Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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As someone in the Houston-Galveston area.. Nothing has been mentioned. Not a word from local mets this morning. My neighbors have no idea.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
If I'm not mistaken, Dr. Masters has discussed the oil disater in his own blog. This is the first time in human history that a man made disaster and severe weather have been intertwined this way and it's perfectly appropriate to discuss them and their potentially disastrous relationship with each other on this blog. If you have a personal gripe with BP or the oil industry in general take it somwhere else. Otherwise the discussion is fine, and if you don't like it, maybe you should consider another blog. I'm on the Alabama coast and I welcome the oil topic being tossed around in the discussion because of the poisonous disaster that would result if a tropical system came this way.


Spot on.
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Quoting aquak9:
kman- I agree w/jeff

I often look at the avatars of newbies- your definitely looks calm. Hard to take some folks seriously by their avatar.

and of course Keeper's just scares me half to death.



Oh yes I don't like keepers either. Especially late at night!
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speaking of AVATARS, msgambler...cough cough...
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Quoting msgambler:
Good morning AquaK9, KOTG. And Aqua, it isn't just the avitar, I hear rumor KOTG scares alot of folks....LOL
nothing to fear but fear its self
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting MahFL:
Is Alex moving NNE ?
I think thats a "wobble" but the general direction is NNW very slowly... And I mean "Slowly"

Taco :o)
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Quoting cctexgal:
All I can say is that TX is laid back calm right now just from watching media. I don't think anybody has a clue, If this thing goes to Brownsville the whole coast of TX is going to get squally weather
Last time a storm went into Brownsville we did'nt get any weather here in CC


that was a small storm, this one is far reaching
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Quoting KRL:
If anyone thinks we're going to stop the oil companies from being the primary producers of our energy products and needs anytime soon they're in la la land. You're talking about THE most powerful and richest industry on the planet and they aren't going anywhere in our lifetime.

Read post -401- lol
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Quoting RCThunder:
How much has Alex moved in in the past 6 hours?


.3deg North
.3deg West
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There are two things that stand out to me here. One is that the vast majority of the last model runs are north of the official NHC track. The other is that Alex has been crawling NNW, and is also north of the official forecast point.

Does this mean anything? Only that the cone of death will be adjust again, slowly north, for continuity.
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Thanks for the update Storm!
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What is a little concerning to me is, if it goes north and throws a rain shield/squalls well out ahead of it, going to be hard to board up get everything gathered up, and to think if evacuations in rain and bad weather before the storm is a total nightmare
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How much has Alex moved in in the past 6 hours?
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yes hurricane 23 it seems this cape verde stom forecasted by the GFS is the large tropical wave over central Africa. also noticed that the wave is mentioned in the TWD.
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And so it begins. Happens every year, every storm...

Throngs bemoan that the NHC doesn't have a clue, but weather bloggers do:-)

Just makes me laugh! And TX DOES know what is going on. Did you see the cone? It's not just the center. It's a very LARGE swath that could be affected.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


A reporter from the NHC over the weekend told CNN that he thought this was a MX threat and the US should be fine. He even mentioned the Euro showing it going into MX. Boneheads!
at the moment its almost due north looks like a heading of 355 degrees or will be soon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
All I can say is that TX is laid back calm right now just from watching media. I don't think anybody has a clue, If this thing goes to Brownsville the whole coast of TX is going to get squally weather
Last time a storm went into Brownsville we did'nt get any weather here in CC
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
So...is NOLA/South MS in the clear from Alex ya think??
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423. jpsb
Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree, too many people are relying on the NHC track and news stations aren't taking into affect the NHC track may again be wrong. Common trend with them the last several years. People get caught off guard because of this.
I'm on the Texas coast, people are paying attention to Alex. Texans do get all worked up over a TS or weak hurricane. We see those all the time here. Now if Alex becomes a strong hurricane and still headed our way, we will get in gear real quick.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
421. MahFL
Is Alex moving NNE ?
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Good morning AquaK9, KOTG. And Aqua, it isn't just the avitar, I hear rumor KOTG scares alot of folks....LOL
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419. KRL
If anyone thinks we're going to stop the oil companies from being the primary producers of our energy products and needs anytime soon they're in la la land. You're talking about THE most powerful and richest industry on the planet and they aren't going anywhere in our lifetime.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 01 2010062812 BEST 0 201N 916W 50 989 TS


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 91.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 91.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM


Very interesting. 50 kts = 57.5 mph which barely rounds up to 60 mph. NHC being fairly generous on this one.

The 330 degrees is also interesting. 270 is west. 315 is NW, and 360, or 0, is due N, so it's officially going 15 degrees over NW right now. If you take half of 90 and add it to W you should get NW, and if you take half of that and add it to NW, you should get NNW right? (That would be 337.5 degrees?) So it's moving just under NNW officially. I'm just a HS freshmen so I've never taken any geometry classes, so I'm just trying to make a somewhat educated guess lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
If the media says it isnt a threat, it is a threat and if they say it is a threat it's not.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Got it thanks! I just don't buy the NHC track based on what I am seeing this morning as well.
Quoting aspectre:
352 marknmelb "Can we stick to WEATHER discussions please?? If you want to discuss oil issues, start your own blog."

