Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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197. IKE
Five day precip...."wow".....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
196. MahFL
More colder cloudtops now.
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can someone answer my question...


why is everyone forecasting a major storm when shear is ripping it apart right now
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Most of the time we never get a hit when it creeps up from the BOC; so I really see more Houston type storm and Stepanie Abrams is in La. lol
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Quoting StormW:


Darlin', I'll know a lot more once he starts a definitive move...and as today wears on so I can see how the trof and ridge out west are playing out. I am almost finished with analysis, and I'll have my track thoughts in it. Just want to take a close look at a couple more things, regarding possible track.

Morning Storm - thanks for keeping us informed as always! I think we need to send you an extra coffee pot!
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I thought SAL wasn't very high this year...(just asking =))


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time=
Map of the SAL
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1388
I am glad Dr Carver mentioned the entire Tx coast. Seems there is a term of what I like to call "model persistence trending:.

Good example was Rita, (and many other). Four days out it had a beeline toward Corpus, and it seemed that with every new advisory the cone had crept up the coast 25 miles.

Also am concerned if the N/E landfall trend continues, and what will happen to intensity. MH would not be out the question.
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Quoting tramp96:
A lot of SAL to contend with.


I thought SAL wasn't very high this year...(just asking =))
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189. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Ike, I agree a Dolly type storm.


It looks close, doesn't it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1000 mb reported by HH about 100-125 miles north of the center
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting IKE:
African wave reaching the Atlantic...


wow
and morning everyone
Hi stormW! Be back soon need some serious caffeine. BTW stormW I posted a comment on your blog had a question yesterday.
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186. IKE
Quoting biloxidaisy:
*sigh* Oil and tar balls have now made it to Ocean Springs, Pascagoula and Biloxi shorelines. :( :( :( I hope the track for Alex holds true (and by some grace of mother nature that he weakens before landfall)..


Looks like a strong onshore flow this week for the middle and eastern GOM. Expect more oil.....

MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
430 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7
TO 8 FT EXCEPT TO 10 FT NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL. N OF 25N E TO SE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 25N.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT. N OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS S PORTION.
.WED AND THU...S OF 26N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8
FT. N OF 26N S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...W OF 88W SE TO S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. E OF 88W E
TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

$$
GMZ086-281530-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
430 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.TODAY...S OF 26N E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. N OF 26N
SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS S OF
25N.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7
TO 9 FT. N OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
TSTMS S OF 25N.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.THU AND FRI...S OF 26N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT. N OF 26N S TO SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$
FORECASTER DGS

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
African wave reaching the Atlantic...
A lot of SAL to contend with.
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1388
Uh guys I said i needed a little rain here in Corpus; I will be more careful what I wish for next time here in Corpus.
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183. amd
Quoting sporteguy03:


I said this yesterday if it hits here Kenedy County, TX this is the best place for it to hit in Texas where Brett hit. Fourth least populated county in the US. Less then 1,000 people live in the county.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenedy_County,_Texas


yep, hurricane bret hit there in 1999 and only caused 60 million dollars in damage despite being a cat 3 at landfall.

that would be the absolute best place for landfall in the us if it comes to that.
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Good Morning All,

The locat MET's in the Baton Rouge area reported this morning that "even with a South Texas landfall, we could expect 3 to 7 inches of rain in the area from outer bands".
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Still think 25n 70w get's more interesting all the time.
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Quoting IKE:
African wave reaching the Atlantic...

Morning Ike, I agree a Dolly type storm.
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*sigh* Oil and tar balls have now made it to Ocean Springs, Pascagoula and Biloxi shorelines. :( :( :( I hope the track for Alex holds true (and by some grace of mother nature that he weakens before landfall)..
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178. IKE
African wave reaching the Atlantic...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858



can someone explain to me why people think this is strengthening it looks like it is getting sheered from the NW right now
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
176. MahFL
Quoting sporteguy03:


I said this yesterday if it hits here Kenedy County, TX this is the best place for it to hit in Texas where Brett hit. Fourth least populated county in the US. Less then 1,000 people live in the county.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenedy_County,_Texas


That's what I meant.
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175. MahFL
The deep convection is expanding gradually.
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Quoting IKE:
Here's the longitude/latitude of Corpus Christi....Lat/Lon: 27.8° N 97.4° W

NHC has Alex crossing the coast near 25N.

They should be okay unless the NHC changes the course further north.

Then again Alex has a mind of his own and may fool all of us, so Who's Zoomin Who?


I said this yesterday if it hits here Kenedy County, TX this is the best place for it to hit in Texas where Brett hit. Fourth least populated county in the US. Less then 1,000 people live in the county.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenedy_County,_Texas
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Quoting StormW:


Darlin', I'll know a lot more once he starts a definitive move...and as today wears on so I can see how the trof and ridge out west are playing out. I am almost finished with analysis, and I'll have my track thoughts in it. Just want to take a close look at a couple more things, regarding possible track.


