Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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Any possibility of Alex performing an Opal?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Do you think Tampa is safe from this one?


Yes, without question. I just don't but the MX solution at all.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting RitaEvac:
All I can say is that TX is laid back calm right now just from watching media. I don't think anybody has a clue, If this thing goes to Brownsville the whole coast of TX is going to get squally weather


LOL!! Exactly! Media hasn't said much.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
All I can say is that TX is laid back calm right now just from watching media. I don't think anybody has a clue, If this thing goes to Brownsville the whole coast of TX is going to get squally weather
That is 100% so True....
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
AL 01 2010062812 BEST 0 201N 916W 50 989 TS


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 91.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 91.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11298
Quoting RecordSeason:
355:

Do you have any clue how much it would cost to implement wind and solar power, along with the battery, fuel cell, or compressed air technology sufficient to store energy for night time usage and automobile usage?

I bet you don't, but I do, because I've done the math using the most cost effective commercially available panel I could find.

It would cost $55 TRILLION dollars to build enough solar panels to supply the U.S. energy needs.

This does not count the cost of batteries, fuel cells, or other storage mechanisms. This does not count installation or maintenance. This does not count computerized "smart grid" technology or robotic orientation mechanisms to optimize cell alignment to the normal of the sun's rays, and etc. This does not count the cost of all the new power lines and other transformer and switching systems that would need to be laid. Even worse, the cells are warranted for only 25 years with about a 5% efficiency degradation per year.

They do pay for them selves vs the current cost of electricity under ideal circumstances (insert laboratory conditions,) after close to 7 years, but by then, they are already degraded by 35%.

The Cost Of A 95% Renewable-Powered World By 2050?

18 trillion dollars, with the U.S. sporting a third of the bill, according to a report by Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC). The groups assert that a drastic shift to renewable energy within the next 40 years is possible with a no-holds-barred approach and some serious owning up by the world’s biggest polluters, i.e. who has two thumbs and loves to waste!? This Guy…the U.S. of A.

Yes, because “We the People” have one of the longest and by far most intensive history of pollution and greenhouse gas emission, we’ll have to pay for a good third of the most important bar tab the world has ever seen, according to Greenpeace. Of the $18 trillion needed to pull it off, the U.S. would be responsible for 36.3 percent of the bill in 2010. That would decrease to 28.9 percent by 2030.

China, which recently surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, would pay only 4.3 percent in 2010, increasing to 14.3 percent in 2030. China pays less because it has a shorter history of industrial development and GHG emission, and is poorer than the United States and Europe.

The nigh unfathomable price tag of $18 trillion is perhaps the biggest issue. It is, according to Reuters, five times the entire U.S. budget for 2011. Yet Greenpeace and EREC have reportedly worked out the details, outlining a direct path to a globe almost entirely powered by renewable resources like wind, geothermal and solar power. They also point out that it would take a cumulative investment of more than $11 trillion just to stay on the path we’re on, in which oil and gas remain our dominant energy sources.

Solarfeed
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting cctexgal:
Jonandrew: good morning; where in Corpus do you live?


I live on the west side where Baldwin and Morgan intersect, on Osage, what about you ?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
Quoting nola70119:
I am no weather expert but it looks like the GFS was onto something.....historically storms have gone due North from this position.
I am wary of this storm.


Very interesting week ahead as it will be interesting to see what happens when the stronger trough moves in. First one basically stalled Alex the other one could provide a due N movement as you said or NNE can't be ruled out or if stays stationary for most of the week then the trough will pass and force Alex due west or wnw.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
All I can say is that TX is laid back calm right now just from watching media. I don't think anybody has a clue, If this thing goes to Brownsville the whole coast of TX is going to get squally weather
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Well, that's it for me for now. Time to get on with the day so have a great day all.

Alex will still be in the same general area for a while so don't hesitate to take a break :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
386. hercj
Quoting Kaydalenascar:


Totally agree!

