Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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697. CaneHunter031472
6:58 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
When Alex finishes consolidating it will be a monster.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
696. DebunkerOfIdiots
4:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Jedkins01:



That might be one of the most intelligent statements Ive seen, I'm so dang sick of the school system and its worship of education.

There is so much unnecessary crap needed for a lot of degrees, and meteorology seems like it has one of the biggest unnecessary loads I've ever seen.

Man I love weather, but the schooling I'm having to go through to have it as my profession is down right absurd!


You're definitely from south of The Mason-Dixon line. All Hail The Ignorant and Uninformed and Unschooled !!! Let Mediocrity Reign Supreme !!! Geeeeeez.
Member Since: January 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
695. MrNatural
3:53 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Good morning all. Alex is not having a good morning. Seems that its' collective efforts to reorganize is being undone for the time being. I see two problems for Alex at the current time. Most of the convection is still over the Yucatan. Alex is still drawing energy from the land based convection. Until it can find a away to develop that convection over the balance of the storm, it will continue to dawdle and befuddle everyone. The reason I see for the lack of convection over the water seems to be the strength of the upper ridge between the trough and Alex. Not only is this ridge controlling direction, but it also seems to be capping the convection over water. NWS discussion out of Austin/San Antonio is also reporting that the upper ridge is not moving much at this time. This raises an important question, will the trough wash out before it can impact Alex. At this time, I do not see any significant reason to track Alex beyond the BOC for the next 6 - 12 hours.
Member Since: July 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
694. Jedkins01
2:47 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Well, kinda...but a hurricane doesn't care if ya know Calculus, differential equations, E=Mc2 or what.

While a lot of folks are busy figuring out the equations...I'm busy forecasting.



That might be one of the most intelligent statements Ive seen, I'm so dang sick of the school system and its worship of education.

There is so much unnecessary crap needed for a lot of degrees, and meteorology seems like it has one of the biggest unnecessary loads I've ever seen.

Man I love weather, but the schooling I'm having to go through to have it as my profession is down right absurd!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7955
693. TarheelNMiami
2:47 PM GMT on June 28, 2010

Not pleasant weather for the cleanup folks. At least we're getting some rain here in SoFla and a break from the heat.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
692. cg2916
2:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
691. bassis
2:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

ummm kid what kid im 20 u _____ and im not evacuating and i wasnt freakin wanting the storm so u better keep ur mouth shut


I don't think he meant you. It was one of the wishcaster from a few weeks ago. Be Nice, Play Kind
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
690. jpsb
2:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Well, kinda...but a hurricane doesn't care if ya know Calculus, differential equations, E=Mc2 or what.

While a lot of folks are busy figuring out the equations...I'm busy forecasting.
I am having a hard time figuring out where one would use the Calculus in making a forecast. No doubt Calculus is used in met theories and proofs since both would be based on fluid dynamics. But I'd think forecasts would be more numerical analisses and getting an accurate mental picture of just what the atmosphere is doing.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1250
689. jpsb
2:25 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting SeALWx:

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
Back in my day a Bachelor of Science degree require math thru DQ, plus some linear algebra. Linear Algebra is another fun math subject (once you write a little program to reduce the matrixes).
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1250
688. 7544
2:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
thanks jeff yeap that ull looks strong just east of fla looks like its trying to work its way down to the surface as it moves west so could it transition in time thats the way / sometimes they do .
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
687. cg2916
2:21 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
686. hurricanejunky
2:20 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


starts around 2 and is done around 3 pm


Isn't it the 18z that comes out at 2pm? I thought the 12z was at 8am?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
685. smmcdavid
2:19 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
666... That about sums it up! And I gotta say, not real shocked about any of it.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
683. pipelines
2:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
The remnants of ex94l that combined with that ULL has moved much further west than it was forecasted. That high was supposed to recurve this system and push Alex west, neither of which is happening.

Anyone else notice the modest amount of convection the ULL at 70 degrees is generating? A bit more than a usual ULL, they don't usually ever work themselves down to the surface but it has combined with a tropical wave and it is not unheard of.
Member Since: July 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 227
682. Squid28
2:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Sorry for asking this if it has already been answered, but I was disconnected from the world for several days while in Matagorda. All I could watch for updates was TWC, and gave up doing so in frustration after just a couple of tropical update segments.

Do the current model runs include the most recent G IV data, or is it incorporated in an upcoming set of model runs and if so what time will those runs be out?

Thanks....
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
681. smmcdavid
2:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Thanks StormW... :)
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
680. WatchingThisOne
2:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting RCThunder:
How much has Alex moved in in the past 6 hours?


Since last night's (23:45Z 27th) HH fix just off the coast until the HH fix at 13:15Z today (28th, one hour ago), Alex moved 79 miles on a heading of 331. That works out to something like 5.4 mph.