Thanks Storm....I will anxiously await your analysis...
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Recon has found 1002 mb pressure and still no where near the center we may have a sub 190 system here although I think the winds are about the same
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
170. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
that is about 1.2 million people


And I'm sure 99.99999% of them want no part of a major cane.



Shear map....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
it sure looks like he is being sheared
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting OSMS:


Brownsville pop. 160,000
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Metro Area pop. 710,000
Corpus Christi pop. 290,000
Harlingen pop. 60,000
Kingsville pop. 30,000
Alice pop. 20,000

Thanks.
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that is about 1.2 million people
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
165. OSMS
Quoting MahFL:

Like I said MOSTLY ranches and oil. I heard that on the TV one time so it must be true......


Brownsville pop. 160,000
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Metro Area pop. 710,000
Corpus Christi pop. 290,000
Harlingen pop. 60,000
Kingsville pop. 30,000
Alice pop. 20,000
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164. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Watches should go up tomorrow.


Sounds right.

Good luck to all SE Texas bloggers/Mexico with Alex.

Life is easier with it going somewhere else.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


Watches should go up tomorrow.


Morning Storm, What's your thinking on Alex? Think it's gonna be a Matagorda Bay to South Texas event or do you forsee anymore Northward movement of this?

I remember watching the "cone" with Ike and it inched it's way up the Texas coast for a couple of days...sure not ready to have to deal with down trees in this heat
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Quoting aspectre:
27 flibinite "...as I said, I've seen 4-5 instances, on radars I certainly don't control, of pulsed... somethings... being "fired" into hurricanes..."

Nothing mysterious if you've been following the sciences. Nasa has been conducting direct research on lightning over the last few or ten years.
Early on, they used rockets trailing thin conducting copper wires from the ground. Kinda like wire-guided anti-tank missles but without the explosives.

Not that explosives were needed. Like a very TALL lightning rod, the wire would attract a leader bolt that would instantly vaporize the copper, turning it into a highly conductive ion pathway for the MUCH larger return bolt to follow with a KABOOM that puts chemical explosives to shame.

A little later, Nasa discovered that it could replace the rocket&wire when UltraViolet lasers became powerful enough. The UVlasers would ionize the air itself to create a highly conductive pathway to attract&guide lightning strikes.
Part of the "Star Wars" anti-missile plans in the 1980s called for an orbiting X-ray laser satellite. The power was supposed to come from a nuclear explosion, so it was a one-time shot.
Also, my brother-in-law believes the newer anti-counterfeit paper money has some special properties so that "the government can count his money from space satellites".
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At least there are some good news for those affected by the oil spill. This latest track given by the NHC seems to be pretty favorable for us. Unfortunately Texas might end up dealing with a major Hurricane by the end of the week, but Louisiana and Mississippi would be far affected due to the spill, so it is the lesser of two evils I guess. NHC seems to be more confident on the track and three day tracs are very accurate so I think that I can exhale for now.
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Recon is heading into the system
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting MahFL:

Like I said MOSTLY ranches and oil. I heard that on the TV one time so it must be true......

Oh, my, well if you heard it on TV, of course it is true. You believe everything the Weather Channel has to say too???
How about you go visit Texas and then decide. There is so much more to that beautiful State that I grew up in than freaking cattle and oil wells. Check it out, you might be impressed.
"Don't mess with Texas!"
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HWRF, has the lowest 24 hr error when it comes to track.
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153. MahFL
Will Stephanie get a wet T-Shirt ?
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LinkMap of texas
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1388
great Sat link
Link
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149. IKE
Monday morning questions....

(1)When does Cantore head to Brownsville? Stephanie Abrams, hyped up, in Corpus Christi?

(2)When do watches go up?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
27 flibinite "...as I said, I've seen 4-5 instances, on radars I certainly don't control, of pulsed... somethings... being "fired" into hurricanes..."

Nothing mysterious if you've been following the sciences. Nasa has been conducting direct experimental research on lightning over the last few or fifteen years.
Early on, they used rockets trailing thin conducting copper wires from the ground. Kinda like wire-guided anti-tank missles but without the explosives.

Not that explosives were needed. Like a very TALL lightning rod, the wire would attract a leader bolt that would instantly vaporize the copper, turning it into a highly conductive ion pathway for the MUCH larger return bolt to follow with a KABOOM that puts chemical explosives to shame.

More recently when UltraViolet lasers became powerful enough, Nasa discovered that it could replace their rocket&wire system. The UVlasers would ionize the air itself to create a highly conductive pathway to attract&guide lightning strikes.
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147. MahFL
But does S TX have the Internet ? lol.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.