Alex continues to slowly organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it steams away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms continue to increase in areal extent, and low level spirals bands are slowly building to the south and north. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix, at 12:07 pm CDT, showed a central pressures of 990 mb, a 1 mb rise in six hours. Top winds were holding steady near 60 mph. Alex has stalled out the last few hours, as it began to "feel" the trough of low pressure to its north breaking down the high pressure ridge that has been pushing the storm to the west-northwest. This stall has allowed the storm to churn up cold water from the depths, which is probably interfering with development. Satellite loops show that Alex has a very large circulation covering about 2/3 of the Gulf of Mexico. We can expect that should Alex become a Category 2 or stronger hurricane, its storm surge will affect a much wider stretch of coast than Hurricane Dolly of 2008 did.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 12 UTC (7am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models have come into much better agreement. A consensus forecast arrived at by averaging together most or all of the tracks of our top models--the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, UKMET, and GFDN--is pretty much what NHC always uses as the basis of their forecast. This consensus forecast has narrowed in on the region just south of the Texas/Mexico border as being the most likely landfall location, with the usual cone of uncertainty surrounding it. The computer model that had been making the northernmost landfall predictions, the Canadian model, is now projecting a landfall 100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. There has been a general southward shift of the models in their latest runs, and the most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The earliest landfall time is Wednesday morning, and the latest is Thursday morning. Which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 day forecast period were the GFS, Canadian, ECMWF, and GFDL.

With steering currents relatively weak, the uncertainty in landfall location is high. The average error in an NHC 72-hour track forecast last year was 230 miles, which is about the distance from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. Consider also that the NHC cone of uncertainty is the region where 2/3 of the time (using the last 5 years of statistics) the center of a storm will go. Forecast errors tend to be equally large along track (speed errors) and cross-track (deviations from side-to-side), so that means that about 20% of the time a storm will not be in the cone of uncertainty. Given the slow motion of Alex and the recent uncertainty of the computer models, people living just beyond the edge of the cone of uncertainty should not be confident yet that Alex will miss them.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 10am CDT (15 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 67% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 16% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

La Pesco, MX: 49% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 31% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

Corpus Christi, TX: 45% tropical storm, 6% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 23% tropical storm, 2% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 21% tropical storm, 1% hurricane.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 42 nm
24 hours: 73 nm
36 hours: 96 nm
48 hours: 112 nm
72 hours: 173 nm
96 hours: 327 nm
120 hours: 376 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm
72 hours: 161 nm
96 hours: 220 nm
120 hours: 285 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 72 hours are 4% - 17% higher in uncertainty than average. The 4 - 5 day forecasts are 32% - 49% more uncertain than average--but of course, we expect Alex to be inland at those times.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical storm formation over the the next seven days in the Atlantic.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex will not directly affect the oil slick location, other than to bring 2 - 4 foot swells to the region on Wednesday. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast winds of 15 - 25 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Wednesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Hurricane season is here, and Haiti is not ready. Over 1.5 million Haitians are living outside in tents or under tarps, and are highly vulnerable to a hurricane. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 3. Still frame from the remarkable video taken inside the Haitian Presidential Palace during the 2010 earthquake.

To remind people of just how devastating the earthquake was, the Haitian government released a video earlier this month showing the inside of the Haitian Presidential Palace during the mighty Haitian earthquake.

Next post
Dr. Rob Carver is planning on making a post late tonight, and I'll have an update by 9:30am CDT on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
I was looking at that ULL on OPC's forecast page, and they are suggesting it will be over the NW Bahamas by Wednesday but disappated by Friday....


Thanks. Looking at the current water vapor, it appears the ULL will be over the Bahamas today, Tuesday.
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Quoting guygee:
I do like that one, especially for the labeled color map with good contrasts. I hate when the color maps are not labeled, then they are different for different satellites in a composite, or shift from day to night, or over/under-saturated...
Yeah, is nice. For example, I can tell you that Alex's bog blob of convection's cloud tops warmed a tad in the last hour.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec5ir 404
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sounds right to me.


To me too, I think the ridge is going to start likely sooner than later to force Alex to a more NW component and then to a WNW movement. My guess 50-70 miles south of the border.
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2754. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
NNE motion couldn't last forever....new heading since last vortex fix is 330 degrees.