I will third that. Go to the AlGore blog. You will be at home there. We FINALLY have a cyclone to track and argue about. We will argue about oil after landfall. LOL
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I've seen drastic track shift from stalled storms in the past and I wouldn't rule that out as well. Jeanne is one that comes to mind as it was projected to go out to sea but stalled for a couple of days and looped back to the W and hit FT Pierce. Jeanne was a shock as I went to bed seeing a track going out to sea and then woke up to find it coming right at us in FL. Never take your eye off these storms as they can be very unpredictable. The key is the trough to the north and a second stronger trough moving in from out west this could provide a interesting week for sure.


Do you think Tampa is safe from this one?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting aquak9:
kman- I agree w/jeff

I often look at the avatars of newbies- your definitely looks calm. Hard to take some folks seriously by their avatar.

and of course Keeper's just scares me half to death.


Some avatars obviously reflect the personality behind it. The blanks leave you to wonder though LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
kman- I agree w/jeff

I often look at the avatars of newbies- your definitely looks calm. Hard to take some folks seriously by their avatar.

and of course Keeper's just scares me half to death.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26472
The longer that Alex stays over water, the better chances of it becoming a major hurricane, the better the chances it will shift to a more northerly track, the better the chances it will encounter very warm SSTs, and the better the chance it will undergo rapid intensification.
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I am no weather expert but it looks like the GFS was onto something.....historically storms have gone due North from this position.
I am wary of this storm.
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378. jpsb
Quoting sentinel77:


Olive oil....great, when we have no groceries being delivered you can always eat your bike
The same people that told us we could not use nuclear in the 70's are now telling us we can't use fossil fuels now. I am not at all happy with the oil spill, very upset with BP for sloopy anything to save a buck drilling practices. Shame on them, but the idea of modern civ without nuclear and without fossil fuels is for the foreseeable future idiotic.

Perhaps the lesson from the BP (spit) spill is to drill places where mistakes can be correctly quickly without endangering the environment and the ability of tens of thousands of Americans to earn a living. Just saying.
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Quoting IKE:


System looks stretched out this morning. I'm not saying the inner core of it is getting sheared badly, but it doesn't have that awesome look like it previously did.


Probably a combination of proximity to land over a prolonged period of time coupled with low TCHP values.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
The outflow in Alexs northwest quadrant has greatly improved over the last few hours.
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Quoting marknmelb:
If you want to discuss oil issues start your own blog. It will probably start to get hectic weather wise soon and we don't need any static to distract from the storms. I'm not at all insenstive to the disaster in the Gulf. I live in Florida. I just don't need to filter through other topics to get data on any current or potential storms.


The oil is part of the storm and climate is part of this blog.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
IDK about an eye but definitely something over the center???
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Thanks KMan. As always, very straight forward and reasonable analysis.

I do theorize, however, that your avatar is partially responsible for how the blog views your input. I think you should run a controlled experiment by changing your avatar to see if we all accept your analysis the same way we do now. Laid back. :)

Thanks again.


Perhaps an image of a Cat 5 then ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting CaneWarning:
I wish Florida would do what other places have done and ban the use of plastic bags in stores. Plastic bags are a huge waste of oil, and most people don't recycle them or re-use them. Maybe it needs to be a national ban.
At the supermarkets in the Cayman Islands they charge .05 for each plastic bag you use. Most people use the cloth bags now.
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Quoting IKE:


I was looking for that! thanks for posting.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning, I see Alex is organizing fast , but moving very slowly with a NW/NNW drift, I said from yesterday from La to the big bend in Fl. is where i think Alex will make land fall probably as a cat 2-3 hurricane, just my opinion of course.


I've seen drastic track shift from stalled storms in the past and I wouldn't rule that out as well. Jeanne is one that comes to mind as it was projected to go out to sea but stalled for a couple of days and looped back to the W and hit FT Pierce. Jeanne was a shock as I went to bed seeing a track going out to sea and then woke up to find it coming right at us in FL. Never take your eye off these storms as they can be very unpredictable. The key is the trough to the north and a second stronger trough moving in from out west this could provide a interesting week for sure.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
When toxic soup lands in peoples back yards we will sing a different tune; and this is relevant because we have not experienced this whole scenario and have no way to defend ourselves from our messes. Just one of those hindsight thiings.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Quoting marknmelb:
Can we stick to WEATHER discussions please?? If you want to discuss oil issues start your own blog. It will probably... or potential storms.


