possible that the storm can wobble north, but I would think that Alex would eventually come ashore well south of Houston (whether in extreme southern Texas or extreme northern Mexico).
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Well, I gotta run... I know a super cute 3 year old that is going to wake me up awfully early.

Check in tomorrow AM after I drop the kiddo off at school.

Good night all... even Pete.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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