Levi. does it look like on the Sat that Alex is starting to go more NNW?
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2753. ryang
GFS looks to be stalling Alex right off the coast.
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Quoting truecajun:


that's what i'm thinking. this one is for Texas. there i said it. this is the first time i have ever "called" a storm on here. i'm a little nervous :0


Yes for all of us in the Northern Gulf, Texas this is your storm for the taking.
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2750. Skyepony (Mod)
Alex tore up Darby this afternoon.
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2749. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, about the rainfall, sunlight,etc. Umm, nose joway.
Lacking sunlight for a few days and, ahh, let's go big, 45 inches of rain, is not going to cool 30 meters (90 feet+) of water in a measurable way if the water were uniformly warm for the whole column.

BUT, these waters are not warm all the way down. Our best examples of deep, warm waters get that way over years and years in the tropics. Shelf waters, even in the BOC had both a cold winter and guess where colder fresh water from the land flow goes. Under the warm surface waters.

I also used to question if the TCHP really did capture the depth of warm waters on the shelf. Eventually worked out that it really cannot be full column warm mixed as there are no currents to force stably stratified colder water 10 meters+ below to the surface and conduction isn't going to do it.

Some of this is a bit on the supposition side. If anyone knows better and has info to share, please do. (preferably with some links)


Well that's probably true, and evaporation from the storm is of course the biggest cooler in that situation. I was a little surprised to find the depth products showing a nearly uniformly warm layer above 26C. Good point about the runoff from land. If that's the case, then true upwelling may still occur in that area.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
#2737: Wow. Cool Pat.
Night all.
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2747. tkeith
Quoting Drakoen:


The GFS recieved 2/3 of the data. Refer to post 2559.
lookin back...thanks
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Question.. this may have already been asked and answered but.... Is Alex feeding on what is left of Darby?
That would make it a cannibalistic 'cane... OUCH!
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2745. Drakoen
Quoting tkeith:
wouldn't the GFS have the most data from the GIV from today?


The GFS recieved 2/3 of the data. Refer to post 2559.
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Quoting scott39:
Yea glad I cleared that up! LOL He said it all thru the newscast so i doubt he said it wrong.

Scott39, which news station were you watching?
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2743. Asta
Quoting LightningCharmer:


Flash is usually less resource intensive but Flash crashes Firefox on Linux. The latest release notes on Firefox claim this has been fixed.

The other issue of this Flash switch-over is with www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes loops. Is it just me ... do the Java loops auto update and the Flash do not?

Overall I agree that Flash uses less resources than Java unless our friends at Adobe keep making it bigger and hungrier, and then worse than Oracle's Java monster.

Of course will Microsoft's Silverlight get into the game? Don't count out Apple and Google as far as active scripting goes. We shall all see.


Flash always compresses data better.. . I agree- I hope Adobe doesn't mess with it. I prefer my data in Flash- easier to compress and protect from import too.
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thank you storm. got it.
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2741. Patrap
Balance..'




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128236
Quoting Levi32:


Rotation of the earth?
I think he means the Coriolis effect, as when there is very weak steering a system just moves NE with the Coriolis.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2739. Levi32
Well...0z GFS landfall didn't change much, same as 12z run which was south of the 18z run.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


wow...Baha our once very knowledgable and resourceful blog is
turning into Romper-Room!


People are getting frustrated with the kiddie stuff.
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2737. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128236
Time: 03:41:00Z
Coordinates: 21.0667N 91.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.8 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 557 meters (~ 1,827 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 985.4 mb (~ 29.10 inHg)
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nite y'all.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well believing no one would be a start lol. Figure it out on your own.

It probably is....26C isotherm products show the depth of the 26c isotherm being nearly equal to the depth of the ocean on the Yucatan shelf (only around 100-150 feet in the entire area).

But this isn't upwelling of cold water from the depths, because there are no depths. I suppose it can't technically be called upwelling, but if a storm sits there and churns the water for a long time, the shallow ocean layer cools rapidly by evaporation and rainfall falling into it, as well as the lack of sunlight under storm clouds.

Well, about the rainfall, sunlight,etc. Umm, nose joway.
Lacking sunlight for a few days and, ahh, let's go big, 45 inches of rain, is not going to cool 30 meters (90 feet+) of water in a measurable way if the water were uniformly warm for the whole column.

BUT, these waters are not warm all the way down. Our best examples of deep, warm waters get that way over years and years in the tropics. Shelf waters, even in the BOC had both a cold winter and guess where colder fresh water from the land flow goes. Under the warm surface waters.

