Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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Quoting DestinJeff:
This one graphic alone will do more to bring out the Oil doomcasters than anything else ... notice the ne curve in the dashed arrow



I don't see a graphic.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting southtxweather:
I live very close to Brownsville and the local news has not pushed for people to get ready for the possibility of a near-by Alex hit. All they keep saying is "get your tracking chart at What-a-burger" :/
One would think after the IKE experience that most residents would not be waiting for the news to tell them when to start preparations,even for a close pass threat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning kman, IKE, Storm!

I'm lurking (like I did most of last year).. but always appreciate your input!!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
336. kmanislander 8:33 AM EDT on June 28, 2010;
This storm will have a very hard time pushing much further West any time soon IMO. How this plays out in the long term remains to be seen.


It will do a loop-de-loop and make landfall at Guantanamo Bay Cuba.....Just Kidding...Good Morning....... ;)


Careful, it may hear you LOL. Good morning
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
Quoting Jeff9641:


Morning Storm and Ike! StormW what is causing Alex to basically stall this morning? Does it have to do with the trough coming in and providing weak stearing currents?

Read his new blog. He talks about this very question you ask.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


Aside from the fact that most of the facts you state are wrong, by stone age you mean 1855 when the first plastics were invented (wikipedia).

Bicycles don't need oil: natural rubber and synthetic vegetable oil work just fine. I've never used anything other than olive oil on my bikes and it works just fine.


Olive oil....great, when we have no groceries being delivered you can always eat your bike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
336. kmanislander 8:33 AM EDT on June 28, 2010;
This storm will have a very hard time pushing much further West any time soon IMO. How this plays out in the long term remains to be seen.


It will do a loop-de-loop and make landfall at Guantanamo Bay Cuba.....Just Kidding...Good Morning....... ;)
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Jonandrew: good morning; where in Corpus do you live?
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Quoting txag91met:


USA is glued to oil...we use 20 million barrells a day. Face it, accidents are going to happen...but they are rare. Doesn't mean we should stop drilling.


It's not rare and a major oil gusher kills now the ocean. Fossil combustion is toxic and cancerous, the cause for climate change. Oil = Stone age and dangerous.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Good morning,

Alex is doing what it appeared it would do from late yesterday afternoon and that is head off in a generally NW direction at a crawl. The very slow motion has been evident from before it left the Yucatan and this signals a system that perhaps wanted to go further West but is struggling to do so.

I posted

the WV loop of the GOM around 6 yesterday afternoon showing a ULL over the coast near the border of TX and LA and stated that the flow to the S of it and the weakness it was creating would set up a more Northerly steering regime if Alex responded to it.

Well, it seems Alex has and the ULL is still there eating away at the Western flank of the ridge.

This storm will have a very hard time pushing much further West any time soon IMO. How this plays out in the long term remains to be seen.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
Quoting StormW:
Ok..now don't get scared, as this will most likely change a gazillion times until the G4 flight...but based on what I have been looking at, this may be a good "short term" guidance solution, save the northward turn near the end:

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


Okay I live in Corpus, that does not look good at all !
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
Quoting greentortuloni:


Aside from the fact that most of the facts you state are wrong, by stone age you mean 1855 when the first plastics were invented (wikipedia).

Bicycles don't need oil: natural rubber and synthetic vegetable oil work just fine. I've never used anything other than olive oil on my bikes and it works just fine.


The machinery that makes the components of your bike used oil/petroleum in them. Chances are the energy that ran those machines used petroleum products, that bike got to the store via some form transportation that was fueled by petroleum products. The machines that were used to grow/harvest/press/transport/bottle the olive oil used petroleum products.
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Quoting StormW:
Oh...thought I'd mention...Barometer Bob is going to do a special show tonight...he's asked me to call in.

Love that show! Thanks Storm!
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
How bad is the Canadian...yesterday's 00z run had Alex 100-150 miles north of where it is now.
The GFS was off by about 100 miles NW. And the ECMWF was off by about 100 miles NW.

Which means the models are way too fast with the forwards speed from yesterday's runs.


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Quoting RecordSeason:
Anti-oil crowd.

If we immediately had a magic wand that gave us cars.....Cut oil drilling and it's back to the stone age with 30 to 40 year average life expectancies.

Cheers.


Aside from the fact that most of the facts you state are wrong, by stone age you mean 1855 when the first plastics were invented (wikipedia).

Bicycles don't need oil: natural rubber and synthetic vegetable oil work just fine. I've never used anything other than olive oil on my bikes and it works just fine.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting RecordSeason:
Anti-oil crowd.

If we immediately had a magic wand that gave us cars and industrial machines that ran on zero point energy and needed no lubricant, such that all fuel and lubricant uses for oil were eliminated, we would still use close to 75% as much oil as we currently use...

