Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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247. IKE
Looks like the center is near 20.0N and 91.6W.

Earlier advisory had...Location: 19.7°N 91.6°W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting whipster:


The reason Corpus exists is because of refineries and petrochemical plants...hard to do without oil I reckon...

I grew up here in Texas around those stinky things all my life saying it smells like money, but now all it smells like is death.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
looks like winds calm out at the center tooo
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting cctexgal:

Hey I love that beach: and don't think the Pensacolans {sp?} aren't doin a little cursing today.
We all love the beach but most of drive to get too it .How did you get there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
pressure is sub 990

989.7 to be exact
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
000
URNT15 KNHC 281139
AF306 0501A ALEX HDOB 19 20100628
113000 2004N 09126W 9253 00598 9909 +215 +145 169022 024 034 006 00
113030 2004N 09127W 9273 00576 9905 +225 +148 168017 018 025 004 00
113100 2003N 09129W 9297 00550 9901 +225 +152 165014 015 021 004 00
113130 2003N 09131W 9316 00530 9897 +225 +156 157011 013 021 004 00
113200 2002N 09132W 9266 00577 9897 +225 +161 172005 007 021 003 00
113230 2002N 09134W 9246 00595 9897 +224 +165 292002 005 020 003 00
113300 2002N 09135W 9250 00594 9899 +225 +168 327006 007 999 999 03
113330 2003N 09137W 9243 00601 9898 +225 +171 359008 009 019 004 00
113400 2004N 09138W 9248 00597 9899 +225 +174 030013 015 021 003 00
113430 2005N 09139W 9249 00598 9902 +229 +176 044017 018 023 003 00
113500 2006N 09140W 9249 00602 9905 +227 +178 047019 020 026 003 00
113530 2007N 09141W 9244 00609 9907 +235 +180 048024 025 025 003 00
113600 2008N 09142W 9250 00606 9910 +238 +182 048025 027 031 003 00
113630 2009N 09144W 9245 00615 9914 +238 +184 050032 034 033 004 00
113700 2011N 09145W 9252 00612 9920 +228 +186 050034 035 034 002 00
113730 2012N 09146W 9249 00622 9928 +222 +187 054034 035 034 003 00
113800 2013N 09147W 9249 00626 9934 +220 +187 057034 034 034 003 00
113830 2014N 09148W 9249 00629 9938 +218 +187 057034 035 036 003 00
113900 2015N 09150W 9246 00635 9942 +214 +185 060037 039 037 003 00
113930 2016N 09151W 9250 00635 9947 +214 +184 063038 040 038 004 00
$$
;


They found 989.7, still rounds up to 990.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


There's still one 48 kt measurement without suspect data, looks like there was a lot of suspect data in that last pass though lol.


I say they go with 50 knts at the next update though
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting cctexgal:
All the surfers are runnin to the coast here! By the way we had a neet "Hands across the beach" demonstration here to protest deep water drilling this weekend! I just stand in the water and yell at all of them!! Makes me feel better,
Quoting MahFL:


That does not really answer my question, maybe you walked 5 miles to the beach, protested and walked back home ?


The reason Corpus exists is because of refineries and petrochemical plants...hard to do without oil I reckon...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
SMRF found 52 knt surface winds... with suspect data though



There's still one 48 kt measurement without suspect data, looks like there was a lot of suspect data in that last pass though lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
238. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Hmm, let's see what it'll do without it. It's under 15-20 knots of shear currently as shown by both SSD and CIMSS (for once they actually show the same amount of shear over a certain area..)

Is the storm still stalled? Because shear is increasing right over it but decreasing ahead of it.


Moving NW@6mph.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tramp96:
Lol.No they floated on fairy dust.

Hey I love that beach: and don't think the Pensacolans {sp?} aren't doin a little cursing today.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
SMRF found 52 knt surface winds... with suspect data though

Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting RecordSeason:
Quoting samiam1234:


not possible. that means this thing will have a 600 mile radius to get to LA. That makes it a 1200 mile storm. Keep in mind Ike was a 900 mile storm and was the largest in Atlantic, this thing is much much smaller then Ike, not even going to give Galveston any rain


===

Alex is easily a 1200 mile storm. There is some evidence that it is closer to a 2000 mile storm, as it continues advecting moisture from Darby, which is about 12 degrees west and 6 degrees south of Alex, and it continues to have feeder bands in the south central caribbean, which is about 12 degrees east and 4 or 5 degrees south of it's location.

If you do not believe this, you can verify it using shortwave infrared, as the structure is clearly spiral feeder bands gradually falling into Alex' CoC.

It has always been a very large storm even weeks ago when it was just a wave. The night after it entered the Caribbean I even wrote "Mother of all tropical waves" on the blog when it became obvious how large it was...then it ate several other waves and became even bigger.