I also used to question if the TCHP really did capture the depth of warm waters on the shelf. Eventually worked out that it really cannot be full column warm mixed as there are no currents to force stably stratified colder water 10 meters+ below to the surface and conduction isn't going to do it.

Some of this is a bit on the supposition side. If anyone knows better and has info to share, please do. (preferably with some links)
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2733. Levi32
Quoting Asta:

Thanks for posting this Drak- Great imagery- However Why, with the roatation of the earth and the pull of the trough, wouldn't Alex move more North -instead of west?


Rotation of the earth?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting StormW:


Well, right now, it's not allowing the subtropical ridge nose in west enough to give Alex that nudge westward. Once the ridge starts to nose in, he should turn.


Thank you...
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2731. Daveg
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2730. Levi32
NNE motion couldn't last forever....new heading since last vortex fix is 330 degrees.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 00z just south of the Texas/Mexico border
That helps....thanks. I might be able to sleep tonight. Gnight all. Signing out from Houston
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2727. tkeith
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 00z just south of the Texas/Mexico border
wouldn't the GFS have the most data from the GIV from today?
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2726. Skyepony (Mod)
Not been so on top of the model's average error..mainly since they are having a hard time with this storm. A model has yet to have less than 50nm average error in a day. Which is really poor performance compared to their skill with most storms. BAMD has done best overall with 60nm error the last 24hrs & 125 on it's 4 day forecast. Also showing a little skill above the others is the other BAM models, gfs ensemble & cmc.
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2725. WxLogic
There we go... that turn to the NW is starting to materialize. NHC is doing a great job.
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Quoting Patrap:
Nitey tkeith,



Moooooooooooooooooooo...
LOL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2723. Drakoen
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Drakoen, by when will the G4 flight data be inputed onto the models?


It has been put into the GFS, assuming the other models will recieve the data as well.
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2722. Asta
Quoting Drakoen:
Excellent Water Vapor Loop... You can see the 500mb trough through the Ohio River Valley extending down into the Mississippi River Valley. You can also see the ridge over the northwestern United States that will aid in bring Alex westward.

Thanks for posting this Drak- Great imagery- However Why, with the rotation of the earth and the pull of the trough, wouldn't Alex move more North -instead of west?
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Quoting LightningCharmer:


You mention the Bahamian Upper Level Low(ULL). I was asking about it earlier this afternoon but had to get back to work, and this blog goes so fast didn't notice if anyone answered. Do you think it will affect the path of Alex, or will it arrive after Alex has made landfall?
I was looking at that ULL on OPC's forecast page, and they are suggesting it will be over the NW Bahamas by Wednesday but dissippated by Friday....
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 00z just south of the Texas/Mexico border
Sounds right to me.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
hey Stormw is it possible that if Alex intensifies that it could prevent the ridge from nosing westward and shoot the gap north between the ridge and the trough just curious.
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gfs operational 48h

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2717. Patrap
Nitey tkeith,



Moooooooooooooooooooo...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128236
2716. Levi32
Looks like still 985mb.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290344
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 43 20100629
033500 2051N 09125W 9250 00613 9922 +212 +202 202052 052 037 005 00
033530 2053N 09126W 9254 00604 9916 +210 +203 203053 053 040 003 00
033600 2054N 09128W 9249 00602 9909 +210 +205 206055 056 040 004 00
033630 2055N 09129W 9245 00601 9902 +210 +207 209053 054 041 007 00
033700 2056N 09130W 9245 00594 9895 +210 +208 212054 055 042 005 00
033730 2057N 09131W 9243 00588 9885 +215 +209 213049 053 043 003 00
033800 2059N 09133W 9250 00576 9879 +218 +209 211037 039 042 003 00
033830 2100N 09134W 9250 00573 9875 +219 +210 210033 034 036 004 00
033900 2101N 09135W 9254 00564 9869 +217 +210 210029 030 033 002 00
033930 2102N 09136W 9250 00561 9863 +218 +211 209025 027 032 003 03
034000 2103N 09138W 9256 00552 9856 +228 +212 221022 024 029 004 00
034030 2103N 09139W 9245 00561 9854 +219 +214 227013 017 025 004 03
034100 2104N 09141W 9248 00557 9854 +221 +215 306002 004 023 003 00