That's right...we are not actually addicted to oil for "energy" at all. We are addicted to the plastics made from oil, which makes modern civilization, especially medicine, possible.

Cut oil drilling and it's back to the stone age with 30 to 40 year average life expectancies.

Cheers.


Until the human race as a collective drastically changes their lifestyle the need for petroleum products will continue. It's easy to sit back and say, "stop all drilling," but how many are actually willing to do what it takes to go green? There is not a single aspect of our lives that isn't impacted by oil, and that won't change anytime soon. Everything in our lives either has, petroleum in it, used to make it, or transport it.
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL STORM ALEX SYNOPSIS JUNE 28, 2010 ISSUED 8:05 A.M.


Nice and informed synopsis Storm and love your disclaimer (PLEASE NOTE, The forecast track for this synopsis is subject to change, until such a time ALEX begins a definitive forward motion, and until further 6 hourly upper air soundings, and scheduled NOAA G4 flight information comes in.)....... You are right on the money and I'll stick with You for the time being; it's a watch and wait....BBL
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Anti-oil crowd.

If we immediately had a magic wand that gave us cars and industrial machines that ran on zero point energy and needed no lubricant, such that all fuel and lubricant uses for oil were eliminated, we would still use close to 75% as much oil as we currently use...

That's right...we are not actually addicted to oil for "energy" at all. We are addicted to the plastics made from oil, which makes modern civilization, especially medicine, possible.

Cut oil drilling and it's back to the stone age with 30 to 40 year average life expectancies.

Cheers.


You continue to post that lie, plastic is ~5% of oil use. Link

"In 2006,1 about 331 million barrels of liquid petroleum gases (LPG) and natural gas liquids (NGL) were used to make plastic products in the plastic materials and resins industry in the United States, equal to about 4.6% of total U.S. petroleum consumption."

The vast majority of consumption is for transportation.

Petroleum products include transportation fuels, fuel oils for heating and electricity generation, asphalt and road oil, and the feedstocks used to make chemicals, plastics, and synthetic materials found in nearly everything we use today. About 72% of the 7.14 billion barrels of petroleum that we used in 2008 were gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel.

Petroleum products and their relative share of total U.S. petroleum consumption in 2008:

Gasoline 46%
Diesel Fuel1 18%
Jet Fuel (Kerosene) 8%
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11157
Re Post 301: Yeah, pretty serious when the NHC announces a wave before it exits the African coast.
L8R
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321. 900MB
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL STORM ALEX SYNOPSIS JUNE 28, 2010 ISSUED 8:05 A.M.


Thanks Storm! I'm with you, a bit further North. Just wondering is we are at Cat 2 in 3 days if the tendency to shift East based on intensity is in play here?
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320. IKE
Accuweather take on Alex
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Morning all.

I see good ol Alex is still busy sunbathing.
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Dr. Masters said the GFDL track is the outlier.
Also Dr. Ron Carver says,

The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Impressive Weather Blog Relay going on between Dr. Masters and Dr. Carver!
Have a great day everyone.
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Link


Blog Theme song...Or ought to be?
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I've got to go, be back later...
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL STORM ALEX SYNOPSIS JUNE 28, 2010 ISSUED 8:05 A.M.
Thanks Storm for update
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Quoting germemiguel:
KABOUMMMMM ! The African gun is working....

Yup and that one is actually an AEW. This little guy needs to be watched, it will probably be shaded soon by the NHC.
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Quoting 900MB:
A stronger Cane is more likely to go right then left.

Edit-


All its outflow is headed north and east. I guess different rules apply for Alex.


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Quoting Chicklit:

That's the Navy and you're Jeff...um, I'm sticking with the Navy for now LOL.


Hehe, awesome comment! I respect Jeff's opinion and share his concern with a stalled storm, but side with you as well, Chicklit. :-P
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307. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Re post 279: Ike, that is really good news.

It's still interacting with land and has been over water for a little over 12 hours.



Yeah, but in 48-72 hours, it's forecast to turn back toward the west more and strengthen.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I am Aqua and I approve this message.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25923
The Navy track graphic uses the NHC forecast, its just in the Navy format.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11157
Quoting txag91met:


USA is glued to oil...we use 20 million barrells a day. Face it, accidents are going to happen...but they are rare. Doesn't mean we should stop drilling.


Doesn't mean we don't need a new Energy Policy and it has to begin sometime. And all it takes as we have found out is one accident.....
But lets get back to weather!
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
KABOUMMMMM ! The African gun is working....

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Re post 279: Ike, that is really good news.

It's still interacting with land and has been over water for a little over 12 hours.

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Alex has been moving basically NNW since the last vortex message from last night.

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298. IKE
*adds microwave popcorn to grocery list*

HWRF 6Z


GFDL 6Z
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.