Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 497 - 447

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Very hard to wait and prepare for storms on this part of the Coastal Bend of Texas since it doesn't take too long to turn and slam us if it jogs to the left. You have to just stay on WU and NHC and watch the sky!
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Easier to use the compass graphic. Close to Northwest by North.




Link
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Easier to use the compass graphic. Close to Northwest by North.




Link


Yeah, I just did a little bit of research and the wikipedia article "boxing the compass" really helped. It gave me a neat algorithm and a really great table

For anyone interested: Boxing the Compass

I checked out sites other than wikipedia as well and they back the info that wikipedia has, but they don't have all the info that I would like in one page/website that I would like.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Good morning everyone!! OK, what's the "spill" on Alex? I could BARELY sleep last night ..I had Alex in my dreams!!! LOLOL!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherCurious:
Wondering if those who are speaking of the oil/weather items could just put oil in bold before their statements that way those looking for for strictly weather info could know what to skip over and those looking for oil/weather items know exactly where to go as they read. Just a suggestion. Thanks


Or when you see them vote them down.


Also, Is it just me or did the storm center move a good bit in the last hour and forty or so?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SamTeam:


Channel 2 & Channel 11 are both giving pretty good detail in Houston; they are informative but cautious


I must have missed it all... haha... I never saw/heard anything :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


It gets worse by the hour. Notice how they all stand in front of the maps, so you can't see what is going on?


Just wait. "Revenge of the Nerds IV" is playing today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The NHC is really putting there head in the chopping block for having discounted the GFS models. It seems like Alex has taken the N/NW turn and hopefully it will follow the other models with a more Westerly course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


It gets worse by the hour. Notice how they all stand in front of the maps, so you can't see what is going on?
This one guy just talks and talks and talks and doesn't really say anything. I think he said "weather" and "storm" within 3 sentences. Everything else was non-weather related out of his mouth!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
486. IKE
Hasn't strengthened much....989.7.

Good news.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting angiest:


Are you watching Channel 11? They talk about it there.


Channel 2 & Channel 11 are both giving pretty good detail in Houston; they are informative but cautious
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 13:17:00Z
Coordinates: 20.1333N 91.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.5 mb (~ 27.30 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 598 meters (~ 1,962 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 989.7 mb (~ 29.23 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 150%uFFFD at 2 knots (From the SSE at ~ 2.3 mph)

This is probably the Vortex point

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wondering if those who are speaking of the oil/weather items could just put oil in bold before their statements that way those looking for for strictly weather info could know what to skip over and those looking for oil/weather items know exactly where to go as they read. Just a suggestion. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No I haven't yet Storm....but will do right now!!! Thanks!! :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
480. jpsb
Quoting hurrkat05:
i absolutely agree with you on this nash the NHC is doing a great job
years ago (many) I paid very little attention to the official forecast, but I have to admit these days NHC is remarkably good with it's forecast track. Do they hit the nail on the head? No but they are very close 2 days out most of the time. If you are the target 24 hours out beware!

Now the intensity forecast is not so good and usually errs on the high side by more then a little.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
427:

This isn't last time. If this continues developing into a hurricane and then a major, it will likely be one of the largest circulations since records began, if not THE largest.


I dont think so Coop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
I always like looking at these that have the XTRP to see where it falls in relation to the model consensus ...

In this case XTRP is right of model consensus. That, in my mind, is very telling.


What do you mean? How so?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
As someone in the Houston-Galveston area.. Nothing has been mentioned. Not a word from local mets this morning. My neighbors have no idea.


Are you watching Channel 11? They talk about it there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
TWC needs to be shutdown, and some other private company start a real weather channel


It gets worse by the hour. Notice how they all stand in front of the maps, so you can't see what is going on?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


??????
Its still there


No I mean the recon and google earth stuff. I had it saved on my desktop but it's gone from my desktop.

Are you tracking Alex and comparing it to the NHC track on a map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
pressure is steady at 989 right now waiting for peak wind report as winds are higher NE of the center right where recon is heading to
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting GetReal:



There are two things that stand out to me here. One is that the vast majority of the last model runs are north of the official NHC track. The other is that Alex has been crawling NNW, and is also north of the official forecast point.