034130 2105N 09142W 9247 00558 9856 +220 +217 038008 011 022 001 03
034200 2106N 09143W 9258 00550 9858 +222 +218 039013 013 022 002 00
034230 2108N 09144W 9252 00559 9859 +229 +218 035016 020 024 000 00
034300 2109N 09145W 9256 00557 9863 +221 +219 038024 026 028 001 00
034330 2110N 09147W 9246 00571 9868 +216 +216 044030 031 033 002 00
034400 2111N 09148W 9246 00576 9875 +216 +216 049034 034 037 003 00
034430 2112N 09149W 9247 00580 9880 +216 +216 054039 042 041 001 00
$$
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2715. LSU79
Quoting StormW:
00Z Steering Layers forecast maps from PSU e-WALL, Valid 12Z 29 JUN 2010,

Indicate landfall north of NHC forecast track...near Brownsville. I'll be looking at things closely in the a.m.

I think one problem is, the mid layer steering set is not taking into account, that Upper to Mid level low off the Bahamas...It's not showing up on mid layer, and weak on deep layer. It's the A/B high that is supposed to nose in, and help turn Alex more NW-WNW, aiding the other small ridge.


So in laymans terms what does that mean?
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New lowest minimum pressure is 985.4mb.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290344
AF304 0701A ALEX HDOB 43 20100629
033500 2051N 09125W 9250 00613 9922 +212 +202 202052 052 037 005 00
033530 2053N 09126W 9254 00604 9916 +210 +203 203053 053 040 003 00
033600 2054N 09128W 9249 00602 9909 +210 +205 206055 056 040 004 00
033630 2055N 09129W 9245 00601 9902 +210 +207 209053 054 041 007 00
033700 2056N 09130W 9245 00594 9895 +210 +208 212054 055 042 005 00
033730 2057N 09131W 9243 00588 9885 +215 +209 213049 053 043 003 00
033800 2059N 09133W 9250 00576 9879 +218 +209 211037 039 042 003 00
033830 2100N 09134W 9250 00573 9875 +219 +210 210033 034 036 004 00
033900 2101N 09135W 9254 00564 9869 +217 +210 210029 030 033 002 00
033930 2102N 09136W 9250 00561 9863 +218 +211 209025 027 032 003 03
034000 2103N 09138W 9256 00552 9856 +228 +212 221022 024 029 004 00
034030 2103N 09139W 9245 00561 9854 +219 +214 227013 017 025 004 03
034100 2104N 09141W 9248 00557 9854 +221 +215 306002 004 023 003 00

034130 2105N 09142W 9247 00558 9856 +220 +217 038008 011 022 001 03
034200 2106N 09143W 9258 00550 9858 +222 +218 039013 013 022 002 00
034230 2108N 09144W 9252 00559 9859 +229 +218 035016 020 024 000 00
034300 2109N 09145W 9256 00557 9863 +221 +219 038024 026 028 001 00
034330 2110N 09147W 9246 00571 9868 +216 +216 044030 031 033 002 00
034400 2111N 09148W 9246 00576 9875 +216 +216 049034 034 037 003 00
034430 2112N 09149W 9247 00580 9880 +216 +216 054039 042 041 001 00
$$
;

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2713. WxLogic
00Z GFS... Still on track (backing NHC current forecast):

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2712. tkeith
good night bloggers...no more cowcasting
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2711. Drakoen
GFS 00z just south of the Texas/Mexico border
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From the NHC:

"IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS STILL DO NOT FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A HURRICANE...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS WE SPEAK."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/290248.shtml?

We so rely so heavily on these models and i guess we are always playing a guess game, I understand knowledge plays into this but mother nature is a power force that our minds cant even get around.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


love that everyone is starting to go to Flash player...So much faster and less resource intensive than Java loops.


Flash is usually less resource intensive but Flash crashes Firefox on Linux. The latest release notes on Firefox claim this has been fixed.

The other issue of this Flash switch-over is with www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes loops. Is it just me ... do the Java loops auto update and the Flash do not?

Overall I agree that Flash uses less resources than Java unless our friends at Adobe keep making it bigger and hungrier, and then worse than Oracle's Java monster.

Of course will Microsoft's Silverlight get into the game? Don't count out Apple and Google as far as active scripting goes. We shall all see.

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Quoting Drakoen:


They data will be in the 00z model runs.


thanks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.