Yup. Sorry.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
366. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I live in the Port Arthur Area and when IKE was closing in on us, I remember that local officials were dragging their feet in making decisions. Just like this storm and every storm we all have our predictions. I'm just not convinced as of yet that TX/LA border is out of the woods yet. Didn't IKE have similar models as we are seeing now? he ended up making a visit in the Galveston Area.

As stated my another individual on the blog today, I think all residents on the TX coast should prepare for anything. If Mr. Alex makes makes landfall in TX we are all going to get wet :) Enjoy your Monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting marknmelb:
Can we stick to WEATHER discussions please?? If you want to discuss oil issues start your own blog. It will probably start to get hectic weather wise soon and we don't need any static to distract from the storms. I'm not at all insenstive to the disaster in the Gulf. I live in Florida. I just don't need to filter through other topics to get data on any current or potential storms.


Totally agree!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wish Florida would do what other places have done and ban the use of plastic bags in stores. Plastic bags are a huge waste of oil, and most people don't recycle them or re-use them. Maybe it needs to be a national ban.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
359. MahFL
I see an eye trying to form.
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Looks like Alex is starting to tighten up.
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357. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
Here is the mid level steering map showing the path of least resistance being off to the NW.



System looks stretched out this morning. I'm not saying the inner core of it is getting sheared badly, but it doesn't have that awesome look like it previously did.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good Morning, I see Alex is organizing fast , but moving very slowly with a NW/NNW drift, I said from yesterday from La to the big bend in Fl. is where i think Alex will make land fall probably as a cat 2-3 hurricane, just my opinion of course.
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Quoting alaina1085:

Read his new blog. He talks about this very question you ask.


Got it thanks! I just don't buy the NHC track based on what I am seeing this morning as well.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You continue to post that lie, plastic is ~5% of oil use. Link

"In 2006,1 about 331 million barrels of liquid petroleum gases (LPG) and natural gas liquids (NGL) were used to make plastic products in the plastic materials and resins industry in the United States, equal to about 4.6% of total U.S. petroleum consumption."

The vast majority of consumption is for transportation.

Petroleum products include transportation fuels, fuel oils for heating and electricity generation, asphalt and road oil, and the feedstocks used to make chemicals, plastics, and synthetic materials found in nearly everything we use today. About 72% of the 7.14 billion barrels of petroleum that we used in 2008 were gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel.

Petroleum products and their relative share of total U.S. petroleum consumption in 2008:

Gasoline 46%
Diesel Fuel1 18%
Jet Fuel (Kerosene) 8%


As an engineer working at an oil refinery I can tell you this is the truth. However...it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to drill for oil for ethylene, just to make plastics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can we stick to WEATHER discussions please?? If you want to discuss oil issues start your own blog. It will probably start to get hectic weather wise soon and we don't need any static to distract from the storms. I'm not at all insenstive to the disaster in the Gulf. I live in Florida. I just don't need to filter through other topics to get data on any current or potential storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
351. kmanislander
12:42 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Here is the mid level steering map showing the path of least resistance being off to the NW.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
350. polarcane
12:42 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Wow we have a storm in our back yard and you guys are taking pros and cons of oil. This is a weather blog not a bash/praise big oil blog. Let talk weather people!
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
349. taco2me61
12:41 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Link


Blog Theme song...Or ought to be?
Now thats funny Doug and yes you are right 100%...


Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
348. txalwaysprepared
12:41 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting superpete:
One would think after the IKE experience that most residents would not be waiting for the news to tell them when to start preparations,even for a close pass threat?


Brownsville did not experience Ike
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
347. CaneWarning
12:41 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:
This one graphic alone will do more to bring out the Oil doomcasters than anything else ... notice the ne curve in the dashed arrow



I don't see a graphic.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.