It's now 70 miles from the nearest coastline, so it should be hitting much deeper 26 degree isotherms soon.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1270
679. TankHead93
2:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Wow the official forecast is at the very top of the intensity forecasts. The general consensus is for this thing to begin gradually weakening as soon as today? Expect the 11AM advisory to only show an 80mph system or so opposed to 110 mph.
HUH?
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
678. hurrkat05
2:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
alex is most certainly being influenced by the deep trough right now and still is moving due north about 8 mph..if this continues for the next 36 hours the track will be shifted north about 200 miles and it becomes a serious situation for the upper texas coast and a lesser threat for the lower texas coast..all interest along the upper texas coast should not let there guard down and be ready to take action if a hurricane watch is issued..the high is weakening now the trough seems to be winning out..
677. Jeff9641
2:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting 7544:
hey jeff got a ? for ya if you notice the out flow from alex to the west of fla is nudging ne will the trof push not alex but the convection from there more ne over fla or will that conv just fizzle out thanks


That convection will start moving on Tuesday especially wednesday. Wed thru Friday looks very rainy across C and N FL as Alex's moisture will combine with the trough moving in. Today just an increase in afternoon thunderstorms from past days. New Symrna Beach has not had rain for now 21 days straight. This is unheard of for June. East Coast of FL has been shafted in the rain department the last few weeks.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
676. nrtiwlnvragn
2:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11301
674. cg2916
2:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
673. muddertracker
2:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting SeALWx:

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
For sure. Math is the reason I double majored in Brit Lit and Com...lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
672. Snowlover123
2:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Tracks trend eastward, intensity trends downward.


You got that right.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
671. Bordonaro
2:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
IKE--

ya I agree it does look ragged...

Between the land and the trof... it pretty messed up...

May be forming a tighter inner core tho

About 2/3 rds of Alex is over land, or being affected by land at the moment. As soon as Alex moves further into the GOM it should intensify and re-organize gradually over the next 4 days.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
670. HurricaneSwirl
2:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ah, models continue to trek to the East. I think everyone can agree that we can discard the model on the bottom of the forecast guidance for the dynamical models.


Tracks trend eastward, intensity trends downward.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
669. GBguy88
2:14 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
I bet that kid from Brownsville that's been dying for a hurricane is about to wet his pants. I wonder if his parents will make him evacuate. That'd be a cherry on one very bittersweet cake.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
668. HurricaneSwirl
2:14 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Wow the official forecast is at the very top of the intensity forecasts. The general consensus is for this thing to begin gradually weakening as soon as today? Expect the 11AM advisory to only show an 80mph system or so opposed to 110 mph.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
667. Snowlover123
2:14 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Ah, models continue to trek to the East. I think everyone can agree that we can discard the model on the bottom of the forecast guidance for the dynamical models.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
666. tkeith
2:14 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...
mornin :)

well let's see...Ike thinks it looks a little ragged, Storm thinks it's tracking as expected, Pat thinks he needs another cup of coffee and I think when Levi wakes up his eyes are gonna pretty red (he was up kinda late)...lol
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
665. guygee
2:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Thanks for the visuals Patrap. I just logged in and kept reading the word "North" a lot.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
664. RitaEvac
2:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...


Rough weather for TX?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9676
663. Patrap
2:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Dakster:


Funny Patrap... By definition that would be impossible...


Seems quotable to some though.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129408
662. JFLORIDA
2:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you can see how north it is moving in the latter part of the loop


yes you can, odd.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
661. SeALWx
2:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting muddertracker:
So they made you actually learn how to do all of the math on paper that the computers do for you once you become a met? Just curious.

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
Member Since: April 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
660. jpsb
2:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting FortBendTX:


Once I got past Calculus III and into Differential Equations, I could not handle anymore and changed majors, although my love for studying the weather never went away. :)
Yeah Diffy Q is not easy, only time I ever got a B in a math class, Diffy Q separates the men from the boys in math. I got thru it, did not really understand it but I could solve the equations most of the time. Diffy Q also ended my "carreer" in math. Now Calculus was easy and fun! I liked that.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1250
659. Dakster
2:12 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Patrap:


No guidance takes ALEX to the Right of the present guidance.


Funny Patrap... By definition that would be impossible...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10628
658. 7544
2:12 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
hey jeff got a ? for ya if you notice the out flow from alex to the west of fla is nudging ne will the trof push not alex but the convection from there more ne over fla or will that conv just fizzle out thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
657. Hurricanes101
2:12 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Alex would like to apologize for not looking absolutely perfect like he has the last few days

*rolls eyes*
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
656. HurricaneSwirl
2:12 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
I dont think the ragged appearance was land, I think it's the near 20 knots of NW-NNWerly shear, and the ULL is getting closer.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
654. Patrap
2:11 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129408
653. fsumet
2:11 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Don't be surprised to see a watch go up for Brownsville next advisory.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
652. SomeRandomTexan
2:10 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
IKE--

ya I agree it does look ragged...

Between the land and the trof... it pretty messed up...

May be forming a tighter inner core tho
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
651. Grothar
2:09 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac:
The storm is also forecast to expand in size over the western Gulf with tropical storm force winds extending outward upwards of 200 miles from the center so Alex will become an above average size hurricane. As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.


Those storms had much more water to work with and came from different directions. But I have not doubt it has the potential to be very large and powerful system, hight Cat 2 or even low Cat 3. Because of its proximity to land, this sometimes inhibits the expansion. If will be interesting to see how big it gets. Wind field is quite small now.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
650. guygee
2:09 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting Patrap:


No guidance takes ALEX to the Right of the present guidance.
Hallelujah and good day, kind sir!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
649. muddertracker
2:09 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting NewYork4Life:


That sounds exactly like how my meteorology aspirations went. However, I didn't get past Calc. III. Also, falling asleep in Physics while pledging didn't help either. :)
So they made you actually learn how to do all of the math on paper that the computers do for you once you become a met? Just curious.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
648. smmcdavid
2:09 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
647. Snowlover123
2:08 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting IKE:
Looking a little ragged...sorry it's off-centered....




It is still interacting with land, keep that in mind.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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