Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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147. MahFL
But does S TX have the Internet ? lol.
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looks like it may have nudged a bit east...should be an interesting dayLink
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144. MahFL
Quoting Berryfine1:

No, that is not correct. South Padre Island is a town of 2500, Port Isabel, just over the bridge is a lovely fishing village of 3,000, Laguna Vista, Brownsville etc.

Like I said MOSTLY ranches and oil. I heard that on the TV one time so it must be true......
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143. IKE
Quoting Claudette1234:


We dont know but somehow Corpus Christi will be affect.


Agree...there will at least be squally weather...TS conditions are forecast from the local NWS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Fl30258713:
...If not the ULL's, what would need to change that would weaken the HP?
The deep-layer trough coming in from the west is eroding the western edge of the subtropical high.
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LeeInNaplesFl,

Thanks
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140. IKE
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Nope, the John Wayne western days are over. There is much more to S Texas than cattle and oil wells! Folks, the State even has electricity and computers!


LOL!

Woohoo!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Then again, maybe Corpus Christi won't be okay based on the GFS 6Z at 90 hours...



We dont know but somehow Corpus Christi will be affect.
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138. IKE
Images of Dolly busting out, with Alex.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MahFL:
If I remember correctly though there is not much in S TX but cattle ranches and oil wells ?

No, that is not correct. South Padre Island is a town of 2500, Port Isabel, just over the bridge is a lovely fishing village of 3,000, Laguna Vista, Brownsville etc.
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Quoting MahFL:
If I remember correctly though there is not much in S TX but cattle ranches and oil wells ?

Nope, the John Wayne western days are over. There is much more to S Texas than cattle and oil wells! Folks, the State even has electricity and computers!
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Quoting MahFL:
If I remember correctly though there is not much in S TX but cattle ranches and oil wells ?


I'm in Corpus, home of some decent beaches and good fishing. Between here and Brownsville mostly large tracts of cattle ranches. So far zero mentions on local news of Corpus being in the cone.
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Quoting guygee:
Those are in the mid to upper atmosphere, in a position either to create shear or aid in outflow, but not to steer the system at the surface.

Note how the huge symmetric upper anticyclone that was over Alex yesterday has now been partially eroded towards the NE by the NW Gulf ULL, but I do not think the ULL had any effect on the steering the surface system, IMO.

That's why I was wondering if the ULL's had an effect on HP.
I know the HP ridge over the western GOM is what will drive Alex toward the TX/MX coast. I was just wondering if the ULL's would play a part in weakening the HP.

If not the ULL's, what would need to change that would weaken the HP?
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Quoting flibinite:
Sigh... I saw the radars for those I've mentioned, KoritheMan, and no others. I make no claims about any others, though totally suspect something for Gustav. And why are you bringing hurricanes like Allen into it... the technology to do weather mod certainly wouldn't have existed then.

That being said, btw, I'm not here to beat it to death, only to throw it out for consideration, as storm after storm seems to defy almost all prediction, especially in terms of questions like, "Why isn't it intensifying, or creating a LLC, as conditions are perfect for that?"

Ask yourself how many times you've heard that comment in here over the last three years.

I obviously don't know, but I think it's possible, and think, now, that it's actual.

Again, that's all I have to say about it for tonight. Let's see what Alex does next.

Jo


I saw the radar images also. What appeared as geometric shapes and holes clearly in many of the systems. WM has existed for a long time and has gotten infinitely more sophisticated. It's a no brainer. Our Secretary of Defense alluded to it in a shocking quote in 1999. With the technology that exists now that didn't before why is it so hard to believe?
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132. IKE
Caribbean threat on the original GFS at 162 hours....




...at 180 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Fl30258713:
Could the ULL over LA moving east and ULL over the Bahamas moving East end up creating a trough that would weaken the HP in the GOM?

I don't have a good grasp of where the ULL's are in the atmosphere in relation to the HP or how they interact.
Those are in the mid to upper atmosphere, in a position either to create shear or aid in outflow, but not to steer the system at the surface.

Note how the huge symmetric upper anticyclone that was over Alex yesterday has now been partially eroded towards the NE by the NW Gulf ULL, but I do not think the ULL had any effect on the of steering the surface system, IMO.
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Parallel GFS at 78 hours





Looks like they need to fix the Parallel GFS, that can't be a system on the west coast of Florida at 138 hours :(


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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update


Alex slows as it exits the Yucatan: What are the implications to track and intensity?