Big Storm


Thank you for backing it up. I actually was thinking the same thing when I posted above in response to what was said lol. We're getting rain bands here in Miami. And the skies have been overcast today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MahFL:


Did you perchance drive to the beach ?
Lol.No they floated on fairy dust.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
URNT15 KNHC 281129
AF306 0501A ALEX HDOB 18 20100628
112000 2026N 09105W 9247 00665 9982 +202 +146 136050 050 036 003 00
112030 2025N 09106W 9244 00664 9980 +201 +146 137050 050 036 004 00
112100 2023N 09107W 9250 00658 9978 +200 +146 138052 052 037 004 00
112130 2022N 09108W 9250 00656 9976 +201 +145 138053 054 040 006 00
112200 2021N 09109W 9251 00653 9975 +195 +145 139053 054 039 007 00
112230 2020N 09110W 9248 00654 9973 +195 +143 139050 051 043 011 00
112300 2019N 09111W 9245 00656 9970 +193 +141 133054 055 040 011 00
112330 2018N 09112W 9249 00644 9961 +196 +139 132056 057 041 008 00
112400 2017N 09113W 9248 00643 9959 +190 +138 135053 056 043 010 00
112430 2015N 09114W 9253 00633 9955 +192 +136 143054 056 048 012 03
112500 2014N 09115W 9244 00640 9953 +189 +136 140055 057 045 011 00
112530 2013N 09116W 9255 00625 9950 +192 +135 139051 053 046 012 00
112600 2012N 09117W 9259 00625 9951 +191 +136 144044 046 044 013 00
112630 2011N 09118W 9242 00635 9946 +191 +135 144045 046 042 011 00
112700 2010N 09119W 9254 00621 9941 +195 +136 152045 047 046 010 00
112730 2009N 09120W 9245 00625 9936 +194 +137 152044 046 046 011 03
112800 2008N 09121W 9253 00611 9931 +194 +138 157044 047 052 016 03
112830 2007N 09122W 9244 00618 9926 +196 +140 165042 044 048 015 00
112900 2006N 09123W 9249 00612 9922 +202 +142 164033 034 041 009 03
112930 2005N 09124W 9244 00613 9917 +205 +143 169030 032 036 007 03
$$
;
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Sorry didn't get your meaning; but yes I did drive cause I'd have to swim across a ship channel!! But otherwise I'd ride my horse.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Quoting IKE:


Correction...west of it.


Hmm, let's see what it'll do without it. It's under 15-20 knots of shear currently as shown by both SSD and CIMSS (for once they actually show the same amount of shear over a certain area..)

Is the storm still stalled? Because shear is increasing right over it but decreasing ahead of it.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
229. MahFL
Quoting cctexgal:
Hon, I live 5 miles from it!!


That does not really answer my question, maybe you walked 5 miles to the beach, protested and walked back home ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
recon

56 knt flight level winds
48 knt surface winds
991.7 mb pressure

not at center yet
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting IKE:


It looks close, doesn't it.

Yes it does, As long as its not a major cane, from what i hear they could use the rain.I give it a 20% chance to get up to Houston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning. The fact that Alex is a very slow mover at the moment gives it a nice window of opportunity for strengthening over the next 24 hours. After that, the sheer bands of 30-40 knots to the North of the storm, starting at about 23N would need to retro-grade or dmininsh over the long term in terms of intensity issues....Is there still an anti-cyclone around Alex that could off-set the longer term sheer in the Gulf right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hon, I live 5 miles from it!!
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
224. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
223. MahFL
Quoting cctexgal:
All the surfers are runnin to the coast here! By the way we had a neet "Hands across the beach" demonstration here to protest deep water drilling this weekend! I just stand in the water and yell at all of them!! Makes me feel better,


Did you perchance drive to the beach ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
50knt flight level winds
998 mb pressure
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
221. IKE
Quoting IKE:


The high went east/SE of it.


Correction...west of it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Morning nrti, great to see you.

Can you post a link to where that image is located? If you could send it to me in a wumail that would be great. Got to head out. TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All the surfers are runnin to the coast here! By the way we had a neet "Hands across the beach" demonstration here to protest deep water drilling this weekend! I just stand in the water and yell at all of them!! Makes me feel better,
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Good morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
217. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Where did it's anticyclone go? lol
I can't see it reaching major cane status without it.

Maybe if the shear to the north lets up enough.
Shear tendency:


The high went east/SE of it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
06Z GFDL 78 hours


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10872
I never said "it was covered in oil." I said oil and TAR BALLS were making it's way onto the shores! You should not read a statement and take it out of context. There is also a nice size sheen on the north side of Deer Island to be concerned about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morn Ike. Nice looking system coming off of Africa. Thanx for pointing that out.


Dolly part two in s.Texas? Looking possible. Oz will be there.
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Quoting samiam1234:


not possible. that means this thing will have a 600 mile radius to get to LA. That makes it a 1200 mile storm. Keep in mind Ike was a 900 mile storm and was the largest in Atlantic, this thing is much much smaller then Ike, not even going to give Galveston any rain


You think so? I'm in Miami and I have overcast skies here plus we've had sporadic showers. I can tell you one thing, I'm not an expert but looking at the satellite images of the GOM and the Caribbean, the rain and clouds are coming from the direction of Alex. Feeder bands? I reckon so. And IKE just posted above the precipitation forecast map.
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Quoting IKE:


And I'm sure 99.99999% of them want no part of a major cane.