The DeepwaterHorizon blowout made oil into a weather topic. Hurricanes plus crude equals fouled beaches, contaminated seafood, unemployment, fumes injuring peoples health, recondensed vapors falling in rain to shut down potable water supplies, closing power plants which rely on water to produce steam as well as cooling, etc ad nauseum.

And you're worried about a few shingles being blown off your home.
The interaction of oil with hurricanes is a meteorological issue, but not the cause of deepwater drilling and Americans consumption of oil. In any case, this is Dr. Masters blog and let him answer it himself.
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Thanks Jeff9641 for the advice, truly appreciate it.
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GFS appears to be developing another cape-verde cyclone in the coming days approaching the northern islands on its 06z run.

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If I'm not mistaken, Dr. Masters has discussed the oil disater in his own blog. This is the first time in human history that a man made disaster and severe weather have been intertwined this way and it's perfectly appropriate to discuss them and their potentially disastrous relationship with each other on this blog. If you have a personal gripe with BP or the oil industry in general take it somwhere else. Otherwise the discussion is fine, and if you don't like it, maybe you should consider another blog. I'm on the Alabama coast and I welcome the oil topic being tossed around in the discussion because of the poisonous disaster that would result if a tropical system came this way.
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Jonandrew;
we live out in the Bluff: off Yorktown near Flour Bluff drive. I use the Navy planes to judge the weather: when they go in I know somethings coming
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Inbound again



AOI
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Quoting aspectre:
352 marknmelb "Can we stick to WEATHER discussions please?? If you want to discuss oil issues, start your own blog."

The DeepwaterHorizon blowout made oil into a weather topic. Hurricanes plus crude equals fouled beaches, contaminated seafood, unemployment, fumes injuring peoples health, recondensed vapors falling in rain to shut down potable water supplies, closing power plants which rely on water to produce steam as well as cooling, etc ad nauseum.

And you're worried about a few shingles being blown off your home.
During Katrina Murphy Oil had a spill of 750,000 gallonsit affected over 2,000 homes. 80% of those dont have people living in them today, even after remediation.
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Quoting FortBendTX:
Good morning all. Yesterday Dr. masters mentioned an experimental model run that showed Alex hitting somewhere between Corpus and Galveston.

Does anyone remember what that model was, how to access it, and does anybody know if it has run again since Dr. Masters mentioned it and what the results were?

I only ask because it surprised me to see him come onto the blog and mention it...Thanks to anyone who has any information!


It was a "new and improved" experimental GFDL
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The only thing right now Texas knows is that it's going to Northern Mexico and hardly any impacts to TX is in the future when that is totaly wrong.
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Quoting aquak9:
kman- I agree w/jeff

I often look at the avatars of newbies- your definitely looks calm. Hard to take some folks seriously by their avatar.

and of course Keeper's just scares me half to death.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting LADobeLady:


The machinery that makes the components of your bike used oil/petroleum in them. Chances are the energy that ran those machines used petroleum products, that bike got to the store via some form transportation that was fueled by petroleum products. The machines that were used to grow/harvest/press/transport/bottle the olive oil used petroleum products.


So what? You're stating the obvious. The fact of the matter is we can stick our heads in the sand and do nothing about the overdependence on petroleum or we can try and do something - ANYTHING - to slowly wean ourselves at least in part off petroleum. Even if we could just wean ourselves off enough to eliminate the dependence on foreign oil that would be a GREAT first step. There is nothing wrong with anyone who wants to do their part, no matter how big or small, to lessen our dependence on petroleum, especially since there are so many alternatives to petroleum for certain applications that are much cleaner and friendlier to the environment. Why does it have to be oil or no oil? Diversification is a good thing, especially when it comes to energy.
Just my .02, RANT OVER.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 01 2010062812 BEST 0 201N 916W 50 989 TS


For the people who can't read that: that's the best track for Alex, they've bumped the intensity up to 50kt.
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Good morning all. Yesterday Dr. masters mentioned an experimental model run that showed Alex hitting somewhere between Corpus and Galveston.

Does anyone remember what that model was, how to access it, and does anybody know if it has run again since Dr. Masters mentioned it and what the results were?

I only ask because it surprised me to see him come onto the blog and mention it...Thanks to anyone who has any information!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
352 marknmelb "Can we stick to WEATHER discussions please?? If you want to discuss oil issues, start your own blog."

The DeepwaterHorizon blowout made oil into a weather topic. Hurricanes plus crude equals fouled beaches, contaminated seafood, unemployment, fumes injuring peoples health, recondensed vapors falling in rain to shut down potable water supplies, contamination closing power plants which rely on water to produce steam as well as cooling, etc ad nauseum.

And you're worried about a few shingles being blown off your home.
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Any possibility of Alex performing an Opal?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.