Morning 456, glad you're back - hope you're feeling better for good now.
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127. MahFL
If I remember correctly though there is not much in S TX but cattle ranches and oil wells ?
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Good Morning all...I see Alex is still with us. It's gonna be a long day of watching and reading this blog....
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125. IKE
Then again, maybe Corpus Christi won't be okay based on the GFS 6Z at 90 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Could the ULL over LA moving east and ULL over the Bahamas moving West end up creating a trough that would weaken the HP in the GOM?

I don't have a good grasp of where the ULL's are in the atmosphere in relation to the HP or how they interact.
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122. IKE
Here's the longitude/latitude of Corpus Christi....Lat/Lon: 27.8° N 97.4° W

NHC has Alex crossing the coast near 25N.

They should be okay unless the NHC changes the course further north.

Then again Alex has a mind of his own and may fool all of us, so Who's Zoomin Who?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
What is interesting is the difference between the models insisting on a WSW-SW turn after landfall vs. the ones showing a NW-N turn has remained fairly consistent for awhile now.

That could end up being a big difference when it comes to possibly severe inland flooding, which I believe is the biggest killer of all dangers.
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06Z GFS shows weak system coming ashore south of Corpus Christi in about three days.
06Z NAM shows system heading for S.Tx, looping with center reforming, and still offshore after 84 hr.
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Quoting StormW:


Keep in mind though, we got wx offices out that way that are doing soundings every 6 hours, so models should do a little better...then we have a G4 flight going up tonight.


oh i know, and after we get all that extra info in and input into the models this evening, i believe the nhc will know where alex is going...
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The ULL over Louisiana is definitely causing some issues for Alex - look at the recon data and you see a very distinct wind shift as they pass from the area the ULL dominates to the area of Alex's outflow. Yesterday his outflow extended north all the way inland, but now he only owns about the south GOM.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


:( I hate being 4 hours behind you guys. It's 2am here and the only reason I'm up was to finish Calculus homework lol. I'll probably be right back up in 4 hours to do my thing too....guess we all like to get started at 6 sharp!

Have a good night/morning all. Zzzzzz.....
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111. IKE
Quoting Claudette1234:
Hello,

GFS 06Z has change a little now landing in Corpus Christi.


78 hours shows a Brownsville,TX hit(btwntx08 hometown) or just north of there...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858



im having a hard time believing this thing is gonna get even as north as corpus christi...

i think today will be the day models zero in on an area 50 miles north of brownsville to 100 miles down northern mexicos coastline...

in fact i think the nhc will have alex nailed after today...
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What i am afraid off is that the ridge comes in 2-3 days later then forecasted.
What would this mean for Alex?
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lots of TS this morning here in southern Miss. Should be a fun drive to work.
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I see a TS Allison type rain event in the works.
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95 IKE "6Z GFS takes Alex toward northern Mexico and Brownsville,TX. through 48 hours...."

Use the GreatCircleMapper in post65 for a bit of a giggle.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Hello,

GFS 06Z has change a little now landing in Corpus Christi.
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Quoting StormW:


No...you are seeing 100% correct. However, a quick review of Water Vapor loop imagery indicates the shortwave ULL is progressing due east, and moisture is approaching from the west. Alex is so large, that he's gonna eat that shortwave over LA.


thank you for the answer, i figured as much...as you can see already, some of the most outer bands to the north of alex are already moistening the air ahead of him...

do you have any opinion on the stall overnight, and has it changed your outlook on to exactly how far north he might make it now?
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Quoting watchingnva:


all depends on what the ridge that will build back in wants to do with alex...northwest for how long before being pushed west onshore is the question...


What if the ridge is to weak?
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Quoting apocalyps:


One of the possible solutions, i guess,lol
A more northern track has the same chance at this moment.


all depends on what the ridge that will build back in wants to do with alex...northwest for how long before being pushed west onshore is the question...
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Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS takes Alex toward northern Mexico and Brownsville,TX. through 48 hours....


One of the possible solutions, i guess,lol
A more northern track has the same chance at this moment.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.