Shear map....



Where did it's anticyclone go? lol
I can't see it reaching major cane status without it.

Maybe if the shear to the north lets up enough.
Shear tendency:
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Morning all.

For those that missed it yesterday...SC Monkeys...Photos and story. Interesting read while waiting on data.

Off to class, see y'all later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
209. amd
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
can someone answer my question...


why is everyone forecasting a major storm when shear is ripping it apart right now


Unfortunaly, that's a bit of an exaggeration, IMO. Even though Alex isn't perfectly organized, shortwave IR suggests that the center is located on the NW side of the big convection complex, and convection is beginning to build again on the west side.

Shortwave IR
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208. MahFL
It's just taking time to re-organise, like most stoems do.
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207. OSMS
Quoting biloxidaisy:
*sigh* Oil and tar balls have now made it to Ocean Springs, Pascagoula and Biloxi shorelines. :( :( :( I hope the track for Alex holds true (and by some grace of mother nature that he weakens before landfall)..


The beaches of Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, and Biloxi are NOT covered in oil. They found one blob in Gulf Park Estates. Please get your facts straight before making a comment like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
160 guygee "Part of the "Star Wars" anti-missile plans in the 1980s called for an orbiting X-ray laser satellite."

There's an interesting and an even more amusing sidelight to that tale... perhaps best left off of the blog during hurricane season.
Care to have me WUmail it to you(much)later today? Gotta get some winks in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh boy that is not good, i was hoping Alex would stay on the more west direction now it wobled a bit and is heading more nw at a much slower speed than yesterday at this time.So now what i guess the distance numbers become a major factor with this storm.I'm certainnly not a meterologist by any means but i do look at the sat loops, the circulation, convection, very high cloud tops very cold temps up there, all indications of a monster developing.You may now be considering Alex to be the first Atlantic Hurricane and first major hurricane i guess the 20 knot wind shear didn't even phase Alex the slightest and the land interaction was not quite enough to disrupt the circulation enough.That is a very large feeder band to the right side of the storm right now i hope it doesn't get enveloped in to the main circulation.Well that is my 2 cent's worth, i just wish u guys in the gulf coast could get a break from mother nature.If anyone has any interesting tools like xcool has or sites i can look at u can email me at mikeyje99@hotmail.com, i'll be praying for u whomever is affected by this,and in return maybe u can pray for us in the canadian maritimes were not immune to tropical disturbances, especailly in the month's of august to oct, they usually go into there extra tropical transistions here because of the very cool water temps but if they collide with another low then its big trouble well that' another topic for reasearch. God bless stay safe, Michael Brown Canada
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204. IKE
Quoting samiam1234:


not possible. that means this thing will have a 600 mile radius to get to LA. That makes it a 1200 mile storm. Keep in mind Ike was a 900 mile storm and was the largest in Atlantic, this thing is much much smaller then Ike, not even going to give Galveston any rain


See post 197.

.....................
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 AM EDT MON JUN 28 2010



DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND TODAY...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A MODERATE RISK OVER THE WESTERN BIG
BEND ON TUESDAY...


AT 5 AM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME ON MONDAY...JUNE 28TH...TROPICAL
STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED AT 19.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 91.6 DEGREES
WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. ALEX IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
AWAY FROM OUR COASTAL WATERS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. AS IT REMAINS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SOME HIGHER SWELLS SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH OUR BEACHES.
THESE SWELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ALSO...
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY AS SOME MOISTURE FROM ALEX INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK OR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT RAINFALL REPORTS
WILL BE WELCOMED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

$$

17-GOULD
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
203. MahFL
Shear is not ripping it apart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning Ike, StormW. I have to say, with the thunderstorms in the area of Mobile this morning, it feels rather nice outside. Should have waited till today to work on the roof(except for that pesky lightnin' problem).With the discussions on Alex and possible track, I admit, I am glad to be in Mobile.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Warm water; High Pressure buggin out and Low front pushing eastward with poor steering currents in the Gulf and slow forward speed?
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 141
Quoting tramp96:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time=
Map of the SAL


wow...yeah that's a lot of SAL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
199. IKE
Quoting cctexgal:
Most of the time we never get a hit when it creeps up from the BOC; so I really see more Houston type storm and Stepanie Abrams is in La. lol


LOL....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Crawls:
Good Morning All,

The locat MET's in the Baton Rouge area reported this morning that "even with a South Texas landfall, we could expect 3 to 7 inches of rain in the area from outer bands".


not possible. that means this thing will have a 600 mile radius to get to LA. That makes it a 1200 mile storm. Keep in mind Ike was a 900 mile storm and was the largest in Atlantic, this thing is much much smaller then Ike, not even going to give Galveston any rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
197. IKE
Five day precip...."wow".....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.