Does this mean anything? Only that the cone of death will be adjust again, slowly north, for continuity.


Interestingly, TWC also has their cone north of the NHC's. Usually they stay in line. Developments abound!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Orca are you around? I love your maps!!! I used to have your stuff saved on my desktop, but it's gone :(


??????
Its still there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


It would have to go some to beat this one!

nice graphic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Alex gaining strength over Gulf

BELIZE CITY, Belize (AP) - Tropical Storm Alex was gaining strength Monday as it swirled across the Gulf of Mexico on a path toward Mexico's northeastern coast that threatened to push oil from the massive spill farther inland.

The tropical storm's center wasn't expected to approach the area of the oil spill off Louisiana's coast, said Stacy Stewart, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. But Alex's outer wind field could push oil from the spill farther inland and hinder operations in the area, Stewart said early Monday.

Forecasters also said Alex could become a hurricane later in the day or on Tuesday.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
TWC needs to be shutdown, and some other private company start a real weather channel


It was bad prior to the NBC takeover, now its pitiful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Easier to use the compass graphic. Close to Northwest by North.




Link

Good Morning! Superb graphic and thanks for that!
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Good morning Storm....have you had a chance this morning to look at what Alex has done over night, and forecast any changes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orca are you around? I love your maps!!! I used to have your stuff saved on my desktop, but it's gone :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
427:

This isn't last time. If this continues developing into a hurricane and then a major, it will likely be one of the largest circulations since records began, if not THE largest.


It would have to go some to beat this one!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfscout:


I heard it mentioned this morning on the radio to make landfall as far north as victoria-matagorda. Mostly rain, gusty winds and above normal tides though.


That's good. I'm glad someone somewhere on the coast is mentioning it!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Storm.... so will the next set of forcast tracks change much? or will they wait and let it get fully off shore and stronger first?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even though conditions appear favorable for development right now the outflow pattern with alex is currently being disrupted be the digging ull which you can see here this WV loop. which i think could be the reason the HWRF/GFDL models aren't showing explosive intensification. Eventually this ull should move out and allow for slow but steady intensification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
off to work i go do half a shift be back at luinch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
♥smiles♥
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWC needs to be shutdown, and some other private company start a real weather channel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
As someone in the Houston-Galveston area.. Nothing has been mentioned. Not a word from local mets this morning. My neighbors have no idea.


I heard it mentioned this morning on the radio to make landfall as far north as victoria-matagorda. Mostly rain, gusty winds and above normal tides though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Very interesting. 50 kts = 57.5 mph which barely rounds up to 60 mph. NHC being fairly generous on this one.

The 330 degrees is also interesting. 270 is west. 315 is NW, and 360, or 0, is due N, so it's officially going 15 degrees over NW right now. If you take half of 90 and add it to W you should get NW, and if you take half of that and add it to NW, you should get NNW right? (That would be 337.5 degrees?) So it's moving just under NNW officially. I'm just a HS freshmen so I've never taken any geometry classes, so I'm just trying to make a somewhat educated guess lol.


Easier to use the compass graphic. Close to Northwest by North.




Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10873
Quoting aquak9:
speaking of AVATARS, msgambler...cough cough...
That is my picture. What are you tryin' say there Aqua? Should I be offended? LOL
All kiddin' aside I do not know how to put one on here (lost my manual).
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Good morning everyone, I stopped in earlier this morning but did not leave a post.

I agree with Aqua, some of the avatars are scary..and some just don't make any sense to me...and some are really nice. I do like to see the faces of those I am talking to on here!


So going to be checking in and out today as I can..to see not IF but How MUCH strength Alex gains today and how far North it turns...
somthing to really watch.

and TWC is no longer the place to get valid weather inforation; has not been in years..
they show movies now and tell silly stories and have become a travel & entertainment show...not a valid source of good weather informatno.


Good morning and thanks for the great info everyone!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 497 - 447

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast